Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The Great Wall‘s opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of February 24 – 26, 2017.

This weekend, Get Out opens in 2,781 theaters, Rock Dog debuts in 2,077 locations, and Collide plays in 2,045 theaters.

#1 – Get Out

Our choice for first is Get Out (read our review), the new horror film written and directed by Jordan Peele. Peele, of course, is one half of the famous comedy duo Key and Peele, who had a popular sketch show that attracted a wide fan base. That built-in audience didn’t exactly help last year’s comedy Keanu (which starred Key and Peele and only made $20.5 million domestically), but things could end up being a little different this time around. For starters, Get Out has received unanimous critical acclaim, with many people praising it as a smart and funny piece of satire. Additionally, its premise of a black man who visits his white girlfriend’s parents for the weekend is ripe for fascinating commentary on modern race relations, a hot button issue in society. That certainly gives it an edge that will pique interests.

As such, Get Out is poised to have a stellar opening weekend. Projections are currently set at $27 million, which would be a strong haul for the thriller. It seems to have an easy road to the top, as this week’s other new releases are arriving with very limited fan fare, and there isn’t much direct competition. M. Night Shyamalan’s Split was another horror entry that dominated the box office in the early part of 2017, but that has been playing for a while now, meaning Get Out should be the feature of choice for genre fans.

get out movie 2017 Box Office Prediction: The LEGO Batman Movie vs. Get Out


#2 – The LEGO Batman Movie

Two-time reigning champ, The LEGO Batman Movie (read our review), should slide to second in its third weekend. The animated spinoff has currently done very well during its run, grossing $112.2 million domestically to date. As one of the few family films playing at the multiplex, it will still be set up for another fruitful weekend, but the buzzed-about Get Out (while obviously targeting a different audience) is riding a wave of momentum right now that will be difficult for anything to stop.

#3 – Fifty Shades Darker

We believe Fifty Shades Darker (read our review) will come in third this week. The romance drama has been trailing behind its predecessor in regards to box office figures, meaning its audience is somewhat limited, but the fan base of the source material is substantial enough to keep Darker hanging around for at least another week. Ticket sales for the book adaptation should continue to decline now that Valentine’s Day and the initial hype surrounding the release have passed, though it’s still drawing in decent crowds.

fifty shades darker johnson dornan Box Office Prediction: The LEGO Batman Movie vs. Get Out


#4 – John Wick: Chapter 2

Our pick for fourth is John Wick: Chapter 2 (read our review), which has already outperformed the original film in the burgeoning franchise. Thanks to strong word-of-mouth from critics and audiences, the action sequel has done very well for itself since it opened a couple of weeks ago, and there’s no reason why that can’t continue. The R-rated Logan is still a week away, so those craving hard-hitting, brutal violence in their genre picks have to go to the underworld of the Baba Yaga.

 

#5 – The Great Wall

Rounding out the top five should be The Great Wall (read our review), which stumbled out of the gates last week with $18.4 million in its first three days. It was able to top John Wick 2 last weekend, but we think the two will flip this time out. Chapter 2 has started to beat The Great Wall on the daily charts, suggesting it’s the title that’s more in-demand. Given the reception of The Great Wall, that’s not the most surprising development.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. The LEGO Batman Movie
  2. Fifty Shades Darker
  3. John Wick: Chapter 2
  4. The Great Wall
  5. Fist Fight

Actuals:

  1. The LEGO Batman Movie
  2. Fifty Shades Darker
  3. The Great Wall
  4. John Wick: Chapter 2
  5. Fist Fight

Next Week: How high can Logan go?

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)