This Is Us Theory: Kate Dies Next Episode

This Is Us season 3 is down to its final few episodes, but not everyone from the Pearson family might live past the current year with Kate (Chrissy Metz) possibly dying after the recent events in the show. It's been quite a while since the mystery of Jack's (Milo Ventimiglia) death has been resolved and not everyone has yet to finally get over his tragic demise. But given where This is Us is heading story-wise, the Big Three's number 2's life may be in peril after this week's episode.

Following another short hiatus, This Is Us returned this week with the show's focus shifting back to the core Pearson family (after a Beth-centric episode). Back in time, we see the Big Three graduating with Rebecca (Mandy Moore) struggling coming to terms that from there on, Jack will no longer be around to share these precious moments with her. Kate skipped her graduation ceremony because she's upset that Kevin was moving to New York with Sophie. Decades later, Tobey (Chris Sullivan) found out about this and arranged his wife's own graduation program, but sensing that something is wrong with Kevin (Justin Hartley), Kate confronted her twin about his alcohol dependency relapse and convinced him to go to AA. En route to therapy, her water broke at 28 weeks but they had to wait for an ambulance to come pick them up seeing that Kevin wasn't suitable to drive.

Kate was rushed to the hospital where she was given medicines to slow things down. Nothing's set in stone just yet with how her current situation will be handled, but she told her brothers (including Randall who flew back in to be with her) that "this baby can’t die" - of course, they reassure her that he won't. But considering the delicate state of her pregnancy, what if push comes to shove and This is Us has to choose between Kate and the baby?

Kate and Toby talk on a bridge in This Is Us

This Is Us has spent a lot of time developing this pregnancy arc for Kate and Toby. After suffering a miscarriage, the couple was discouraged for quite some time to continue trying to have a baby. When they lost their first child, Kate shut herself off, even to her husband, and it took a bit of time to cajole her back out. It was only with Rebecca, who shared a similar experience when she lost their third biological sibling, that she started to open up.

Considering what's been done before, it's redundant for This Is Us to have Kate suffer another miscarriage. So what if this time Toby, as Kate's husband and the child's father, is asked to choose between his wife and son? Knowing Kate would've wanted the baby to live, he chooses him over his mother. This would explain the flash-forward scene where Toby is no longer wearing his wedding ring lying on a bed with Kate’s side perfectly made. That future sequence also hinted that Rebecca (“her”) may not be in the best terms with, possibly because she let her daughter die.

On the flip side of this scenario is Toby choosing Kate over their baby, resulting in her hating him for letting their son die. Their eventual separation and loss would take a negative toll on Kate, setting up the possibility that something tragic happens to her in the future. Assuming this is how things pan out on This is Us, it also gives Rebecca a reason to despise Toby.

Regardless of what's happening with Kate and the baby, this entire subplot seems like it will set in motion some of the future This Is Us narratives. Next week's episode, titled "The Waiting Room", will continue this particular arc giving fans the impression that whatever happens will have an impact on the future of This is Us. And knowing that the future for the Damons doesn't look promising based on the flash-forward that was shown thus far, fans might need to keep their tissues ready in case the series pulls another major death in the Pearson family.