Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2‘s opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of May 12 – 14.
This weekend, King Arthur: Legend of the Sword opens in 3,702 theaters and Snatched plays in 3,501 locations.
#1 – Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Easily repeating in the top spot should be Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (read our review), which won its opening weekend with a huge $146.5 million haul. Marvel’s latest has proven to be another winner with both critics and fans, adding to the franchise’s already sizable roster of hits. Word-of-mouth, while not as overwhelmingly positive as its predecessor, is still quite strong, and there isn’t anything opening of high enough profile to dethrone it from the #1 position. Guardians 2 should have a clear path to another victory, even if it suffers a second weekend drop-off. Its debut numbers were too high for it to start falling down the charts this early in its run.
#2 – King Arthur: Legend of the Sword
In what should be a close race for second place, we’re giving a slight edge to King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (read our review), a reboot of the classic tale directed by Guy Ritchie. The filmmaker has some notable hits under his belt, including the most recent Sherlock Holmes movies starring Robert Downey, Jr. While King Arthur does not feature that charismatic leading man, it still boasts Ritchie’s impressive visual style, offering an interesting and different interpretation of the well-known mythos. Though there isn’t much fan fare surrounding the project, Legend of the Sword was able to sell out advanced screenings in order to drum up hype. Recent TV spots have made use of positive social media buzz in an effort to draw people to the theater.
However, King Arthur has an uphill climb. A majority of the professional reviews were negative, a development that will surely hurt its prospects with the well-received Guardians still being fresh. Additionally, Charlie Hunnam isn’t exactly a box office draw, as he’s known more for his role on TV’s Sons of Anarchy than any of his film projects. Hunnam was the star of 2013’s moderately successful Pacific Rim ($101.8 million domestically), but hasn’t been in much beyond that. Projections indicate an opening weekend of just $17.9 million, which is not the kind of start Warner Bros. wants for its $175 million investment.
#3 – Snatched
Coming in third should be Snatched, a new comedy starring Amy Schumer and Goldie Hawn about a daughter and mother that get kidnapped while on vacation. The film’s premise lends itself well to Mother’s Day weekend, as it’s likely daughters looking for a night out with their mothers could find a laugher like Snatched appealing. Schumer has also become one of the more popular faces in comedy over the past handful of years, carrying movies like Trainwreck ($110.2 million) to success. There’s also hope that Hawn’s return to the big screen after an extended absence will be a nice draw for older moviegoers who recognize the actress from her other films. It’s also been a while since a major comedy premiered, meaning Snatched could tap into an underserved demographic.
On the other hand, the reviews have been mostly negative, with pundits pointing out the flaws of the story and jokes (while praising the performances of the leads). Unless one is a major fan of Schumer or Hawn, they’re unlikely to rush out to the theater to see it over everything else that’s currently playing. Still, Snatched will likely find an audience – even if it’s not as big as some of Schumer’s earlier efforts. Tracking is currently set at $18 million. That’s higher than the estimates for King Arthur, but the difference is so small (and Arthur topped Snatched at the Thursday night box office), it’s a toss up.
#4 – The Boss Baby
Our pick for fourth is The Boss Baby (read our review), which came in third last week with $5.9 million. DreamWorks’ latest is still the only animated movie of note playing in theaters right now, making it an ideal choice for the juice box crowd. It’s true business is starting to go down, but limited competition for the target demographic will probably keep it hanging around for at least another week.
#5 – The Fate of the Furious
Rounding out the top five should be The Fate of the Furious (read our review). The action sequel came in second last week, taking a hard hit in ticket sales with the debut of Guardians 2. Fellow action flick King Arthur will also post a challenge for Fate, since it is going after the same PG-13 genre crowd. Dominic Toretto may have brought in $1 billion worldwide, but domestically he’s beginning to slip a bit.
Last Week’s Recap
We predicted Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 would gross $155 million during its first three days domestically.
We were slightly off, as the sequel made $146.5 million in its opening weekend.
Next Week: Alien: Covenant, Guardians of the Galaxy 2, and more!