Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadow‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 10 – 12.

This weekend, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist opens in 3,334 theaters, Warcraft debuts in 3,400 locations, and Now You See Me 2 plays in 3,232 theaters.

#1 – The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist

Our pick for the top spot this week is The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist (read our review). The film is a sequel to the surprise 2013 horror hit The Conjuring, which made $137.1 million during its domestic run, including $41.8 million in its opening weekend. Once again, famed horror director James Wan works behind the camera, and he has assembled a number of hits on his résumé over the past few years. His Furious 7 grossing $353 million was an expected result, but Wan has also had success with the Insidious films (including $83.5 for Insidious 2) and the aforementioned Conjuring. With stars Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga back in their roles, the many fans of the original should be excited to catch the followup.

Conjuring 2 has benefitted from strong reviews, giving it a wave of positive buzz to ride as it enters theaters. The reaction may not be as enthusiastic as before, but the word-of-mouth is still there, which will help the film’s commercial prospects. Horror has long been one of the most popular genres, but it’s been a while since there was an entry for viewers to look forward to. This will most likely do the trick and be another winner for Wan. Projections have it pegged for $33.5 million in the first three days.

 

conjuring 2 review farmiga wilson Box Office Prediction: Warcraft vs. TMNT 2

#2 – Now You See Me 2

Coming in second should be Now You See Me 2 (read our review), the sequel to the surprise magic/crime hit from 2013. The original film’s strong numbers ($117.7 million domestic total) indicated that there was interest in the project, despite the mixed reviews. Even though the reaction is skewed more to the negative side of the spectrum this time around, it should still do fine financially. Most of the first film’s cast (with the exception of Isla Fisher) have returned to their roles, and the followup contains a fun new addition in Harry Potter star Daniel Radcliffe. Now You See Me 2 obviously won’t break any records, but it could be a refreshing change-of-pace from the multitude of special effects heavy tentpoles and serve as a nice palate cleanser. Tracking indicates a $27 million opening weekend.

#3 – Warcraft

Though it’s one of the challengers in our header, we feel Warcraft will have to settle for a third place finish in its opening weekend. The video game adaptation is doing great business internationally (including new highs in China), but the mostly negative reviews (read ours) have placed it in a tough hole domestically. It’s true that Warcraft is one of the most popular MMORPG titles out there, but Hollywood has a long, troubled history of games translating well to film. There’s yet to be one that’s broken out and ushered in a new trend, and it doesn’t look like Warcraft will be the one to reverse those fortunes.

The biggest obstacle the film has to overcome is that many claim it’s a work more for die-hard fans of the game than something accessible for general audiences. While there are millions of people who play it, there are just as many who are uninitiated and won’t see the appeal of what looks like a generic fantasy movie. If the response was stronger, then Warcraft would have had a good shot of becoming a success here in the States, but it ultimately looks like it will have to hope the overseas numbers push it into the black. It’s only projected to make about $21 million opening weekend.

Warcraft Thrall Box Office Prediction: Warcraft vs. TMNT 2

#4 – Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Look for last week’s champ, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (read our review), to fall to fourth in its second weekend. The sequel was not able to replicate the success of its predecessor, opening to a soft $35.3 million in its first three days. The demand clearly isn’t there, and with three new wide releases opening, it’s unlikely TMNT 2 can turn things around. It’ll take a sizable hit this weekend.

#5 – X-Men: Apocalypse

Rounding out the top five should be X-Men: Apocalypse (read our review), which came in second last week with $22.8 million. The latest in the long running superhero franchise has proven to be one of the series’ lowest earners, but the popularity of the brand should keep it hanging around the top of the charts for one more week.

Last Week’s Recap

Our picks:

  1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
  2. X-Men: Apocalypse
  3. Me Before You
  4. The Angry Birds Movie
  5. Alice Through the Looking Glass

Actuals:

  1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
  2. X-Men: Apocalypse
  3. Me Before You
  4. Alice Through the Looking Glass
  5. The Angry Birds Movie

Next Week: Finding Dory, Central Intelligence and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office Opening Weekend Projections)

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