Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend — to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Our Brand is Crisis‘ opening weekend — and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of November 6 – 8.
This weekend, Spectre will play in over 3,600 theaters and The Peanuts Movie debuts in more than 3,800 locations. In limited release, we have Miss You Already playing in 383 theaters and Trumbo and Spotlight both opening on 5 screens.
#1 – Spectre
The easy choice for first place this week is Spectre, the latest installment of the James Bond franchise. In 2012, Skyfall took the series to new heights and became the highest-grossing entry in its five-decade history ($304.3 domestically). With Skyfall director Sam Mendes returning to call the shots on Spectre, anticipation among fans is extremely high, and 007 should be poised for another strong box office performance.
Though early reviews for the film are not as universally enthusiastic as Skyfall, they still paint Spectre as an entertaining time at the movies and a solid James Bond adventure. However, this is an instance where early reviews may not have that much impact. Bond is a franchise with a loyal following, and the box office has been in a lull the past couple of weeks. Another mission for the famous spy is just what the Hollywood marketplace needs, as Spectre is currently projected to make $90 million in its first three days alone. With minimal competition, it has an easy road to the top.
#2 – The Peanuts Movie
Our pick for second is The Peanuts Movie, a feature film based on the popular comic strip by Charles Schultz. Characters like Charlie Brown and Snoopy have become an integral part of the pop culture zeitgeist, so this animated movie should be able to draw in families who are looking for something in the post-Halloween landscape. Previous attempts at Peanuts theatrical films like Bon Voyage Charlie Brown ($2 million) and Race for Your Life, Charlie Brown ($3.2 million) have not led to strong grosses, but things should be very different this time around. The Peanuts Movie has benefited from a visible marketing campaign that plays up to the nostalgia fans have for the brand.
Typically, you don’t underestimate family films (especially ones getting positive early reviews), but most family films don’t open against a major tentpole like a James Bond picture. Projections for The Peanuts Movie have it pegged for a $47 million opening weekend. That would be a strong debut, but it’s hard to see a situation where it tops Spectre for the weekend. You can’t even chalk that up to Charlie Brown’s bad luck. That’s just the nature of the business.
#3 – The Martian
Our choice for third is The Martian (read our review), which topped the charts last week with $11.7 million. That the latest film from Ridley Scott has been able to remain in the number one spot for so many weekends thus far is less an indicator of its widespread appeal (though, it did strike a chord with the mainstream) and more of an illustration of how weak the latest batches of films have been. With the arrival of two high-profile films based on well-known properties this weekend, business for The Martian will suffer a blow and it will begin its descent down the charts.
#4 – Bridge of Spies
Our pick for fourth is Bridge of Spies (read our review), which remained in third place last weekend with $8.3 million. Though the film has not attracted the kind of crowd one normally associates with Steven Spielberg, it’s holding well with adult audiences looking for a nice drama this awards season. It should continue to make a strong play for that demographic and serve as counter-programming for the other films out there.
#5 – Goosebumps
Rounding out the top five should be Goosebumps (read our review), which took advantage of the Halloween holiday last weekend and came in second with $9.8 million. Now that we’ve moved into November and The Peanuts Movie is opening, it’s difficult to see how this can be the go-to option for families at the movies. The popularity of the Goosebumps source material may be strong enough to keep it hanging around for another week, but it’s about to lose a lot of its appeal.
Last Week’s Recap
- The Martian
- Our Brand is Crisis
- Bridge of Spies
- The Martian
- Bridge of Spies
- Hotel Transylvania 2
- The Last Witch Hunter
Next Week: Spectre, By the Sea, and more!