Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Alien: Covenant‘s opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of May 26 – 28.

This weekend, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales opens in 4,276 theaters and Baywatch debuts in 3,647 locations.

#1 – Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Coming in first this Memorial Day weekend should be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (read our review), the latest installment in Disney’s lucrative swashbuckling series. The franchise has been a consistent moneymaker for the studio, though the last few entries have seen a troubling downward trajectory. After peaking in 2006 with Dead Man’s Chest ($423.3 million), each movie in the series has made less than its predecessor. Domestically, 2011’s On Stranger Tides hit an all-time low with $241 million, and with six years separating that film from Pirates 5, it’s worth wondering what the demand for this property is now. Still, there are some factors working in its favor.

Ever since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 debuted at the beginning of May, the box office as a whole has been dealt some bad cards with King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Alien: Covenant underperforming to varying degrees. Since the hype surrounding Marvel’s latest has cooled off in the last few weeks, people might be interested in checking out a new slice of PG-13 genre entertainment. On the other hand, increasingly positive buzz for Wonder Woman (which opens next week) may encourage some casual moviegoers to hold out and wait. Either way, it looks like the fifth Pirates film will do well for itself this week, if only because of limited competition. Estimates currently have it pegged for $83 million over the weekend.

Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean Dead Men Tell No Tales Box Office Prediction: Pirates of the Caribbean 5 vs. Baywatch

#2 – Baywatch

Our choice for second is Baywatch (read our review), which is an R-rated big screen reboot of the classic television series. Though there’s already talk of the movie receiving a sequel, it doesn’t appear that’s via audience demand. The reviews for Baywatch have been widely negative, which will certainly hurt the project’s commercial prospects. At least from a quality perspective, this does not seem to be the next 21 Jump Street, a film that handled its own source material with a similar approach to hilarious results.

One positive Baywatch has, however, is the presence of leading man Dwayne Johnson. The former wrestler has transformed into a huge box office draw the last few years, starring in everything from the most recent Fast and Furious films to his own original vehicles like San Andreas ($155.1 million) and Central Intelligence ($127.4 million). It’s clear he has a large fan base that will come to the theater to see him in a new action flick. Zac Efron, while not the same kind of reliable lock, still has Neighbors ($150.1 million) under his belt, showing he has the comedic chops to lead a movie such as this. The star power could keep Baywatch afloat, with the projections set at $32.5 million.

#3 – Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

In third should be Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (read our review), which continues to chug along and has made $310.9 million domestically as of this writing. Though it lost its crown to Alien: Covenant last weekend, the newest Marvel movie has now passed it on the daily charts, illustrating interest is higher in Baby Groot than a Xenomorph. With the multiplex getting more crowded, business should continue to slide down, but Guardians will stick around.

baby groot waving guardians of the galaxy vol 2 Box Office Prediction: Pirates of the Caribbean 5 vs. Baywatch

#4 – Alien: Covenant

Look for last week’s champ, Alien: Covenant (read our review), to fall to fourth in its second weekend. Ridley Scott’s prequel opened below expectations with $36.1 million domestically, a far cry from predecessor Prometheus. Despite a generally positive reaction, the demand for more Alien isn’t quite there, and audiences are already beginning to lose interest. With two new arrivals coming this weekend, Fox’s tentpole might become overshadowed and have an uphill climb to stay relevant.

#5 – Everything, Everything

Rounding out the top five should be Everything, Everything (read our review), which came in third last week with $11.7 million. The young adult romance should continue to thrive within its target demographic, even if it isn’t a breakout crossover hit like some similar titles have become.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. Alien: Covenant
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  3. Everything, Everything
  4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul
  5. Snatched

Actuals:

  1. Alien: Covenant
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  3. Everything, Everything
  4. Snatched
  5. King Arthur: Legend of the Sword

Next Week: Wonder Woman, Pirates, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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