Now that Transformers: The Last Knight has been playing in theaters for a few weeks, it's time to take a snapshot of its box office performance to determine if it was a commercial success. Despite frequently being panned by critics, the Transformers franchise has been a lucrative cash cow for the last decade. Two of the previous installments, Dark of the Moon and Age of Extinction, even hit the sacred $1 billion mark worldwide, proving to Paramount there was an appetite for robots in disguise on the big screen. Looking at the series' track record, it's easy to see why the studio was so keen on developing an expanded cinematic universe for Transformers - copying the Star Wars formula of alternating between mainline entries and spinoffs.

Before Transformers 5 reached theaters, Paramount had already set aside release dates for projects like Bumblebee, putting some added pressure on The Last Knight to replicate the figures posted by its predecessors. At the time, another round of "Bayhem" may have seemed like a sure thing, but when the numbers started rolling in, an argument can be made they weren't exactly what executives were looking for. In a summer that's been more noteworthy for its disappointments than hits, once sure-thing Optimus Prime was taking a bit of a hit. As many fans know, international grosses can be a saving grace, but all things considered, is The Last Knight a box office smash?

A Domestic Bomb

The warning signs were there long before The Last Knight premiered, but in the United States, audiences seem to have grown tired of what Michael Bay has in store. Back in 2014, Age of Extinction earned the lowest amount domestically with $245.4 million total - over $100 million less than the haul for Dark of the Moon. That downward trajectory continued with Transformers 5, which debuted below expectations with a $44.6 million opening weekend. As of this writing, it's made just $119.7 million for its entire Stateside run. In comparison, Spider-Man: Homecoming brought in $117 million in its first three days in theaters.

For a stretch of time, the Transformers property was critic proof, drawing in sizable crowds amidst the terrible reviews. Revenge of the Fallen was one of the biggest films of 2009, raking in $402.1 million just in the U.S. However, the times have changed and most moviegoers opted to sit the latest sequel out. The biggest factor for The Last Knight's underwhelming box office is the critical response, as many pundits wrote it off as more of the same with little to recommend. With ticket prices increasing, audiences have started to become more selective about what they make the trek out to see. For some, there was little value in handing over hard-earned money to see a tentpole that isn't worth it - especially when the acclaimed Wonder Woman was still relatively young in its run, generating positive word-of-mouth. Also, July has several high-profile offerings like Spider-ManWar for the Planet of the Apes, and Dunkirk, which all have strong buzz.

A combination of poor reviews and great competition is what did The Last Knight in domestically, and the film will certainly be the lowest-grossing entry in the Transformers franchise to date. Since it does not have any legs commercially (back-to-back 62 percent drops), it's worth wondering if Last Knight will even crack $200 million in the States - a question many would have deemed unfathomable a few months ago. Homecoming is now the movie of the moment and Apes is on the horizon - offering casual audiences compelling and entertaining genre fare as the summer season chugs along. Transformers 5 has only been playing for a three weeks, yet has become an afterthought. The good news for Paramount is that the franchise typically does much better overseas, so all hope may not be lost just yet.

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Megatron looks off into the distance menacingly in Transformers: The Last Knight.

International Markets to the Rescue?

As a general rule of thumb, a film needs to gross double its production budget in order to recoup all its costs (including marketing). The Last Knight was made for $217 million, meaning the benchmark is set at $434 million, and anything beyond that is profit. Currently, Transformers 5 has grossed $496.5 million globally, theoretically putting the project $62.5 million in the black. On one hand, that's good news for Paramount since they aren't losing money on this endeavor. That being said, The Last Knight is not going to reach the heights of the previous movies, so whatever profit it ultimately turns will be a shell of the former glory. For instance, Age of Extinction boasted a budget of $210 million and grossed $1.1 billion worldwide. That performance was good enough for a profit of $680 million - enough to bankroll the production of three more Transformers movies. The Last Knight isn't going to get anywhere near that ballpark.

Transformers 5 has already debuted in most countries, with premieres in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Israel, Spain, and Japan still to come. That gives the film seven more markets to hit, but none of those are considered a hotbed for the film industry. Every little bit helps, or course, but it's unlikely the combined audiences of these aforementioned nations move the needle in a positive direction. During Age of Extinction's run, they collectively brought in approximately $111.9 million. When added to Last Knight's current global total, that would edge the gross up to $608.4 million, which is still a far cry from the last installments (and, odds are, the figures won't be identical for Last Knight). China, which was responsible for $320 million of the fourth film's haul, may not be the saving grace it once was. The Last Knight took a massive 82 percent Friday-to-Friday drop, with estimates suggesting it will bring in $240 million from Chinese theaters when it's all said and done.

So, at first glance, this means technically The Last Knight was successful. Digging below the surface, however, some cracks are starting to show. Whether one looks only at domestic numbers or the worldwide figures, Transformers 5 is going to represent a new low. At this point, Last Knight can only hope to best the $709.7 million global haul the original movie posted 10 years ago. If it can't reach that, it would be a stunning development because Transformers 5 had the added benefit of a decade of inflation, plus IMAX 3D premiums. Paramount, which has big things planned for the franchise, cannot be pleased with the way things turned out. They were probably hoping for something a little more as they ushered in a new era. Instead, they're in a position where they have to figure things out to keep the property viable.

Conclusion

The silver lining for Paramount is that The Last Knight was not a box office catastrophe - like King Arthur: Legend of the SwordTransformers still has a large enough following that this isn't a death blow for a usually-reliable blockbuster series. Moving forward, the biggest priority will be improving the quality of the films themselves, since this summer has shown audiences will flock to a tentpole that's well-received. For those tired of Bay's trademark style, Bumblebee could be a nice change-of-pace, as it marks the first time a Transformers film is helmed by a different director. Mixing things up and allowing new blood to play in the sandbox might reinvigorate the brand, giving it the shot in the arm it needs.

Regardless of how Bumblebee turns out, however, Paramount would be wise to pump on the brakes and take things slowly before green lighting a bevy of Transformers films. A smart strategy could be to take things one movie at a time and evaluate what they have once Bumblebee opens next summer. The first Transformers spinoff comes out during a murderer's row stretch that includes Han Solo, Deadpool 2, The Incredibles 2, and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, so it will have its work cut out for it to make an impression at the box office. If viewers are beginning to lose interest in the main storyline, it's no guarantee an off-shoot will drum up excitement. Transformers is successful, just not as much as it used to be - which puts the studio in a fascinating position.

MORE: What Critics Are Missing About Transformers 5

Source: Box Office Mojo

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