Analyst Predicts ‘Star Wars: Episode 7′ Will Make $1.2 Billion at the Global Box Office

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star wars episode 7 release date Analyst Predicts Star Wars: Episode 7 Will Make $1.2 Billion at the Global Box Office

Following an extremely poor opening for The Lone Ranger, many moviegoers expected Disney would be licking its wounds this week – as the $200+ million film only brought-in $29 million over its debut weekend. An unenthusiastic response from critics (read our Lone Ranger review), lukewarm audience word-of-mouth, and a strong debut from Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me 2, will make it hard for Gore Verbinski’s retelling of the masked western hero to earn back its $200+ million budget – even with an A-lister like Johnny Depp headlining the credits.

As a result, industry analysts have claimed the film could lead to anywhere between a $100 million to $190 million writedown for Disney – just shy of their $200 million write-off for John Carter in 2011. Yet, Disney stocks actually rose 1.2% over the last 24 hours because, in spite of an especially disappointing performance for The Lone Ranger, the mouse house still has plenty of bankable properties in the pipeline – most notably Star Wars and Marvel Studios films.

In fact, according to an article over at Variety, Credit Suisse Group analyst Michael Senno is already going on record to say that Disney will make “around $733 million in profits” from Star Wars: Episode 7. According to Senno, that $733 million in profit will be a combination of “consumer products and other revenue” along with roughly “$1.2 billion in global theatrical receipts.” To put that in perspective, months before J.J. Abrams is scheduled to start shooting Star Wars: Episode 7 and two full years ahead of its summer 2015 release date, Senno is claiming the film will generate the same box office haul as Iron Man 3 – the fifth highest grossing film of all time (unadjusted for inflation). Yet, $1.2 billion is not an enormous stretch – since Star Wars: Episode 1 managed to secure just under $1 billion global ticket sales (unadjusted for inflation) back in 1999.

Obi Wan Darth Maul Star Wars Episode 1 Analyst Predicts Star Wars: Episode 7 Will Make $1.2 Billion at the Global Box Office

Senno asserts that, despite poor returns for The Lone Ranger: “The ‘Star Wars’ franchise should drive strong profit growth and mitigate risk at the studio with fewer risky high budget films.” If Senno is right, instead of attempting to develop their own blockbuster franchises (i.e. The Lone Ranger and John Carter), expect Disney to rely on cash-driving acquisitions like Pixar Animation, Lucasfilm, and Marvel Studios to keep profits (and stock prices) up.

It’s not a bad strategy either, as regular Screen Rant readers are well-aware, Marvel Studios films have been consistently strong performers – most recently with The Avengers ($1.5 billion) and, as stated, Iron Man 3 ($1.2 billion). Even modest performers, Captain America: The First Avenger and Thor both scored $368 million and $449 million respectively at the global box office – far exceeding their individual budgets. Of course, none of those totals include the high-profile merchandising opportunities (i.e. consumer products and other revenue) that, without question, added plenty of additional money to each film’s overall profits.

Not to mention, now that The Avengers has given audiences the impression that each Marvel Studios film is a must-see entry in the lead-up to The Avengers 2, it’s likely that both Thor: The Dark World and Captain America: The Winter Soldier will enjoy major box office bumps (compared to their “origin” entries) – ahead of another extremely profitable Avengers team-up in 2015.

Marvels The Avengers Review starring Robert Downey Jr. Scarlett Johansson and Smauel L. Jackson Analyst Predicts Star Wars: Episode 7 Will Make $1.2 Billion at the Global Box Office

Still, not every Marvel movie is a guaranteed ticket selling smash: Edgar Wright’s Ant-Man could end up being a major gamble for Disney in November 2015. Plus, as the first entirely new Marvel Phase 2 entry, Guardians of the Galaxy might also be the lowest performing (or not). Regardless, it’s still unlikely that either film will cause Lone Ranger-sized losses for Disney – given the strength of the Marvel brand among high-value demographics: especially kids and casual moviegoers. Keep in mind, while many die-hard comic fans were split on the overall quality of Iron Man 3 (thanks to some controversial choices by director Shane Black), the film was well-received among most audiences and exceeded box office expectations.

