Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Transformers: Age of Extinction‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of July 4 – 6, 2014.
This weekend, comedy Tammy debuts in over 3,350 theaters, horror film Deliver Us from Evil opens in 3,000 theaters, and sci-fi found footage movie Earth to Echo is released in 2,800 theaters. The documentary America also expands to 1,000 locations.
#1 – Transformers: Age of Extinction
Look for last week’s champ, Transformers: Age of Extinction (read our review), to repeat in its second weekend. Michael Bay’s latest scored the biggest opening of 2014 by bringing in over $100 million during its first three days. While that figure was undoubtedly frontloaded (as is the case with most tentpoles), the inevitable second week drop-off isn’t going to do much damage. None of the new releases are at the scale to dethrone a major franchise film like this – and even if the decrease is in line with Dark of the Moon (51.9 percent), Transformers will still make more than the projected openings for all the newcomers. With one more week before Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, fans of big-budget entertainment will opt for this one again.
#2 – Tammy
Coming in second should be the new comedy, Tammy. Star Melissa McCarthy has quickly become one of the leading box office draws, appearing in a number of hits over the last few years. Rising to fame with Bridesmaids ($169.1 million), she proved herself as an audience favorite with turns in Identity Thief ($134.5 million) and The Heat ($159.5 million) in 2013. She’s clearly one of the brightest comedic talents working in Hollywood today, and has acquired a strong following.
Tracking indicates a $25 million opening weekend, and Tammy should certainly benefit from a lack of competition. While 22 Jump Street has performed very well during its run, it’s also the only other R-rated comedy on the market. A few weeks have passed since Schmidt and Jenko went undercover again, so fans of the genre will be looking for something new and fresh. With star presence and a filling a demand for a specific demographic, the film should have a great opening en route to a healthy domestic total.
#3 – Deliver Us from Evil
Look for the new horror film Deliver Us from Evil to come in third. Director Scott Derrickson has had a successful career with these types of movies, guiding Sinister (over $48 million) and The Exorcism of Emily Rose (over $75 million) to solid performances. However, those two films did not come out during the middle of summer and faced far less competition than Deliver Us from Evil will. There’s a chance it could break out like The Conjuring last year, but early tracking says that this film won’t achieve that kind of crossover success.
Right now, it’s projected to open at $17 million, which is fairly soft for an entry in a genre that’s so popular. Lacking any big stars to raise awareness and a stacked marketplace, Deliver Us from Evil will do well on it own, but it faces an uphill battle to become a big hit.
#4 – 22 Jump Street
Coming in fourth should be 22 Jump Street (read our review). Phil Lord and Chris Miller have certainly delivered the latest successful comedy sequel, as this film has held very well, tallying $140.2 million as of this writing. It brought in $15.8 million last week to finish second, but now the movie will start to fall down the charts. Tammy will draw in a number of comedy fans, taking away business from 22 Jump Street.
#5 – How to Train Your Dragon 2
Rounding out the top five should be How to Train Your Dragon 2 (read our review). The animated sequel faces some minor competition on the family film front in Earth to Echo, but the DreamWorks offering should still hold well enough to remain near the top of the chart for at least another week. While the demand surprisingly never was all that high, the film still made an additional $13.2 million last weekend, indicating that there is still some audience interest.
#10 – The Fault in our Stars
Despite playing in 2,800 locations and sporting a family-friendly PG rating, we do not expect Earth to Echo to crack the top five. The film has received very little marketing, so awareness is low. It also faces a tough amount of competition from the bigger releases and remaining holdovers, meaning it will be hard to draw attention away from transforming robots, Melissa McCarthy, and scary movies.
That’s it for this week’s breakdown.
Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it’s time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.
Opening in theaters this week (Wide):
- Tammy – 3,350+ theaters
- Deliver us from Evil – 3,000 theaters
- Earth to Echo – 2,800 theaters
Opening in theaters this week (Limited):
- America – 1,000 theaters (expansion)
NOTE: All releases take place on Wednesday, July 2. For the purposes of our game, we will be using the regular 3-day numbers from Friday to Sunday and not the full 5-day intake.
Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.
Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Transformers: Age of Extinction‘s opening): Sal reports that John Swift won with a perfect 15.
For the record, here are our picks from last week – along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).
- #1 – Transformers: Age of Extinction (1)
- #2 – Think Like a Man Too (0)
- #3 – 22 Jump Street (1)
- #4 – How to Train Your Dragon 2 (1)
- #5 – Jersey Boys (1)
- #10 – X-Men: Days of Future Past
- Final Score: 3 points
Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!
Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90
Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)