It’s Wednesday, so that means it’s time for our weekly discussion post – where YOU determine the topics!
As usual – talk about whatever you like as long as it’s related to movies, TV or Screen Rant itself.
Mar 4, 2009 by Vic Holtreman
Open Discussion – March 4, 2009
TOP GALLERIES
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What was the best thing to come out of comic con everyone?
In previous comment threads the subject of “Watchmen” being a box office success has come up. With the debut just days away I thought it might be interesting to get some predictions of the level of success we are expecting.
To me it seems the studio has not pulled out enough stops when promoting this film. I don’t watch alot of T.V. and haven’t seen the preview five times. Plus it does nothing to discourage parents from bringing children that will be too young for what they are about to see. With that-my predictions:
Weekend #1: $25-$30 million. News media will start releasing their reviews (and warnings) and some buzz will finally get started.
Weekend #2: $45-$50 million. That rare case where the second week does better than the first. Thanks to the fans.
Weekend #3: $20-$25 million. Very strong for the third week. Thanks again to fans (and others) seeing it repeatedly, and the ‘Jonny’s come lately’.
Subsequent weeks: Numbers should drop off at about a rate of $3-$8 million per week.
Grand total: $120 million in the first month, and topping out at $215 million before disappearing from the theaters. “Watchmen” will stay in the top ten at the box office longer than most expect and until just before being pulled from general release.
I’ve never done this before, so I could be so far off that you can’t read through you tears of laughter. But its ‘open discussion’ right?
Anyone else game?
Same as usual. Proof that guy nerds do have hope in finding a girl.
@Ken X
Do you mean WonderCon? I wish I could have attended, but from what I’ve read I’d have to say it was the Star Trek and Terminator Salvation trailers.
I’m waiting eagerly for the new Trek trailer to show up online so I can post it here.
Vic
I think Watchmen will do fine at the box office and I am predicting in the 55-65 million dollar range and finishing with 175-190 million dollars depending on word-of-mouth. That’s about on par with what the first X-Men movie did in terms of ticket sales when you take inflation into consideration.I hope my estimates prove to be conservative when all is said and done because the movie does deserve a better fate than to be a box office disappoinment. Of course that’s not including international box office but that belongs to another studio..I’ve heard that Watchmen cost 120 million to produce and with a P+A budget of 40-50
million..It will have to make 260-300 million to make a profit..assumimg WB is footing the entire production and P+A budgets..which I highly doubt..fans of the comics will show up for this opening weekend and it will do big box office on it’s first weekend..I don’t think as much as 300 but box office numbers have been really hard to call this year as the market has been very unpredictable..no one was predicting Paul Blart or Taken making over 100 million dollars and we know how that turned out.Even the best analysts have been way off the mark for a lot of films so far in 2009. Watchmen is a tough one too because some analysts are saying 80 million while others are saying high forties low fifties…I think it will live and die during it’s theatrical run by word of mouth…If it has strong word of mouth it will do north of 200 million easily especially considering it’s release date…March is a very underrated month to release a tentpole but 300 has helped to change that misperception..If it’s a great film I think it will show it in it’s final box office numbers and besides it is going to be a boom for WB when it is released on the home market for DVD & Blu-Ray…Isn’t it going to be re-released in theaters in July as a Director’s Cut too? I think I read that somehwere..Also with several DVD releases soming as well I thik it highly unlikely that WB has anything to lose on this film…I hope I’m not wrong here..
If Watchmen does well now, yes, it will be re-released as a director’s cut in July theatrically. I think the IMAX factor will help the box office but I’m very curious as to what word of mouth will be on this.
And don’t forget that Fox gets 8% of the gross as well.
Vic
Any word yet on what the hell is happening with “Eureka”? Has the show been canned or something?
@ Vic, yea i meant wondercon. and I am waiting eagerly for you to post that new trailer as well!
I too think watchmen will do well. Ive heard alot of people say they are excited for it…and they are not comic nerds like me at all! I would def like to see it in Imax, but its pretty far away from me and I think the Directors Hall is good enough.