Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is a box office disappointment, even though it made $1 billion worldwide. Since Disney's great Star Wars revival kicked off with The Force Awakens in 2015, the Mouse House has mainly enjoyed the fruits of their $4 billion purchase. With The Rise of Skywalker becoming the latest member of the $1 billion club, four of the five modern Star Wars movies have earned that much globally. The lone outlier is Solo: A Star Wars Story, which was the franchise's first proper commercial bomb (grossing $392.9 million worldwide). Even with that, Disney recouped the money it cost to buy Lucasfilm long ago, meaning this was (unsurprisingly) a worthwhile investment.
This past December, Lucasfilm closed out the sequel trilogy and the Skywalker saga with The Rise of Skywalker, which currently ranks as the lowest-rated Star Wars movie on Rotten Tomatoes. It's no secret reactions to the film were mixed, which appears to have had some impact on its commercial performance. Normally, a property as well-known and popular as Star Wars would be critic-proof, but audiences weren't as enthused for The Rise of Skywalker as they were for past installments. $1 billion looks nice, but the film's box office haul is a tad underwhelming.
It is important to point out that statistically speaking, The Rise of Skywalker turned a profit (grossing $1 billion against a $275 million production budget). Nobody is saying it's an outright bomb like Solo. But given the circumstances, this isn't a great turnout.
The Rise of Skywalker's Box Office Expectations
Before getting into the nitty gritty of The Rise of Skywalker's actual numbers, it's a good idea to set the stage for what was expected in the months leading up to its premiere. Historically, the third installment of a Star Wars trilogy outgrosses the second; Return of the Jedi made $252.5 million domestically to The Empire Strikes Back's $209.3 million and Revenge of the Sith earned $380 million domestically to Attack of the Clones' $302.1 million. With that in mind, the baseline for The Rise of Skywalker going in was The Last Jedi's $620.1 million domestic total. The Force Awakens' all-time record of $936.6 million was always unattainable and will likely stand for a long time. The Rise of Skywalker could have been the most critically-acclaimed Star Wars movie ever and still wouldn't have come close to that number.
In October 2019, shortly after the release of The Rise of Skywalker's final trailer, early box office projections had the film opening in the range of $185-225 million domestically. The high end of those estimates surpassed The Last Jedi's $220 million debut. Granted, based on these predictions, The Rise of Skywalker had a greater chance of earning less than The Last Jedi, but the general feeling was this was merely a conservative forecast that would change once the film's release was closer. In 2019, a number of high-profile tentpoles exceeded expectations (including, somehow, Avengers: Endgame), so the thought was the latest Star Wars film - billed as a massive cinematic event for the holiday season - would do the same. Sadly, that didn't happen.
Why The Rise of Skywalker's Box Office Disappointed
The Rise of Skywalker earned $177.3 million domestically in its opening weekend, by far the worst start in the sequel trilogy (and only slightly higher than Rogue One's $155 million debut). While Rise of Skywalker held on to the #1 position for three consecutive weekends, its success was far more modest than previous installments. This was essentially Avengers: Endgame for Star Wars, and it couldn't even get within shouting distance of Marvel's epic. Of course, Endgame isn't a fair standard to hold other movies to, but Rise of Skywalker is the closest equivalent (it was billed as the culmination of a long-running pop culture narrative that captivated audiences) and fell well short. The Rise of Skywalker's opening weekend was less than half of Endgame's, illustrating how Disney's two premier franchises have traded places over the years. Endgame's domestic haul of $858.3 million blows The Rise of Skywalker out of the water.
Setting aside comparisons to Endgame (which was a bigger hit than even the rosiest optimists anticipated), The Rise of Skywalker is still something of a letdown. Its current domestic total stands at $494.2 million and business is starting to decline, meaning it won't match or beat The Last Jedi's U.S. or global total ($1.3 billion). Even more shocking is the fact Rise of Skywalker finished below The Lion King ($191.7 million), which few would have expected. Four years ago, Star Wars became the biggest movie of all-time again, and now it's trailing a Disney remake. As beloved as The Lion King is, it shouldn't have been any match for the last episode of the Skywalker saga, which frankly didn't have much competition over the holiday frame (with the exception of Jumanji: The Next Level). Cats was a massive failure and other films opening over Christmas (like Little Women) were smaller titles targeting more niche demographics. Despite that, The Rise of Skywalker couldn't even hit $200 million domestically in its opening weekend.
Where Star Wars Goes From Here
Lucasfilm only has to look at Warner Bros. to see an underwhelming film isn't a death knell for a franchise. The DCEU rebounded after the Justice League catastrophe with hits like Aquaman and Shazam, refocusing their efforts on crafting well-made standalone films rather than prioritizing shared universe building. DC now has a very exciting slate of upcoming movies, including Birds of Prey and Wonder Woman 1984 this year, and The Batman and The Suicide Squad in 2021. The failure of Justice League still stings, but it's fading further and further from memory as time goes on. The key for Lucasfilm will be ironing out the next direction for Star Wars and formulating a concrete plan to follow. There are rumors the next wave of films will be set in the Old Republic or High Republic era, and the studio's enlisting Marvel stalwarts Kevin Feige and Taika Waititi to develop more movies. It'll be interesting to see how things shape up, but there's a lot of potential here if they play their cards right.
Disney's self-imposed Star Wars movie hiatus couldn't have been better timed. The next film hits theaters in December 2022, a full three years after The Rise of Skywalker. Mouse House CEO Bob Iger will be the first person to admit the studio rushed out new Star Wars content, and the rapid pace at which the modern movies came out might have expedited a sense of franchise fatigue settling in. Some time away from the big screen will probably do Star Wars some good, as Lucasfilm leans on the various Disney+ shows to satisfy fans' cravings for new Star Wars. A break for the films will give people a chance to miss seeing the galaxy far, far away on the big screen, and hopefully by the time 2022 rolls around, the excitement will be there and the movie feels like a proper event. The Rise of Skywalker was far more successful than the aforementioned Justice League, but still ended this era of Star Wars on a whimper and lacked that event feeling. But Star Wars is so popular, it's hard to see it staying down for a prolonged period of time.