Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Ghostbusters‘ opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of July 22 – 24.

This weekend, Star Trek Beyond opens in 3,928 theaters, Ice Age: Collision Course debuts in 3,992 locations, and Lights Out plays in 2,818 theaters.

#1 – Star Trek Beyond

Our choice for first place this weekend is Star Trek Beyond (read our review), the latest installment of the rebooted Kelvin Timeline in the Star Trek franchise. The first two were extremely successful commercially, bringing in $257.7 million and $228.7 million, respectively. The property is now more popular than ever, and Beyond seems poised to be one of the few hits of the summer. Not only are the reviews mostly positive, this being Trek‘s 50th anniversary makes Beyond feel like more of an event than its predecessors. Fans are supposed to celebrate a major milestone with this one.

Beyond is expected to do very well, jut not as strong as the earlier Kelvin Timeline films. Whereas Star Trek and Star Trek Into Darkness both made in excess of $70 million in their first three days, Beyond is projected to bring in $61 million during its opening weekend. That’s definitely nothing to sneeze at, it’s just fascinating that the third film is tracking to make less money, despite the strong word-of-mouth. Still, that shouldn’t prevent it from winning the weekend. With Star Trek 4 already announced, there will be much interest in seeing Beyond on the big screen.

Star Trek Beyond Karl Urban Bones Zachary Quinto Spock Box Office Prediction: Star Trek Beyond vs. Ghostbusters

#2 – Ice Age: Collision Course

Coming in second should be Ice Age: Collision Course, the fifth entry in the Ice Age series. The franchise has been one of the more consistently performing brands at the box office since its inception in 2002, peaking with Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs ($196.5 million) in 2009. Though the property took a bit of a it with 2012’s Ice Age: Continental Drift, that film’s $161.3 domestic haul illustrates that there’s still a demand for more adventures with this particular group of characters.

However, Ice Age 5 is arriving at a time when the family demographic has more than been accounted for, thanks to the blockbuster hits Finding Dory and The Secret Life of Pets. With the Collision Course reviews being largely negative, this will likely have some kind of impact on its box office prospects. It’s never wise to bet against animated movies during the summer, but this one has an uphill battle if it is to be commercially viable. The early tracking suggests an opening weekend of $33 million, which would be a new low for the series.

#3 – The Secret Life of Pets

Look for last week’s champ, The Secret Life of Pets (read our review) to fall to third in its third weekend. The latest from Illumination Entertainment has been one of the few success stories of summer 2016, bringing in $231.3 million so far in its domestic run. However, it now faces some high-profile competition. At this point, it’s unlikely it can hang with Star Trek, and the arrival of the new Ice Age should take away some business from Pets. It should still do fine on its own, but its time at the top has come to an end.

secret life pets movie 2016 trailer preview Box Office Prediction: Star Trek Beyond vs. Ghostbusters

#4 – Ghostbusters

Our pick for fourth is Ghostbusters (read our review), which came in second last week with $46 million. Though the reboot received mostly positive reviews, the controversy surrounding it and the backlash proved too much for it to overcome in its first three days. Its debut was modest at best, and puts the film in a deep hole it needs to dig out of. Unfortunately, it has a lot of competition to deal with, especially with Star Trek Beyond being the genre picture of choice now. It should see a bit of a drop-off in its second weekend, and many will be interested in seeing how it holds. Sony remains convinced sequels will happen, but there’s still a long way to go for Ghostbusters to turn a profit.

#5 – Lights Out

Rounding out the top five should be Lights Out (read our review), a new horror film. The movie is produced by James Wan, who is coming off of the nice performance of The Conjuring 2 earlier this summer ($101.5 million). It’s been a while since fans of the genre had something new to check out, which will certainly help Lights Out succeed. At the same time, it’s worth wondering if the project can break out and be a crossover smash, as the marketplace is very crowded now in the middle of summer. Projections indicate that it might not, as it’s only tracking to make $17 million in its opening weekend.

Last Week’s Recap

Our picks:

  1. The Secret Life of Pets
  2. Ghostbusters
  3. The Legend of Tarzan
  4. Finding Dory
  5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

Actuals:

  1. The Secret Life of Pets
  2. Ghostbusters
  3. The Legend of Tarzan
  4. Finding Dory
  5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates

Next Week: Jason Bourne, Bad Moms, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office Opening Weekend Projections)

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