For that reason, while die-hard fans of Marvel and Star Wars have cause to keep vigilant movie to movie, analysts appear confident that Disney has put together a strong enough stable of highly-profitable film (and merchandise) IP’s to weather a few expensive box office bombs.

___

Star Wars: Episode 7 is set for release in 2015.

Iron Man 3 is currently in theaters, Thor: The Dark World arrives on November 8th, 2013, Captain America: The Winter Soldier on April 4th, 2014, Guardians of the Galaxy on August 1st, 2014, The Avengers 2 on May 1st, 2015, and Ant-Man on November 6th, 2015.

Follow me on Twitter @benkendrick for future updates on Star Wars and Marvel Studios as well as future movie, TV, and gaming news.

Source: Variety

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TAGS: star wars, the avengers 2

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  1. I know Disney own rights to both Marvel and Star Wars films. And I get this article is about the projected profit SW will make come 2015. But I hate that since Star Wars is now owned by Disney, they will be put in the same category and conversations as The Avengers and such. I don’t know if anyone will understand what I’m trying to say, but keep conversations about Marvel and SW separate, because SW is so much more than Marvel.

    • No.

    • Just simply..NO!!More like MARVEL has done way more then SW has by reinvigorating audiences to a genre that has been dormant as a opposed to SW with it’s lack luster prequel Trilogy that did little to nothing to excite fans outside of the fanatical SW fan base.

      • im sorry sir no it hasn’t its done a lot of good for the film industry and such but star wars the original trilogy became iconic in cinema but i respect your opnion

  2. Just keep in mind J.J. Abrams last movie has only made 444 million worldwide so far.

    • Just keep in mind that Star Trek, although it has a large fanbase, isn’t as huge as Star Wars.

  3. Totally two different franchises for sure, i like to see this analyst make this prediction with an unknown film. With the name already established and harrison ford in it with mark hamill and carrie fisher. Prediction really not a stretch.

  4. Its very possible, but very impossible to tell. Nobody predicted star trek into darkness would as little as it did compared to the first. There is also the possibility of it not being good

    • Wrong, trey. I did.

  5. And another thing if marvel wants guardians of the galaxy to succeed they better
    do something with thor 2 that starts a buildup to it and then continue in captain
    america 2, as it stands only those of us who read comic book know the guardians
    Are. Marvel studios needs to step up to the plate and deliver some awesome post
    credits scenes and not go backwards.

    • What do post credit scenes have to do with anything?

      • Post credit scenes in iron man and subsequent movies led to buildup for avengers. People now sit in a movie theater waiting on them as a result.
        You asking that question is very odd considering how obvious answer without me answering it for. Sounds like you must be tired.

        • It’s mainly just the fans who stick around for the post credit scenes. kind of a little hint of things to come (or more recently, just a fun little extra scene)
          What really builds up the movies is the marketing: Posters, trailers, clips, etc. – and Marvel/Disney have proven that they’re more than capable of running a fantastic marketing campaign.

          • IMO the only place where they should really “step up to the plate” is in terms of story. I probably don’t need to say this, but I love these movies to death. The stories are great, but Marvel can bring a little more to the table I think….

            Looking at what’s coming though (specifically Cap2, GOTG and Avengers 2) I’m almost certain that’s exactly what they’re doing.

          • Avenger, you’re underselling the importance of post-credits scenes. They are definitely important.

        • I think the Marvel brand pretty much speaks for itself by now. They’ve been consistent enough with their output for the past few years that people know what to expect from them, so that gives them some room to take risks like GotG. People may not know who the characters are, but they know what kind of product Marvel makes. Keep in mind that nobody knew who Iron Man was when they released the first IM movie, yet it was pretty successful.

