Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The Bosss opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of April 15 – 17, 2016.

This weekend, The Jungle Book opens in 4,028 theaters, Barbershop: The Next Cut debuts in 2,661 locations, and Criminal plays in 2,600 theaters. In limited release, Green Room plays on an unspecified number of screens and Sing Street plays in 5 locations.

#1 – The Jungle Book

Coming in first easily should be The Jungle Book, the latest live-action adaptation of one of Disney’s animated classics. Ever since the film impressed during the D23 event last year, moviegoers have been looking forward to what director Jon Favreau has in store, and it appears the anticipation was well worth it. The film’s early reviews have been universally positive, with many critics saying that it improves upon its predecessor and sets a new standard for cinematic CGI. Based on the previews, it certainly looks like a movie that demands to be seen on a large screen, and the word-of-mouth will certainly help it find a wide audience. In addition, the PG rating makes it a great choice for families.

Disney has had commercial success in the past translating their animation library to live-action, most noticeably with hits like Cinderella ($201.1 million) and Maleficent ($241.4 million) under their belt. With all Jungle Book has going for it, it should be more of the same, especially since it faces minimal competition as it enters theaters. Already off to a great start internationally, Jungle Book should ride the positive buzz to the top spot domestically. It is projected to bring in $81 million during its first three days.

neel sethi mowgli Box Office Prediction: The Jungle Book vs. The Boss

#2 – Barbershop: The Next Cut

Our choice for second is Barbershop: The Next Cut, the third installment in the popular comedy series. The previous two installments have performed very well at the box office. In 2002, Barbershop grossed $20.6 million in its opening weekend, and the sequel improved upon that with $24.2 million. While they were never massive blockbuster hits, the Barbershop franchise has always posted respectable numbers thanks to the presence of a strong ensemble cast and positive word-of-mouth. This threequel seems to deliver the goods, as the initial reviews have praised it for being a funny and thought-provoking piece of entertainment.

Though Barbershop 3 has its hands full with The Jungle Book, odds are it will be able to have a strong weekend for itself. Star Ice Cube has established himself as a movie star, with roles in hit comedies like the Jump Street series and Ride Along, and the trailers have made sure to highlight all the familiar faces and A-listers, including Anthony Anderson, Cedric the Entertainer, Common, and Nicki Minaj. Tracking indicates that it should make around $19 million in its opening weekend, which is lower than its predecessors, but still solid for a belated sequel.

#3 – The Boss

Look for last week’s champ, The Boss (read our review), to come in third during its second weekend. It was able to ride Melissa McCarthy’s star power to the #1 spot last week, but its luck is most likely going to run out here. The film had a relatively soft opening of $23.5 million and has actually made less than Tammy at the same point in its run. Demand for the comedy largely isn’t there, and with a pair of well-received movies opening, a majority of moviegoers will opt for something else.

the boss movie 2016 reviews mccarthy Box Office Prediction: The Jungle Book vs. The Boss

#4 – Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice

Coming in fourth should be Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice (read our review), which came in second last week with $23.3 million. After a record-breaking opening, Zack Snyder’s superhero epic has seen a considerable decline in the following weeks, having difficulty maintaing strong legs at the box office. Though it still features the DC Trinity, Batman V Superman is no longer the only blockbuster in town, with Jungle Book earning rave reviews. Those craving a genre picture will most likely go that route, meaning Dawn of Justice should take another hit.

#5 – Zootopia

Rounding out the top five should be Zootopia (read our review). Disney’s animated hit has been one of the year’s best performers at the box office, but things are really going to slow down now. The Mouse House has been pushing Jungle Book recently, and that has the widespread family appeal Zootopia had a monopoly on for the past month.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. Batman V Superman
  2. The Boss
  3. Zootopia
  4. Hardcore Henry
  5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2

Actuals:

  1. The Boss
  2. Batman V Superman
  3. Zootopia
  4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
  5. Hardcore Henry

Next Week: The Huntsman: Winter’s War, The Jungle Book, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office Opening Weekend Projections)

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