Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Ride Along 2‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of January 22 – 24, 2016.

This weekend, Dirty Grandpa opens in more than 2,900 theaters, The 5th Wave debuts in 2,908 locations, and The Boy plays at 2,671 theaters.

#1 – The Revenant

Our choice for the top spot is The Revenant (read our review), which has been performing extremely well since its nationwide expansion a few weeks ago. So far, the film has accumulated $101 million, capitalizing on the Oscar buzz for the movie and star Leonardo DiCaprio. It has all the momentum right now, and none of the new releases have a high profile. Coming off 12 Academy Award nominations, The Revenant should continue to draw in big crowds and best the rest of the competition.

Leonardo DiCaprio as Hugh Glass in The Revenant 2015 Box Office Prediction: Ride Along 2 vs. Dirty Grandpa

#2 – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Coming in second should be Star Wars: The Force Awakens (read our review). Though the space opera’s time in the #1 spot is over, it still remains a viable draw for audiences. It made $26.3 million last week in its fifth weekend, demonstrating it still has sizable legs. Furthermore, Star Wars 7 has begun to outgross Ride Along 2 in the daily charts, sending the comedy sequel down to third place. The margin may be slim, but Star Wars looks like it has the edge.

#3 – Ride Along 2

Look for last week’s champ, Ride Along 2 (read our review) to slide to third in its second weekend. The followup to 2014’s comedy hit debuted with $35.2 million in its first three days, a bit below how the first film opened. While it found success in its opening, Ride Along 2 doesn’t appear to have that much appeal. The negative critical reaction is hurting its box office legs, and the film is already slipping down the daily charts. With another mainstream comedy coming out this weekend, business for Ride Along 2 may suffer, since demand is no longer high.

ride along 2 review kevin hart ice cube 2016 Box Office Prediction: Ride Along 2 vs. Dirty Grandpa

#4 – Dirty Grandpa

Our choice for fourth is Dirty Grandpa, the new comedy starring Robert De Niro and Zac Efron. The latter of these leading men found success in this genre in 2014, when Neighbors became a hit at $150.1 million. Most of that film’s success could be chalked up to Seth Rogen, but Efron proved he had comedic chops and sold his abilities to comedy fans. Seeing him play the straight man to De Niro’s wild elder could be an amusing change-of-pace, giving this film some extra appeal.

De Niro has some box office clout of his own. He was part of the Last Vegas ensemble that brought in $63.9 million domestically, and just last year De Niro teamed with Anne Hathaway to help The Intern make $75.7 million in the States. He’s not breaking any records with his films, but the acting legend still knows how to draw in audiences. Dirty Grandpa is entering theaters with limited buzz and is only projected to make $10.8 million in its first three days, but there’s enough star power here to bring some people out.

#5 – The Boy

Rounding out the top five should be The Boy, a new horror film from STX Entertainment. There’s limited awareness surrounding the project, but this is a genre that has success in January. After The Forest came and went without much of an impact, there’s still a void for moviegoers looking for a scare. This could do the trick, even if it doesn’t have widespread appeal. Early estimates have it pegged for an $11.8 million opening weekend. You may notice that’s higher than Dirty Grandpa, but the comedy has A-list talent involved and a more visible marketing campaign. It’s less niche than The Boy.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. Ride Along 2
  2. The Revenant
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
  5. Norm of the North

Actuals:

  1. Ride Along 2
  2. The Revenant
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
  5. Daddy’s Home

Next Week: The Finest Hours, Kung Fu Panda 3 and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office [1] [2] (Opening Weekend Projections)

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