Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Inside Out‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 26 – 28, 2015.
This weekend, comedy sequel Ted 2 opens in more than 3,200 theaters and Max debuts in over 2,850 locations. In limited release, the documentary Batkid Begins will play on 4 screens, and Big Game is released in an unspecified number of theaters.
#1 – Jurassic World
For the third weekend in a row, we’re picking Jurassic World (read our review) to come in the top spot. At this point, there isn’t much left to be said about the sci-fi blockbuster. Universal’s summer hit continues to smash box office records, and last week set a new high for best second weekend with $106.5 million in the States. Already at $402.8 million domestically, the film is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down. It’s hard to imagine – even with a big release like Ted 2 opening – that Jurassic World suffers the monumental collapse it would take in order for it to fall off the number one spot.
#2 – Inside Out
Coming in second should be Inside Out (read our review), which came in this spot last week. Though it was the first time in Pixar’s storied history that one of their wide releases did not debut in the top spot, the animation powerhouse isn’t going to be losing sleep over that bit of history. The family film broke the record for largest opening by an original film with a terrific $90.2 million intake over its first three days. Thanks to the universal critical acclaim and cross-generational appeal of the Pixar brand, there’s no reason why this movie can’t continue to post high numbers and have a great second weekend. Especially since there really aren’t any other options for this demographic, Inside Out has a nice road to maximum profits.
#3 – Ted 2
It’s the challenger in our header, but we believe Ted 2 will debut in third place this week. The original was a massive surprise hit in 2012, bringing in $218.8 million in the U.S. ($54.4 million of which came in its opening weekend). This sequel is expected to do similar business, as it is currently projected to take in $53 million for its opening weekend. Between the popularity of the first movie and Ted 2‘s very visible marketing campaign, that’s a fair estimation, as comedy fans are eager to get some raunchy laughs this summer.
So why do we have it down here? For starters, the original Ted was released in a far less competitive marketplace, with the 4 other films in the top five that weekend barely making more combined than what Jurassic World made on its own last week. The one-two punch of Jurassic and Inside Out is going to be difficult to beat, especially since Ted 2‘s R rating will limit its overall appeal (meaning, it won’t be getting those family dollars). That’s not to say the film will be a flop or a disappointment, it’s just the nature of the circumstances this summer make it hard for Ted 2 to be one of the top two films at the box office. Either way, Hollywood is going to be raking in the cash this week.
#4 – Max
Our choice for a very distant fourth is Max, a family film about a military dog and the boy who takes him in after the dog returns from war. Awareness shouldn’t really be an issue, as the film has had a decent sized ad campaign in the weeks leading up to its release. What does put it at a disadvantage is that the other movies playing are all of higher profile and have widespread reach to bring in the masses. Max does look like a nice, heartwarming family option, but with Inside Out around and Jurassic World still on fire, how many families are going to choose this over the others? Looks like not too many, as it’s only estimated to bring in $13 million opening weekend.
#5 – Spy
Rounding out the top five should be Spy (read our review). With Ted 2 opening, Paul Feig’s latest will see a hit in ticket sales, but Melissa McCarthy has a strong enough fan base that it shouldn’t be too drastic of a drop off just yet.
Last Week’s Recap
We correctly picked all five spots.
Next Week: Terminator: Genisys, Magic Mike XXL, and more!