Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Spy‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 12 – 14, 2015.
This weekend, sci-fi sequel Jurassic World hits over 4,000 theaters. In limited release, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl plays in 14 locations and Set Fire to the Stars opens on an unspecified number of screens.
#1 – Jurassic World
The easy pick for the top spot this week is Jurassic World, the long-delayed fourth installment in the seminal Jurassic Park franchise. Though some have been critical of the film’s marketing campaign over the past few months, there’s no denying that the trailers and TV spots have struck a chord with audiences. Fourteen years after Jurassic Park III graced theaters, moviegoers are hungry for some dinosaur action, as Jurassic World is tracking for an opening weekend in excess of $100 million (which would be far and away be the highest debut the series has seen). Jurassic World in the film may have an issue with attendance, but this movie certainly won’t.
There are a number of factors that make this so. Not only has the extended wait between entries increased the anticipation for a new Jurassic Park movie, the angle (John Hammond’s vision of a dinosaur amusement park is fully realized) is some fresh material for the filmmakers to explore and give audiences something new to look forward to. Also, the ads have been smart to place leading man Chris Pratt front and center, since the actor had a very successful 2014 with hits like The LEGO Movie and Guardians of the Galaxy. Between these elements and nostalgia for the property, Jurassic World has a clear and easy route to number one this weekend.
#2 – Spy
Look for last week’s champ, Spy (read our review), to fall to second during its second weekend. The Melissa McCarthy vehicle proved successful enough to reach the top of the charts in its debut, but its opening was much softer than expected ($29 million). Even with the positive critical reception and Paul Feig behind the camera, audiences didn’t show that much interest in the action/comedy. It should still perform well on its own, but with Jurassic World set to dominate business, it probably won’t have a blockbuster frame and begin to slide down now.
#3 – San Andreas
Our pick for third is San Andreas (read our review), which had a decent hold in its second weekend, bringing in $25.8 million. People have responded well to Dwayne Johnson taking on the earthquake, but the action genre crowd is going to get something even bigger in Chris Pratt vs. Indominus Rex on Friday, so San Andreas should take a bit of a hit in its third week. Still, the summer marketplace isn’t as crowded as one might expect, so the disaster film should still have another respectable three days at the box office.
#4 – Insidious: Chapter 3
Coming in fourth should be Insidious: Chapter 3 (read our review), which opened with a solid, but not great $22.6 million in its debut last weekend. Audiences clearly weren’t all that jazzed up for a return to this franchise in the midst of summer, and we don’t expect the horror film to turn things around and become a runaway success. This genre typically sees a significant decrease in ticket sales after its opening week, and that’s likely what will happen here.
#5 – Mad Max: Fury Road
Rounding out the top five should be Mad Max: Fury Road (read our review), which is still alive and kicking, hanging around the top five each week thanks to its impressive word-of-mouth. The hype surrounding the action flick has cooled down some in the month since its release, but people still want to experience the film on the big screen before it leaves theaters.
Last Week’s Recap
We picked the first four spots correctly. Our only roadblock for a perfect score was choosing Pitch Perfect 2 over Mad Max: Fury Road for fifth place.
Next Week: Inside Out, Jurassic World, and more!
Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)