Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Pompeii‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of February 28 – March 2, 2014.
This weekend, action movie Non-Stop is released in over 3,000 theaters and religious drama Son of God debuts in 3,000 locations. Repentance debuts in 150 theaters, Stalingrad gets a release of 300 theaters and The Wind Rises plays in 450 theaters.
#1 – The LEGO Movie
Once again, our choice for the top spot is The LEGO Movie (read our review). WB’s animated hit has had a phenomenal run so far, grossing over $183 million domestically in three weeks. There’s still one more week before the release of Mr. Peabody and Sherman, so families will still opt for this movie for now.
#2 – Non-Stop
Coming in second should be this week’s major release, Non-Stop, the new movie starring Liam Neeson. The actor has reinvented himself in recent years as a bankable action star, most famously in 2009’s Taken (over $145 million). While his other big vehicles have not fared as well (Unknown, $63.6 million; The Grey, $51.5 million), they do have a solid track record of opening with respectable numbers. There’s also a possibility that this film emerges as an appealing counter-programming option for adult moviegoers without children.
Those who are not already fans of Neeson’s recent filmography are unlikely to convert with Non-Stop, but he’s proven that he has a fan base interested in seeing him on the screen.
#3 – Son of God
Our pick for third is Son of God. While religious dramas don’t typically perform well at the box office (2004’s The Passion of the Christ is an outlier), it should take advantage of the current marketplace and crack the top five. None of the holdovers (save for The LEGO Movie) are drawing people in, so some curious moviegoers could check this one out. The marketing has not been as visible as Non-Stop, but tracking numbers indicate that Son of God will find an audience this weekend.
#4 – 3 Days to Kill
Coming in fourth should be 3 Days to Kill (read our review). After making $12.2 million last weekend, it’s unlikely that Kevin Costner’s action movie has strong legs at the box office. Non-Stop is targeting the same demographic, which will lower the demand for this film considerably.
#5 – Robocop
Rounding out the top five should be Robocop (read our review). The reboot of the classic sci-fi property has not exactly been impressive (over $44 million through two weeks), but it’s managed to hang in there despite a mixed critical reaction. Action fans could be preoccupied watching Liam Neeson stop terrorists on a plane, but those who want a sci-fi spin can turn to this.
#10 – Ride Along
That’s it for this week’s breakdown.
Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it’s time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.
Opening in theaters this week (Wide):
- Non-Stop – 3,000+ theaters
- Son of God – 3,000 theaters
Opening in theaters this week (Limited):
- Repentance – 150 theaters
- Stalingrad – 300 theaters
- The Wind Rises – 450 theaters
Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.
Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Pompeii‘s opening): Sal reports that The Prince That Was Promised is the winner with a score of 12 points.
For the record, here are our picks from last week – along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).
- #1 – The LEGO Movie (3)
- #2 – About Last Night (0)
- #3 – Robocop (1)
- #4 – Pompeii (1)
- #5 – The Monuments Men (3)
- #10 – Frozen
- Final Score: 8 points
Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!
Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90
Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)