Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Resident Evil: The Final Chapter’s opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of February 3 – 5, 2017.

This weekend, Rings opens in 3,000 theaters and The Space Between Us plays in 2,812 locations.

#1 – Split

Our choice for the top spot once again is Split (read our review). The latest original thriller from M. Night Shyamalan has been the pleasant surprise of the early going this year, grossing $81.1 million domestically during its run. It’s been the recipient of strong word-of-mouth from critics and audiences, which is something most films playing right now cannot say. Though the arrival of Rings should take away some business from Split, the latter’s positive reception and now famous twist should give it the edge for the weekend.

Split James McAvoy M Night Shyamalan Box Office Prediction: Rings vs. The Space Between Us

#2 – Rings

Coming in second should be Rings, the third installment in the famous horror franchise that began back in 2002. The series has experience varying degrees of success. The original entry was a bona fide hit, grossing $129.1 million in the U.S. 2005’s sequel fared far worse, making only $76.2 million Stateside. While the property remains recognizable, there’s some question about just how bankable it still is. Additionally, Rings went through a troubled production process, as it had numerous release date shifts. It was originally scheduled to come out in 2015, but was constantly delayed until now. That is not the best sign for its potential quality. There are also no reviews currently published online, which typically bodes poorly for its prospects. Rings hasn’t been able to generate much buzz, so casual viewers may not be interested.

As a result, Rings should have a fairly soft debut in its first three days. Projections are set for $10.5 million, which sounds reasonable. Thriller fans still have Split available as a viable option, so Rings cannot depend on the horror crowd to come out and support it in droves. Without any real A-list talent attached to increase its appeal, the film is going to have an uphill climb at the box office.

#3 – Hidden Figures

We believe Hidden Figures (read our review) will come in third this weekend. The space race drama has performed extremely well during its domestic run and is showing no signs of slowing down. Thanks to its awards nominations and positive audience reception, it’s remained at the top of the charts since it went wide last month. There’s no reason to think that can’t continue, especially with the new releases not posing much of a challenge for ticket buyers.

Hidden Figures Box Office Prediction: Rings vs. The Space Between Us

#4 – A Dog’s Purpose

After coming in second last week, we think A Dog’s Purpose will slide to fourth in its second weekend. The family film managed $18.2 million in its first three days, but it’s not exactly an audience favorite. Between the mostly negative reviews and backlash following the animal abuse controversy, there may not be much interest in seeing it now. Dog lovers could still show up out of curiosity, but the movie clearly is not a crossover hit.

#5 – La La Land

Rounding out the top five should be La La Land (read our review). The acclaimed musical remains a box office heavyweight, now standing at an impressive $108.9 million domestically. As the countdown to the Oscars gets underway, cinephiles and casual viewers trying to catch up on all the candidates will try to make time to see La La Land at the theater.

Notes

While it’s the challenger in our header (being the week’s only other wide release), we do not believe The Space Between Us will crack the top five this week. The film is currently panned by critics and it’s entering theaters with very little fan fare. Awareness could be an issue, as illustrated by the $6.2 million opening estimate.

 Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. Split
  2. A Dog’s Purpose
  3. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter
  4. Hidden Figures
  5. La La Land

Actuals:

  1. Split
  2. A Dog’s Purpose
  3. Hidden Figures
  4. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter
  5. La La Land

Next Week: John Wick: Chapter Two, LEGO Batman, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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