Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from last week and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of January 6 – 8, 2017.

This weekend, Underworld: Blood Wars opens in 3,070 theaters, Hidden Figures expands to 2,471 locations, and A Monster Calls expands nationwide to 1,523 locations.

#1 – Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Coming in first again should be Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (read our review), which has dominated the marketplace since it opened back in December. Though the film has received some tough competition from Sing, it’s remained in the #1 spot for three weekends in a row, taking advantage of its strong word-of-mouth and limited competition. Business may be starting to slow down a bit now that the initial hype has worn down, but there still isn’t much opening that can pose a direct threat. Most of the new releases this week are either poorly received critically or targeting a different audience than Star Wars, so it likely will win another weekend.

Orson Krennic in the Zone Box Office Prediction: Underworld 5 vs. Rogue One

#2 – Sing

Coming in second again should be Sing (read our review), which has finished in this spot the last two weekends. Since opening over the holiday season, it’s grossed $190.6 million domestically and has enjoyed a relative monopoly of the family audience. It is still one of the only kids movies playing in theaters right now, and given that Sing is holding well throughout its run so far, there’s little reason to suspect a major drop-off is on the horizon.

 

#3 – Hidden Figures

Our pick for second is Hidden Figures (read our review), the true story drama based on the tale of three women who used their mathematical and scientific expertise to significantly aid NASA’s space missions in the 1960s. It has been performing well in limited release, making $2.8 million domestically since Christmas Day. The film has received widely positive reviews and is gaining some traction on the awards circuit, generating some Oscar buzz. For moviegoers looking for an inspirational, feel-good movie, this is definitely as good a pick as any.

While Hidden Figures might struggle a bit to overtake the holdovers, it should do just fine in its wide debut. The current projections have it pegged for a strong $21 million over the weekend, which would be a great haul for Fox. It does have two Golden Globe nominations under its belt (including one for Octavia Spencer’s performance), so cinephiles inclined to catch up on the various contenders will want to check it out.

hidden figures glen powell taraji p henson Box Office Prediction: Underworld 5 vs. Rogue One

#4 – A Monster Calls

Coming in fourth should be A Monster Calls (read our review), the adaptation of the acclaimed novel from director J.A. Bayona. The film has been the recipient of considerable critical praise, with many hailing it as an emotional and beautifully crafted story about dealing with grief. Like Hidden FiguresA Monster Calls has been playing in limited release since December 23, but it has not been as successful as the NASA drama. So far, it’s grossed $88,791 Stateside, but it’s only been playing in 4 theaters (Hidden Figures was in 25). That said, the per theater average has not been all that strong, raising questions about its overall appeal.

Because of that factor, it’s difficult to say that A Monster Calls will surge up the charts now that it’s expanding (and it’s still only playing in 1,523 theaters – fewer than its main competition). However, there should be a fair amount of interest in the film due to the popularity of the source material and the cast, which includes big names like Liam Neeson and Sigourney Weaver.

#5 – Underworld: Blood Wars

Rounding out the top five should be Underworld: Blood Wars, the fifth installment in the Underworld franchise. The property has proven to be moderately successful over the years, consistently scoring opening weekends in the $20 million range. Ever since the second entry, the series has called January home and reached new heights back in 2012 when Underworld Awakening opened. The hope is that Blood Wars will be able to continue that trend, but the film has been panned critically, which could significantly hamstring its commercial appeal. None of the previous movies had to face off against a Star Wars movie, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Tracking indicates an opening weekend of $13.5 million.

Last Week’s Recap

These are the predictions and results for the weekend of December 23 – 25, as we did not run a Box Office Prediction column last week.

Our Picks:

  1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  2. Sing
  3. Passengers
  4. Assassin’s Creed
  5. Why Him?

Actuals:

  1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  2. Sing
  3. Passengers
  4. Why Him?
  5. Assassin’s Creed

Next Week: Live by Night, Patriots Day, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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