The July release dates for Tenet and Mulan are looking doubtful in light of L.A. County's plans to extend its lockdown. The latter was one of many films that was originally scheduled to open this year between mid-March and mid-July, prior to being delayed by the coronavirus pandemic. Christopher Nolan's Tenet, on the other hand, is the rare summer 2020 movie that hasn't shifted from its previous release date on July 17. Even now, theater chains are hoping to reopen for business in time for Tenet to become the first new film to welcome audiences back to the multiplex.
Unfortunately, some eight weeks out, the current release dates for Tenet and Mulan (which was rescheduled for July 24 back in April) are looking more and more unrealistic. Even if theaters in relatively smaller regions of the U.S. are able to meet the mandatory health and safety standards to reopen their doors again by early July, the same might not hold true for bigger (re: more lucrative) markets. Financially, it wouldn't make much sense for Warner Bros. and Disney to release $200 million tentpoles like Tenet and Mulan unless they're able to play in places like Los Angeles, in addition to less densely-populated cities. And as of today, it seems L.A.'s going to remain on shut-down for the next three months.
During this week's Board of Supervisors meeting (per the L.A. Times), L.A. County's Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said the area's stay-at-home orders will "with all certainty" be extended on through to the end of July, pending a “dramatic change to the virus and tools at hand.” If so, the odds are good Tenet and Mulan will be delayed, rather than trying to kick-off a run at the box office that doesn't include L.A. County during their vital opening weeks.
[UPDATE: Ferrer has clarified her previous comments after they caused (as she put it) "great concern by the public," saying restrictions will be gradually eased over the next three months. She went on to add (via THR) "I am eager to reopen L.A. County as soon as it's safe to do so, in collaboration with our health experts, community leaders, businesses and residents, with best practices in place to ensure our overall health and well-being." The rest of this article has been left as it was originally published.]
Just to be clear: Tenet and Mulan haven't been officially postponed yet, but announcements may very well be coming in the near future. It was already known WB needed to make a final decision about Tenet's release date soon, in order to ensure they have enough time to promote the movie beforehand. Some industry folk are further speculating the studio could swap out Wonder Woman 1984 on August 14 for Nolan's film and delay the Wonder Woman sequel, in order to keep Tenet as a summer tentpole. If so, they may decide to push their newest DCEU adventure back to December and give it Dune's current spot on December 18 while shifting the latter to 2021. December was the same month where Aquaman became a billion-dollar hit in 2018, so all in all this sounds like a plausible - and reasonable - way to go.
Things could be trickier for Mulan, though. It may be difficult for Disney to delay the film a second time due to its merchandising commitment. Then again, there's been speculation Disney will move The One and Only Ivan off its August 14 release date and send it directly to Disney+, freeing that spot up for Mulan. But if Warner Bros. decides to keep one of its event movies on that day, the Mouse House will presumably want to move Mulan elsewhere, rather than going head-to-head with either Tenet or Wonder Woman 1984 in its opening weekend. Either way, it's more likely than not release date changes are on the way for both Tenet and Mulan now.
Source: LA Times, THR