    • Didnt they state Guardians of the Galaxy is a stand alone, as many people are not into Guardians of the Galaxy.

  6. Despicable Me 2 is not a Dreamworks production. It is Illumination Entertainment that is the production company.

    • You’re totally right. I’ve fixed it.

  7. Is there no such thing as too early these days? Box office predictions two years prior is just nonsense. There’s got to be something more interesting to write about than this.

    • Sunday and Monday tend to be Screen Rant’s slow news days. Plus it also depends on if there’s any actual news to report that can be verified with sources rather than posting hearsay and set photos constantly.

  8. Forecasting black holes in abstract geometrical computation is
    highly unpredictable and even with super-Turing capability any
    recursively enumerable set cannot be decided in finite time.

    In other words, take this prediction with a grain of salt.

  9. If the trailer don’t suck they will pass the 1 billion mark for sure.
    If the movie is really good, they can even go to 2 billion without too much trouble

  10. Well, it’s STAR WARS so no $#!* it’ll cross $1 billion.

    • @ The Avenger
      Yeah, I kind of had the same thought.
      Predicting that a Star Wars film will make over a billion is kind of a “no s**t” prediction.
      So let’s save some time and say so will Episodes 8 & 9, The Avengers 2 & 3, The Hobbit 2 & 3 and Avatar 2.

      • And Bond 24

  11. It’s obviously going to gross at least 1 billion worldwide.

  12. No other movie news lately? Someone has to state the more-obvious-than-not but fashion it as a prediction?

  13. Guess the message is buy Disney stock if you can.

  14. Time to buy some disney stocks post haste. 2015 will be epic

  15. If Disney and Abrams make a decent SW movie, it will certainly gross more than 1.2billion WW. The sky’s the limit for a good SW movie. Heck, TPM grossed over a billion WW, and many SW fans consider TPM to be the worst of the six SW movies.

    I think a really good SW movie could break all the records for domestic and WW gross.

  16. The under 18 generation doesn’t really care for Star Wars. Trust me I’m part of it. I highly doubt $1.2 billion in ticket sales.

    • Yes, we know your generation likes shirtless young werewolves and vampires, but those movies will never make as much money or have the longevity of Star Wars and the like.

      • I’m speaking of the male demographic, who don’t care for Star Wars. Its obvious that females nowadays wouldn’t care for Star Wars.

        • Jay, no one elected you the spokesman for your generation. So, you don’t know that none of the people in your demographic like Star Wars. Even if you were right, which you’re not, SW can gross a billion worldwide without a single person 18 y/o or under buying a ticket.

          • True. It will be the older generation – the originals will be about 50/60′s, those who were just at the right age when Phantom Menace came out (my generation – I’m 22 and was obsessed with Obi-Wan & Maul), as well as those who were about 9-13 when the subsequent two came out, which was when I was in high school.

            Seriously, truly, there will be a HUGE demographic coming out in droves. Plus the curiousity for the next generation: They know the previous two generations have had their own Star Wars triples, and as the nostalgic murmurs pick up, they will know that this is going to be theirs and they will be curious to see it.

        • I’m 20, speak for yourself. I’ve watched Star Wars about a thousand times, and never gets old.

    • I’m not into Star Wars all that much either but the majority of my friends, (I’m 19, maybe not under 18 but it’s still close enough i guess) are either crazy about Star Wars or atleast curious about it. So i could definitely see it reaching at least the billion dollar mark, but it’s still too early to even tell.

      • I think enough would be curious about it to push it towards 1.2 billion

  17. Bring back jar jar binks and it’ll make 2 billion

  18. Star Wars, I am quite happy with the first three, two of the last three. Do not need to know what happens, as my Star Wars did not go outside of the movies and a handful of books.

    Behold what Disney has done to franchises or Storied heroes.

    Pirates of the Caribbean, Lone Ranger, John Carter. JJ Abrams is a good director and he has come out and said, HE IS A STAR WARS Fan since he was a kid.

