Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Ben-Hur‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of August 26 – 28, 2016.

This weekend, Don’t Breathe opens in 2,900 theaters, Mechanic: Resurrection debuts in 2,200 locations, Hands of Stone plays in 810 theaters, and Southside With You plays in 801 locations.

#1 – Don’t Breathe

Our choice for the top spot is Don’t Breathe, the new horror film from director Fede Alvarez, who made a name for himself in 2013 by directing the Evil Dead reboot. That film brought in an impressive $54.2 million domestically, $25.7 of which came during its opening weekend. Marketing for Don’t Breathe has made sure to mention this connection, which gives it a solid selling point for casual audiences and fans of the genre. Evil Dead was generally well-received upon its release, so this will hopefully benefit Don’t Breathe.

What will definitely give the movie a boost commercially are the early reviews, which are positive across the board. Many pundits are in agreement that it is a tense and scary home invasion thriller that ultimately proves to be effective. Additionally, the film is generating substantial buzz on social media, meaning that it has captured the attention of viewers. The end of August has typically been a good place for a horror film to open, and Don’t Breathe should post strong numbers over its first three days. Projections are set at $20 million.

Daniel Zovatto and Stephen Lang in Dont Breathe Box Office Prediction: Dont Breathe vs. Suicide Squad


#2 – Suicide Squad

Look for the three-time champ Suicide Squad (read our review) to fall to second in its fourth weekend. The latest from the DC Extended Universe has taken advantage of a weak crop of competitors to stay on top, but its time in the number one slot is coming to an end. Last week, it grossed $20.8 million, meaning that most of its damage has already been done. Still, this is hardly a loss for Warner Bros., as the film has made $267.2 million domestically to date.

#3 – War Dogs

Coming in third should be War Dogs (read our review), which finished in this spot last weekend with $14.6 million. Though it hasn’t found as much success as director Todd Phillips’ Hangover films, it’s still been able to appeal to comedy fans by giving them something to check out. War Dogs also sports solid word-of-mouth and has been sold as an entertaining time at the movies. It’s unlikely it becomes a bona fide blockbuster, but the film should be able to have another healthy weekend.

war dogs trailer poster Box Office Prediction: Dont Breathe vs. Suicide Squad


#4 – Kubo and the Two Strings

Our pick for fourth is Kubo and the Two Strings (read our review). Though it’s one of the best reviewed movies of the summer, the latest from Laika only made $12.6 million in its opening weekend. The hope is that the strong response from those who have seen it will encourage others to make the trip and support it. While interest in it is somewhat low, Kubo should still hang around the top five for one more week at least.

#5 – Ben-Hur

Rounding out the top five should be Sausage Party (read our review). The R-rated animated film has been very successful so far in its run, making $71 million domestically. It’s managed to find an audience and should continue to draw in crowds.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Predictions:

  1. Suicide Squad
  2. War Dogs
  3. Sausage Party
  4. Kubo and the Two Strings
  5. Ben-Hur

Actuals:

  1. Suicide Squad
  2. Sausage Party
  3. War Dogs
  4. Kubo and the Two Strings
  5. Pete’s Dragon

Next Week: The Light Between Oceans, Morgan, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office Opening Weekend Projections)