Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from X-Men: Apocalypse‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 3 – 5.

This weekend, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows opens in 4,000 theaters, Me Before You plays in more than 2,500 locations, and Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping debuts in 2,300 theaters.

#1 – Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

Lining up with previous reports, we believe that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows will finish in the top spot during its opening weekend. The film is a sequel to the 2014 film, which surprised many with a strong performance. The first TMNT live-action movie grossed $65.5 million in its first three days en route to a $191.2 million domestic total. It managed that despite mostly negative reviews, indicating that the appeal and nostalgia for the brand remains high. Those who grew up with the property during its first wave of popularity now have families of their own, which gives a TMNT project a cross-generational angle that’s coveted in the current marketplace.

As such, this sequel should be able to win the weekend, though it does have some obstacles it needs to overcome. The early response, while a little better than the first installment, still isn’t great, and Out of the Shadows is one of several movies currently playing targeting the same demographic. Those who aren’t already fans of the heroes in a half shell may skip this latest work and see something else, which will damage TMNT‘s commercial prospects. Tracking indicates an opening weekend of around $27 million (other reports say about $30 – 35 million), which is significantly lower than its predecessor.

teenage mutant ninja turtles 2 out shadows preview Box Office Prediction: TMNT 2 vs. X Men: Apocalypse


#2 – X-Men: Apocalypse

Look for last week’s champ, X-Men: Apocalypse (read our review), to fall to second in its second weekend. The most recent X-Men film had a decent showing over the Memorial Day frame, bringing in $79.8 million for the four day weekend. While that’s certainly nothing to sneeze at, it’s a substantial drop from how Days of Future Past opened back in 2014. Superhero movies are the top dog at the box office, but the X-Men films arguably aren’t as commercially viable as other titles (and need the word-of-mouth to be there). With the mixed responses to Apocalypse, there may not be much demand for it, especially with Captain America: Civil War still relatively fresh.

#3 – Me Before You

Coming in third should be the new romantic drama Me Before You, based on the novel by Jo Jo Moyes. The film stars Emilia Clarke and Sam Claflin, who are recognizable faces thanks to their work in projects like Game of Thrones and The Hunger Games. However, neither is a proven box office commodity on their own, meaning there are some questions about whether or not they can carry a movie. Me Before You should prove to be solid counter-programming for those looking for a reprieve from the major summer tentpoles, but it’s unlikely to be a massive crossover success. It’s entering a marketplace loaded with high-profile films, and the early reviews have been generally mixed. Still, it should find a decent audience and serve an overlooked segment of viewers. Projections have it pegged for $18.5 million.

me before you trailer poster emlia clarke sam claflin Box Office Prediction: TMNT 2 vs. X Men: Apocalypse


#4 – The Angry Birds Movie

Our pick for fourth is The Angry Birds Movie (read our review), which came in third last week with $24.5 million. The animated film is one of the few options currently available for families and youngsters (with the PG rating), so it should continue to attract crowds. It’s also holding fairly well, seeing just a 35.6 percent decrease in its second weekend.

#5 – Alice Through the Looking Glass

Rounding out the top five should be Alice Through the Looking Glass (read our review). The sequel to the $1 billion hit Alice in Wonderland got off to a very rough start last week, posting just $33.5 million in its opening weekend. The fantasy film obviously has not been able to generate much interest, and with demand this low, it’s going to take a major hit in business during its second weekend. If the reviews were better, it’d have a greater chance at gaining strong legs, but the word-of-mouth killed it on arrival.

Note

We do not believe Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping will be able to crack the top five in its opening weekend. Though the music spoof is scoring positive reviews thus far, the odds are stacked against it. Star Andy Samberg has struggled to make a name for himself on the big screen, and films designed in the SNL mold (Popstar is from the minds of the Lonely Island, who delivered several hilarious moments during Samberg’s time on the show) rarely break out. Even with the popularity of the Lonely Island, it faces an uphill climb against all the other movies that are playing. Tracking is at $5.5 million for the weekend.

Last Week’s Recap

Our picks:

  1. X-Men: Apocalypse
  2. Alice Through the Looking Glass
  3. The Angry Birds Movie
  4. Captain America: Civil War
  5. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Actuals:

  1. X-Men: Apocalypse
  2. Alice Through the Looking Glass
  3. The Angry Birds Movie
  4. Captain America: Civil War
  5. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Next Week: Warcraft, The Conjuring 2Now You See Me 2, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office Opening Weekend Projections)