Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Race’s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of February 26 – 28, 2016.
This weekend, Gods of Egypt opens in 3,000 theaters, while both Eddie the Eagle and Triple 9 debut in 2,000 locations.
#1 – Deadpool
Our choice for the top spot once again is Deadpool (read our review), which repeated as #1 last week with $56.4 million. The film remains the most high-profile option currently playing and is still benefitting from the strong word-of-mouth it has garnered since its release. Even though it took a steeper drop during its second weekend than some may have expected (57.4 percent), there’s still a very sizable gap between Deadpool and its “competition.” The Merc With a Mouth is still king.
#2 – Triple 9
Our choice for second is the heist film Triple 9, which features a star-studded ensemble that includes Anthony Mackie, Woody Harrelson, Casey Affleck, and Aaron Paul (among others). Despite the strong roster of actors, none of the Triple 9 thespians can be considered strong box office draws on their own; Mackie has been in some hits, but they’re of the Marvel Studios variety (and not a sign of his own star power). In addition, director John Hillcoat is not known for drawing in large crowds. His last movie, Lawless, brought in $37.4 million in 2012.
Things should be more of the same with Triple 9. It’s entering theaters without much buzz and won’t be helped by the generally mixed early reviews. Those in the mood for a crime thriller will check it out, but it doesn’t appear to have a ton of crossover appeal. Projections have it pegged for an $11.5 million opening weekend, which is slightly higher than what Lawless managed when it premiered.
#3 – Kung Fu Panda 3
Coming in third should be Kung Fu Panda 3 (read our review). The animated sequel has managed to hang in the top five for the length of its theatrical run due to being one of the few options currently playing for the family demographic. Though business has been slowing down for it (just $12.5 million last week), that’s still the case. There’s one week to go until Zootopia enters theaters, so Kung Fu Panda can still have its moment in the sun.
#4 – Gods of Egypt
Our choice for fourth is Gods of Egypt, the new swords and sandals epic. The film seems DOA, given that early reviews have been very negative and it stirred up controversy by being the latest example of Hollywood whitewashing. Gerard Butler has had some commercial success throughout his career, but he has another vehicle opening soon that seems better suited for a wide audience. It’s unlikely that Gods of Egypt can overcome the bad buzz and become a bona fide hit. Most viewers have little interest in seeing it and will go for one of the other movies out there.
#5 – Eddie the Eagle
Rounding out the top five should be Eddie the Eagle. An inspirational sports drama, the film has a tantalizing one-two punch at the top in Taron Egerton and Hugh Jackman. Egerton became a household name last year with the success of Kingsman: The Secret Service ($128.2 million) and Jackman, of course, is a veteran of many box office hits. Unfortunately, it does not look like their pairing will yield lucrative results. Despite positive early reviews, Eddie the Eagle is projected to make only $7.5 million in its first three days – the subject matter of Olympic skiing probably limiting its overall appeal. Moviegoers who enjoy sports films will go see it, but it doesn’t appear it’ll be able to break out of that niche.
Last Week’s Recap
- Kung Fu Panda 3
- How to Be Single
- Kung Fu Panda 3
- The Witch
- How to Be Single
Next Week: Zootopia, London Has Fallen, and more!