    So, do not be shocked or surprised by Episode 7 being from the perspective of a fan. What they like and loved may not be what you like and loved.

    • @ Jeff

      Your point is well taken and is exactly what makes me a little nervous about Ep. 7. While I do like J.J. Abrams as a director, his vision of what it should look like, may not match mine, or fans in general. This movie will be heavily scrutinized. This could be why they had a hard time find a director in the first place to take the project.

    • Lone Ranger should have never been made for 200 million plus another 100 plus million for marketing. It was a terrible decision.

  19. So they needed industry analysts to tell them that, its Star Wars ofcourse its going to break the billion mark..

  20. The Hobbit crossed 1 billion .. It was a good decent movie . Not as good as the Lord of the Rings trilogy though. So with Abrams at the helm of one of the biggest franchises in the world , spanning 3 generations of movie goers + casual audiences, I expect Ep 7 to at least hit a billion and hopefully exceed expectations. Hopefully

  21. I surmise that most people have no idea who the Guardians are. Still, it’s going to make a profit for Marvel/Disney.

  22. There’s something wrong here. Episode I didn’t make a billion dollars until its re-release last year. Episode I originally made over $900,000,000 worldwide back in 1999.

  23. Do you know what? I am betting against “Star Wars: Episode VII”. After seeing how recent reboots and sequels have flopped, while they carried big star power, I think “Star Wars: Episode VII” will fail domestically. If “Star Wars: Episode VII” does hit $1.2 billion, the movie does so by a large international presence.

    • This theory is legit. The lowest they an get worldwide is $600,000,000 (which is what Episode II made).

  24. Star wars will do just fine too many fans. If its as good as the hype it will make way more than 1 billion

  25. Are you people serious?
    They young generation isnt into Star Wars?
    Oh, Ok. So tell me how “into” Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Hulk etc they were prior to Marvel making the movies?

    Star Wars permiates our society like very few movies series ever have. Dont beleive it? Utter the phrases “Use the force” or “May the force be with you” or “Luke, I am your father” or any of a hundred more anywhere you go and see how many people dont know what youre talking about. Most will.

    Keep in mind, I am no Star Wars fan boy, I havent liked anything in the series since Empire Strikes Back (Return of the Jedi was… OK.)
    But if you Adjust for inflation (which means not how much it made, but how many people went to see it) Star Wars is the second highest grossing movie ALL TIME! and FOUR of the series grossed more than The Avengers! FOUR!!!
    If JJ makes a good movie, and thats a BIG if, this movie will break every box office record there is. It needs three things: An AWESOME trailer, good feedback from critics, and good word of mouth from movie goers (basically confirming this isnt Phantom Menace all over again.) If all three of those things happen, it will leave all records in its wake. Mark my words.

    • You can’t make those kind of comparisons. If Star Wars opened in a market today it would never preform as well as it did in the 70′s. That whole adjusted box office thing doesn’t work. Audiences have changed.

      • Could you imagine if a movie like the Avengers opened in the 70s. It would have wiped the floor with Star Wars. Yep, you can’t make a comparison like that unless you look at the reverse result.

  26. Im a huge fan of marvel and star wars but I believe that Disney will demolish star wars cuz I’ve heard its probably a musical. Marvel will lose a lot of money because of Disney.

  27. So not as big as Avengers then. I’m not surprised. Marvel is now the frontrunner at the box office. Thor 2 has opened big & Guardians of the Galaxy will be bigger. Marvel
    Own the galaxy now… Not Star Wars.

  28. That’s odd. Because I read an article by another more respected group of analysts that say it will flop big time. I believe them.

    • Interesting, if that’s the case, where’s your citation of this “more respected group of analysts”?

      You obviously know little about Star Wars. Episode I made a ridiculous amount of money and it was terrible. But it was still Star Wars. JJ Abrams has yet to make a bad movie, or a flop.

      Troll somewhere else.

  29. no

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