Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Hidden Figures‘ opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of January 13 – 15, 2017.

This weekend, The Bye Bye Man opens in 2,220 theaters, Monster Trucks plays in 3,119 locations, Sleepless debuts in 1,803 theaters, Live By Night expands to 2,822 locations, Patriots Day expands to 3,120 theaters, and Silence expands to 747 theaters.

#1 – Hidden Figures

In what should be a tight race for first, we are giving the edge to Hidden Figures (read our review). The space race drama actually surpassed Rogue One: A Star Wars Story last week, narrowly edging out the blockbuster by less than $1 million. With a bevy of new releases this week, it will have its work cut out for it as it tries to repeat, but we think it will be able to. Hidden Figures has been the beneficiary of strong word-of-mouth, including some awards buzz as we make our way through Oscar season. The uplifting, inspirational film has definitely found an audience, and there’s no reason why that should not continue this week. It’s a fascinating story that many are curious to learn more about.

hidden figures movie janelle monae Box Office Prediction: Live By Night vs. Rogue One

#2 – Patriots Day

Our choice for second is Patriots Day (read our review), the Boston Marathon bombing drama from director Peter Berg, starring Mark Wahlberg. The filmmaker has made projects like this is niche in recent years, teaming up with Wahlberg on Lone Survivor ($125 million) in 2013 and Deepwater Horizon ($61.4 million) in 2016. The war drama was by far the bigger hit of those two, but Deepwater Horizon scored many positive reviews that probably helped generate some goodwill for Patriots Day. Viewers know that the collaborations between Berg and Wahlberg can be hard-hitting, emotionally compelling tales that bring true life events to the big screen in captivating ways. Patriots Day should be a continuation of that trend, as it has earned much critical acclaim.

Patriots Day opened in limited release back in December, and so far it’s made $912,806 domestically from seven locations. It has a great per theater average that suggests there’s sizable demand to see it. Now that it’s finally expanding nationwide, the film should be in great shape. Projections are currently set at $21.5 million for the 4-day Martin Luther King holiday weekend, which is slightly higher than Deepwater Horizon‘s debut.

#3 – Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Coming in third should be Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (read our review), which finished in second last week with $22 million. Business for Lucasfilm’s spinoff is slowing down now that it’s been out for a while, but it is still one of the biggest films currently playing and continues to post high numbers due to repeat viewings. Its time in the #1 spot may be over, but it should still stick around the top of the charts for at least another weekend.

Diego Luna as Cassian Andor Felicity Jones as Jyn Erso in Rogue One A Star Wars Story Rebel Alliance Box Office Prediction: Live By Night vs. Rogue One

#4 – Sing

Our choice for fourth is Sing (read our review), which came in third last week with $20.7 million. The latest from Illumination Entertainment has taken advantage of a lack of competition, essentially having a monopoly on the family demographic. There’s a chance that Sing receives some pushback from Monster Trucks, which is also targeted at kids, but since that movie has generated very little buzz, it seems like any hit Sing takes will be small.

#5 – La La Land

Rounding out the top five should be La La Land (read our review). Damien Chazelle’s musical has been a magnet for awards, and that has only helped its commercial prospects. It continues to impress at the box office, and is now up to $57.7 million domestically for its run. After its record Golden Globes performance, it should only continue to draw in large crowds – especially with the Oscar nominations right around the corner. This has become one of the most buzzed-about titles of the season, and moviegoers are eager to check it out.

Notes

Due to A-lister Ben Affleck starring and directing, we chose Live By Night (read our review) as one of the two featured movies for the headline this week, but we think it will finish outside the top five. In his short career as a filmmaker, Affleck has combined critical acclaim with box office success. The Town made $92.1 million in 2010, while Argo brought in $136 million en route to its Best Picture win. However, Live By Night has some hurdles it needs to clear. The film has received middling-to-negative reviews and did not become the awards contender Warner Bros. hoped when they gave it an Oscar qualifying run. In limited release, Live By Night has grossed $181,963 from four theaters, and now it has to deal with a lot of competition in a wide expansion. Tracking is only $9 million.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  2. Sing
  3. Hidden Figures
  4. A Monster Calls
  5. Underworld: Blood Wars

Actuals:

  1. Hidden Figures
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  3. Sing
  4. Underworld: Blood Wars
  5. La La Land

Next Week: xXx: Return of Xander CageSplit, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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