Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Despicable Me 3‘s opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of July 7 – 9, 2017.

This weekend, Spider-Man: Homecoming opens in 4,348 theaters.

#1 – Spider-Man: Homecoming

A lock for the top spot this weekend is Spider-Man: Homecoming (read our review), the latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Though Tom Holland is the third cinematic Peter Parker over the course of the last 15 years, fan excitement about this reboot was much more palpable than the Amazing Spider-Man films. For starters, Holland introduced his take on the character in last year’s highly-successful Captain America: Civil War, increasing interest in seeing the enthusiastic youth lead his own vehicle. Spider-Man was one of the most praised aspects of the Avengers vs. Avengers showdown, and Homecoming takes full advantage of the Marvel/Sony partnership by placing Iron Man in a key supporting role. Tony Stark is the MCU’s poster boy and serves as a clear illustration how this Spider-Man is different from the others.

Marvel Studios has been riding a hot streak for a number of years now, and that shouldn’t change with Homecoming. The word-of-mouth has been very positive, with many critics considering it to be the best Spider-Man film since Sam Raimi’s Spider-Man 2. Additionally, it’s arriving in theaters at just the right time. Ever since Wonder Woman debuted at the beginning of June, the tentpole landscape has seen one disappointment after another, with movies poised to be audience crowd-pleasers burning out before they get started. The colorful and fun Homecoming looks to be exactly what audiences need, so it’s in great shape. Projections indicate around $122 million in its first three days.

Spider Man Homecoming Costume Box Office Prediction: Spider Man: Homecoming vs. Despicable Me 3

#2 – Despicable Me 3

Look for last week’s champ, Despicable Me 3 (read our review), to slide to second in its second weekend. The newest installment in Illumination’s flagship franchise posted $72.4 million in its first three days, which was a solid start, but still below expectations. Since the film is one of the few animated movies currently playing, it should do well with its target audience, though the arrival of Spider-Man may take some business away. Peter Parker is a character with wide appeal for people of all ages, including youngsters. Still, parents who aren’t ready for their kids to see a PG-13 action movie may be inclined to opt for Gru and the Minions, paving the way for another fruitful Despicable weekend.

#3 – Baby Driver

Our choice for third is Baby Driver (read our review), which opened in second last week with $20.5 million. Edgar Wright’s heist film is one of the most acclaimed offerings of the year, winning people over with its innovative action sequences and catchy soundtrack. Some fans are so excited about Baby Driver, they’re already making trips to the theater for repeat viewings. While its R-rating will prevent Baby Driver from posing any realistic challenge to Homecoming, it should have strong legs thanks to its word-of-mouth. For those looking for a break from the usual summer fare, Baby Driver is the perfect counter-programming.

Baby Driver Ansel Elgort 1 Box Office Prediction: Spider Man: Homecoming vs. Despicable Me 3

#4 – Wonder Woman

Our choice for fourth is Wonder Woman (read our review), which came in this spot last year with $15.7 million. With Spider-Man now opening, business for Diana Prince’s first solo vehicle should continue to go down a bit, but the film has held up so well over the course of its run, there’s no reason why it can’t stick around the top of the charts for at least another week.

#5 – Transformers: The Last Knight

Rounding out the top five should be Transformers: The Last Knight (read our review). Michael Bay’s fifth entry in this franchise has been one of the big-budget disappointments so far this year – at least domestically. After 10 years, the series is experiencing some audience fatigue, with $111 million earned in the States so far. Homecoming, which earned much better reviews, will certainly take away attention from The Last Knight, which was already seeing a massive decline in ticket sales.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  • Despicable Me 3
  • Baby Driver
  • Transformers: The Last Knight
  • Wonder Woman
  • Cars 3

Actuals:

  • Despicable Me 3
  • Baby Driver
  • Transformers: The Last Knight
  • Wonder Woman
  • Cars 3

Next Week: Spider-Man: Homecoming, War for the Planet of the Apes, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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