Seriously, I’m asking: will Tropic Thunder, the much-hyped comedy starring Ben Stiller, Jack Black, and Robert Downey Jr. (in black face, no less,) really have enough, well, thunder, to knock The Dark Knight out of its top spot at the box office on its one-month anniversary?
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If you think about it, Tropic Thunder has a lot of the same things going for it that Dark Knight did:
A) Controversy. Dark Knight had the morose intrigue of Heath Ledger’s final cinematic turn as THE Joker of our time. Tropic Thunder has two major controversies surrounding it: Robert Downey Jr.’s stereotypical portrayal of an African-American, complete with black-face, and, what some “activists” are alleging is the film’s overly-cruel mockery of mentally challenged people. (Regarding Downey in black-face: as a part of that club, I have to say I’m fine with it. Tropic Thunder is a satire, not a spoof, meaning that it’s actually trying to say something right, by way of showing something wrong. And besides, I’m not a hypocrite: if it’s okay for Downey to do a role in iron-face, how can I complain when he does one in black-face?)
But will controversy be enough to fill theater seats? One can never be sure.
B) Buzz. You could probably file it alongside “controversy,” but the reality is that whether dependent on controversy, or independent of it, Tropic Thunder HAS been on people’s mouths for some months now. Combine that fact with the usual media blitz to promote a film–factor in Robert Downey Jr., whose star has gone supernova since Iron Man, and it all adds up to some pretty good momentum going into opening weekend.
C) A good film. Buzz can get a flick through opening night, but soon after, if the finished product isn’t up to snuff, people are going to start talking and word is going to get around. As it stands now, Tropic Thunder has a score of 72 on Metacritic (after 34 reviews), and an impressive 83% on Rotten Tomatoes (after 128 reviews)! (And Screen Rant’s own Vic Holtreman liked it too!)
If audience reactions end up matching critical praise, the quality of Tropic Thunder will likely bring in a large quantity of this week’s movie-going public.
But again: enough of an audience to dethrone The Dark Knight after four weeks on top? If I have to make that call, I gotta go with the Joker’s philosophy: “Everything burns.” Dark Knight has proven to be a juggernaut, but with only the old and infeeble left to see it (a first time), the lure of newer, more light-hearted fare will prove too much for ticket-buyers to resist. C’est la vie.
What do you think: does The Dark Knight have enough box office muscle to hold Tropic Thunder down? Let us know what you think.
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20 Comments
Are you asking if Tropic Thunder will get more than around 20 million this weekend? Then the answer is yes. TDK made approx. 26 million last weekend and it’ll make less this weekend.
Also, we have the clone wars flick coming out as well as the horror flick Mirrors all on top of this Tropic Thunder (which I just returned from). These are all genre films though, Horror is a Niche market, Star Wars for the kids, and the rated R comedy.
Here’s how the weekend will go:
#1 Star Wars
#2 Tropic Thunder
#3 The Dark Knight
#4 Pinapple Express
It could be close. but I’d say TT is easily on par with “Jack Ass 2″ and superior in tone. Compare DK to “Spider-Man 2’s” performance for the same release time and “Tropic Thunder” edges out “Dark Knight” by 2-5M. I actually hope I’m wrong, way wrong. I wouldn’t expect TT to hold that lead for very long though. Anything left in DK’s Ad budget??
Rob, I think you maybe giving the Star Wars flick a little too much credit. Granted, I may be wrong (probably in this case). But I think it won’t do well as people may think. It’ll definitely be up in the top 5. But my guess it’ll be number three at the B.O.
Unfortunately I think Darth Lucas has the 7-12 year old boys held in his icy grip, Ash. From Vic’s review I hold on to hope for the fair gender. Hopefully enough discerning adult fans will tell others how bad it is and they will take the kids to “Wall-E”, “Fly Me To The Moon” or fishing or the water park..
Star Wars Will NOT be no. 1 Tropic Thunder will attract the 18-40 yr old boys, some girls, and (I know the blogosphere forgets about this sometimes,) dinner/movie daters. Late-night stoners will also be at the late showings.
“Dark Knight had the morose intrigue of Heath Ledger’s final cinematic turn as THE Joker of our time.”
The Joker won’t be his final turn.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1054606/
old man, “Darth Lucas”. I love it. Thanks for the laugh!!!
Something has to knock off TDK eventually, and I think RDJ and his buddies might actually do it.
As much as would like to see The Dark Knight take 6 weeks’ worth of #1’s, I really think Tropic Thunder will knock it off. It did $7 million on opening Wednesday and is projected to take in around $40 million for its 5 day haul…which probably will knock TDK off.
I also think a lot of people are getting a little “beaten-over-the-head” by the serious/dark dramas that have littered the end of summer lineups…a good comedy may be what they are waiting for.
I sure hope TT, beats everyone this weekend. Especally the Clone movie.
darth lucas, lol. I like that phrase.
Star Wars has the entire child population and vast majority of its marketing commercials were durings kids programming and the cartoon networks.
At Walmart I saw lots of kids with their parents hording the new toys (it made me sad).
I absolutely hate the new star wars flick personally, but people will still see it because it is star wars.
I think there might be some surprises in store with the turnout for the Clone Wars. Personally I have zero interest in this but the buzz in my workplace and circle of friends has surprised me and everyone I know with a kid has stated they are headed out for it. I dunno, dishing out hard earned cash to watch a Saturday morning cartoon on the big screen doesn’t appeal to me.
With all the Controversy on Thunder, Im sure it will still take top spot this weekend but I just can’t guess on these things anymore.
After seeing T/T today I can say this,,, it offends alot of groups not just the disabled.
From the very first second of the film, the (bitch-Slap) of an R rated movie hits you between the eyes.
There was a black man in the seat in front of me and I could tell he was impressed by Downey’s acting.
We were both cracking up, not so much at the jokes but at Downey’s delivery. Theres one scene where he has the look of Richard Pryor without even delivering a line that was one of the funniest parts.
Downey really steals the movie.
Make sure you get there on time, the opening spoof trailers are halarious.
The Satans alley trailer was one of the funniest parts of the film.
So far Tropic is No 1 !!!!
Star Wars No 2,
And TDK No 3.
both r rele good movies . i dont know which one is better. but i just cant compare a very good action movie with a very good hilarious movie. they both r good i just cant decide which is better [;
uh oh, my prediction is off:
I said earlier in the other thread that:
1. Clone Wars
2. Tropic Thunder
3. TDK
4. Pineapple
totally agree 790, Downey is the friggin man of this film, and his trailer was surprisingly the best one. His character was so friggin funny, even when he’s in the background of a scene or not even speaking, his expressions and everything.
I love that guy
hmm…I wonder if some parents are not taking their kids to see Star Wars because they themselves think its so bad and is ruining Star Wars.
props to those parents, lol. Seriously though, I’m surprised its estimates are so low.
Lmao Rob, during “Satan’s Alley”, for some reason I was thinking theres Spider Man and Iron Man in their first scene together ,,!
Lol,,
(Imo),,,on CloneWars,,,
There’s alot of other options these days for kids, and in a way I think, “yeah” the parents even think this is Yoda turd.
OMG downey jr is HILARIOUS ! i love him hes ssuch a good actor !!!
790, same thoughts here man. I was like, hmm…maybe this is when Stark gives him the Iron Spidey outfit, although I don’t remember them holding hands when Mary Jane was around…
lol. I wonder if that had much to do with asking Tobey to have that guest spot
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