Box Office Prediction: ‘Pompeii’ vs. ‘The LEGO Movie’

Published 6 months ago by

Pompeii vs. Lego Box Office Prediction: Pompeii vs. The LEGO Movie
Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Robocop‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of February 21 – 23, 2014.

This weekend, disaster action movie Pompeii opens in 2,500 theaters and action film 3 Days to Kill debuts in 2,500 theaters. In Secret gets a limited release of 250 theaters while In Wind Rises sees a release in 21 locations.

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#1 – The LEGO Movie

We’re picking The LEGO Movie (read our review) to finish in the top spot for the third week in a row. The animated hit from directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller grossed over $50 million last weekend and is showing no signs of slowing down. As the only major family film on the market, it will continue to bring in that demographic for the foreseeable future.

the lego movie sequel Box Office Prediction: Pompeii vs. The LEGO Movie

#2 – About Last Night

Romantic comedy About Last Night (read our review) should also repeat as the second highest-grossing film of the weekend. The remake made $25.6 million during its first three days, taking advantage of the Valentine’s Day holiday. While it could fall a bit in its second week, any potential decline should not be that drastic. Neither of this week’s new releases are big enough to compete with the star power of Kevin Hart.

#3 – Robocop

Continuing with this week’s trend, we believe that Robocop (read our review) will repeat as third this week. The ’80s remake received a stronger critical reception than expected, and that could help sway moviegoers this week (the new releases are arriving with very little fanfare). Robocop’s $21.7 million gross over its first three days indicates that the demand was never that high, but since Pompeii and 3 Days to Kill are both tracking very low at this point, this sci-fi film could edge them out.

#4 – Pompeii

Our choice for fourth is the action/disaster film Pompeii. Director Paul W.S. Anderson (not to be confused with multiple Oscar-nominee Paul Thomas Anderson) is perhaps best known for directing the Resident Evil film franchise. While those movies have their niche audience, the filmmaker has been unable to find mainstream success throughout his career. 2011’s The Three Musketeers bombed with a $20.3 million gross and even 2012’s Resident Evil: Retribution failed to make much of an impact, bowing out with $42.3 million.

This pattern doesn’t seem like it will change with Pompeii. While the movie could find an audience with die-hard action fans, it’s unlikely to have widespread appeal since the previews have not generated much excitement.

pompeii trailer kit harington1 Box Office Prediction: Pompeii vs. The LEGO Movie

#5 – The Monuments Men

Rounding out the top five should be The Monuments Men (read our review). Despite a lukewarm critical reception, George Clooney’s historical drama has posted solid numbers so far (including $15.5 million last weekend), thanks to the sheer amount of star power it has. That alone could be enough to help it maintain its place for at least one more week

#10 – Frozen

Our tiebreaker this week is Frozen (read our review). Disney’s Oscar nominated animated hit finished in eighth place last week.

Notes

We do not believe 3 Days to Kill will finish in the top five. Despite a healthy marketing campaign and the presence of Kevin Costner, there doesn’t appear to be enough interest in this action movie to say that it will be a hit. Costner has not been a box office draw in a while (obviously, Man of Steel made over $291 for other reasons) and early tracking numbers do not suggest a big weekend.

That’s it for this week’s breakdown.

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Screen Rant Underground Logo Header Box Office Prediction: Pompeii vs. The LEGO Movie

Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it’s time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.

Opening in theaters this week (Wide):

  • Pompeii – 2,500 theaters
  • 3 Days to Kill – 2,500 theaters

Opening in theaters this week (Limited):

  • In Secret – 250 theaters
  • The Wind Rises – 21 theaters

Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.

Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Robocop‘s opening): Sal reports that 68FC is the winner with a score of 12 points.

For the record, here are our picks from last week – along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).

  • #1 – The LEGO Movie (3)
  • #2 – About Last Night (3)
  • #3 – Robocop (3)
  • #4 – The Monuments Men (3)
  • #5 – Winter’s Tale (0)
  • #10 – Vampire Academy
  • Final Score: 12 points

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Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)

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TAGS: box office

14 Comments

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  1. 1 The Lego Movie
    2 About Last Night
    3 Pompeii
    4 Robocop
    5 Monument’s Men
    10 Winter’s Tale

  2. 1.The Lego Movie
    2.About Last Night
    3.Robocop
    4.Pompeii
    5.The Monuments Men
    10.Lone Survivor

  3. I think for the weekend of Feb 21-23:

    1) Pompeii: The trailers look amazing and with Kit Harington from Game of Thrones in it will do huge business. And with the story of Pompeii behind the movie. I think it will do somewhere between 35-40 million. All the people that come to the theater that I work at wants to see it.

    2) Lego movie: it is a okay movie most adults that watch it at the theater I work at tell me it was one stupid movie and they should have seen Lone Survivor or Robocop instead. I think it will do somewhere between 30-35 million.

    3) About Last Night: 11-15 million this weekend
    4) Three days to Kill: 8-10 million
    5) Robocop: 8-10 million

    so I think that Pompeii will be number 1 this weekend, because it has a great cast, action, fighting, and a true story behind it and all the trailers look amazing and the people that like Game of Thrones will see it for Kit Harington. And you can not judge a movie because what the director did previously. This movie looks 10 times better than his other movies.

    • I dunno, LEGO opened here this past weekend and most adults who saw it seem to love the hell out of it, whether they think it was stupid or not.

      Plus Robocop didn’t do so well here on Feb 7th opening and Lone Survivor opened 6th so it sort of tells you that Brits don’t like pro-US war movies or crappy remakes.

      I’d say LEGO takes the top spot on both sides of the Atlantic for another week and Pompeii’s US opening puts it at 2nd (not out here for a while).

  4. 1. Lego Movie
    2. Pompeii
    3. About Last Night
    4. Robocop
    5. Monuments Men
    10. Frozen

  5. 1. Lego Movie
    2. About Last Night
    3. Robocop
    4. 3 Days to Kill
    5. Pompeii
    10. Lone Survivor

    I finally won, I’m so happy.

  6. I am not a fan of Paul W.S Anderson but I hope for the best for Pompeii. Kit Harrington is awesome and I love me so Emily Browning, so we’ll see.

  7. 1. Lego Movie
    2. About Last Night
    3. Pompeii
    4. Robocop
    5. Monuments Men
    10. Frozen

  8. From the trailer Pompeii looks like its over and hour of volcano exploding.

  9. 1. The Lego Movie
    2. About Last Night
    3. Robocop
    4. The Monuments Men
    5. Pompeii
    10. Frozen

  10. 1. Lego Movie
    2. Pompeii
    3. Robocop
    4. About Last Night
    5. 3 Days to Kill
    10. Frozen

  11. It doesnt matter. The review doesnt mean anything to me at all.. Never will.

    I want to see Pompeii, Robocop and Frozen. Again, the review is just inaccurate and opinion. The people have their own taste that is up and down rates for the popular. I dont watch the popular movies anyway. I just like to see some movies with my own taste and not for them and not listen to them..none. My prefer and my own taste and my decision to make. :) Sorry for the English. Thanks.

  12. 1. Lego Movie
    2. About Last Night
    3. Robocop
    4. Pompeii
    5. Monuments Men
    10 Winter’s Tale

  13. 1. The Lego Movie
    2. About Last Night
    3. Robocop
    4. Pompeii
    5. The Monuments Men
    10. Winter’s Tale

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