Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The LEGO Movie‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of February 14 – 16, 2014.
This weekend, romantic comedy About Last Night gets a release of over 2,000 theaters, romantic drama Endless Love debuts in 2,900 theaters, sci-fi remake Robocop is released in over 3,000 theaters, and fantasy romance Winter’s Tale sees a release of over 2,750 theaters
#1 – The LEGO Movie
Look for last week’s champ, The LEGO Movie (read our review), to come in first again this weekend. Everything was awesome for WB’s new animated hit, as it grossed over $69 million during its first three days. Thanks to strong reviews, positive word-of-mouth, and cross-generational appeal, the film is guaranteed to have strong legs at the box office. Now that Frozen is reaching the end of its run, Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s new movie also has a corner on the family entertainment market, which also plays into The LEGO Movie’s favor.
#2 – About Last Night
We’re picking the new romantic comedy About Last Night to come in second. Kevin Hart has been heavily featured in the marketing, and since January’s Ride Along has passed the $100 million mark, it’s safe to say the comedian is becoming a big draw for audiences. The film should also play well for couples looking for an appealing date night choice on Valentine’s Day. About Last Night’s subject matter and star power (Almost Human’s Michael Ealy also has a role) will give it the edge over the new releases this week.
#3 – Robocop
1980s remake Robocop is our choice for third place. Paul Verhoeven’s 1987 original grossed $53.4 million (over $114 million adjusted for inflation) and the film has remained a favorite among sci-fi fans in the years since. While its brand name is recognizable, fans of the first film may be skeptical of the remake due to its PG-13 rating (not to mention, the original’s iconic status could lower demand for this reinvention). Also, opening on Wednesday, February 12 should have an impact on its three-day weekend totals – since those most interested could see it before Friday.
Director Jose Padilha assembled a nice cast for his reboot, with well-regarded Hollywood veterans like Gary Oldman, Samuel L. Jackson, and Michael Keaton all having major roles. None of them can be considered box office draws on their own, but they’ve all appeared in their fair share of blockbuster hits – increasing their mainstream appeal. Obviously, Robocop is the main star here, but curious moviegoers could be enticed by the impressive roster of supporting players and check this one out.
#4 – The Monuments Men
Look for The Monuments Men (read our review) to come in fourth this week. George Clooney’s latest directorial outing posted a solid $22 million during its first three days, but the chances of it having much staying power are very low. The response from both critics and audiences was decidedly mixed. With a fresh batch of new releases to choose from, adult audiences will most likely pass on this World War II drama – despite the large amount of big-name talent in front of the camera.
#5 – Winter’s Tale
Rounding out the top five should be Winter’s Tale. As one of three new releases geared for the Valentine’s Day crowd, it’ll be a struggle for Winter’s Tale to deal with the competition. Still, the film has enjoyed a healthy marketing campaign and the cast features recognizable actors Colin Farrell and Russell Crowe, both of whom have solid box office track records.
The trailers have also highlighted the involvement of Akiva Goldsman, who has penned a number of mainstream hits including The Da Vinci Code ($217.5 million), I, Robot ($144.8 million), and I Am Legend ($256.3 million). It’s hard to tell how many casual moviegoers are familiar with his name, but using Goldsman’s role in the Oscar-winning A Beautiful Mind ($170.7 million) as a selling point can’t hurt.
We do not expect Endless Love to crack the top five. Not only does it face an uphill climb with the sheer amount of competition this week, it lacks the star power of About Last Night and Winter’s Tale to have much mainstream appeal.
#10 – Vampire Academy
That’s it for this week’s breakdown.
Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it’s time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.
Opening in theaters this week (Wide):
- About Last Night – 2,000+ theaters
- Endless Love – 2,900 theaters
- Robocop – 3,000+ theaters (on Wednesday)
- Winter’s Tale – 2,750+ theaters
Opening in theaters this week (Limited):
Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.
Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (The LEGO Movie’s opening): Sal reports that there was a two-way tie between Caleb P and Chris B. They both had scores of 12 and nailed the tiebreaker.
For the record, here are our picks from last week – along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).
- #1 – The LEGO Movie (3)
- #2 – The Monuments Men (3)
- #3 – Ride Along (3)
- #4 – Vampire Academy (0)
- #5 – Lone Survivor (3)
- #10 – American Hustle
- Final Score: 12 points
Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!
Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90
Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)