Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend — to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Goosebump‘s opening weekend — and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of October 23 – 25, 2015.
This weekend, The Last Witch Hunter opens in more than 3,000 theaters, Jem and the Holograms debuts in 2,411 theaters, Rock the Kasbah plays in more than 2,000 theaters, Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension plays in an unspecified number of locations, and Steve Jobs expands nationwide to 2,491 theaters.
#1 – The Last Witch Hunter
Our pick for first is The Last Witch Hunter, the new vehicle for Vin Diesel. The action star had one of the biggest hits of all-time earlier this year with Furious 7, but his box office track record isn’t so solid when he moves away from Dom Toretto’s family. His Riddick made just $42 million for its entire run domestically, and before that Babylon A.D. could only manage $22.5. There seems to be a case of the actor never being able to escape the shadow of his trademark series.
Things aren’t expected to be much better this time around, with early projections currently suggesting an opening weekend in the $14 million range. The only reason why it could crawl its way up to the top spot is that there isn’t a whole lot of competition out there right now, and regardless of his past commercial performances, Diesel still is a fan-favorite name who can draw audiences in. Reviews aren’t positive and there isn’t much buzz surrounding the film, but The Last Witch Hunter could be opening at the right time for its purposes.
#2 – Steve Jobs
Coming in second should be Steve Jobs (read our review), with the biopic expanding nationwide this weekend after spending the past two weeks in limited release. Danny Boyle’s Oscar contender has posted strong numbers in that limited release, as it came in eleventh last weekend with $1.5 million in 60 theaters. It’s not outside the realm of possibility, then, that Steve Jobs has a very respectable debut to a wider audience, as there seems to be some interest in the project. After playing on the festival circuit, the film has been generating positive buzz, and many pundits fully expect it to be a major awards player. It may not be a runaway commercial hit, but Steve Jobs is going to bring a good amount of people to the theater, particularly Apple fans curious to see the tech icon’s life on the big screen.
#3 – Goosebumps
Look for last week’s champ, Goosebumps (read our review), to fall to third in its second weekend. The film posted $23.6 million in its first three days, which is a nice start. However, it indicates that there isn’t much mainstream appeal for the horror comedy, so it may not hold all that well. It’s true that families don’t have much to pick from right now, but they didn’t exactly turn out in full force last week. Goosebumps will still draw members of that demographic in, but as business starts to decline a bit, it’s unlikely it can remain number one for another week.
#4 – Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension
Our pick for fourth is Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, which is the latest installment in the famous found footage horror movie franchise. The series has certainly seen better days, as Paranormal Activity 4 brought in $53.9 million and the spinoff The Marked Ones made only $32.4 million. Long gone are the days where a Paranormal Activity film could scare audiences into $100+ million grosses, and it’s unlikely that this one reverses those fortunes.
The Ghost Dimension is expected to make just $10.5 million in its first three days, which would be the lowest debut for the franchise since the 2009 original opened in 12 theaters. It also won’t help the film’s box office prospects that it’s going to be part of a new release strategy by Paramount, as they will make the film available on VOD shortly after its theatrical premiere. Any moviegoers interested in seeing the film could just wait to catch it at home instead of trekking to the theater to see it.
#5 – Bridge of Spies
Rounding out the top five should be Bridge of Spies (read our review), which grossed $15.3 million during its opening weekend. That’s far from director Steven Spielberg’s strongest debut, but the film did do well for itself. It’s scored positive reviews and is in the early Oscar conversation, so adult audiences will continue to support it. However, it clearly didn’t have much appeal to a widespread crowd, so it may not not have the strongest hold in its second week.
Last Week’s Recap
- The Martian
- Bridge of Spies
- Crimson Peak
- The Martian
- Bridge of Spies
- Crimson Peak
- Hotel Transylvania 2
Next Week: Our Brand is Crisis, Scout’s Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, and more!