Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Terminator: Genisys‘ opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of July 10 – 12, 2015.
This weekend, Minions and The Gallows both open in an unspecified number of theaters nationwide. Sci-fi film Self/Less will play in 2,400 theaters. In limited release, Nowitzki and Tangerine are playing on an undetermined number of screens.
#1 – Minions
After last week’s new arrivals failed to impress, things should be a little different this weekend. The easy pick for the top spot is Minions, a spinoff of the popular Despicable Me animated film series. By all accounts, the lovable yellow creatures known as “Minions” have transcended their original source material in terms of popularity, which is why Kevin, Stuart, and Bob are being placed front and center for this film. The movie is already generating a positive critical reaction, with many pundits saying that it’s an entertaining ride full of the laughs and comedic hijinks you’d expect from the Minions.
In turn, this should have a great impact on the movie’s box office prospects. Currently projected at $98 million for its first three days, Minions should have an easy road to number one. Yes, Inside Out will be competing for the same demographic, but Minions is a newer option that has been slowly building up hype for a while. It would be a shocker if this film didn’t win the weekend.
#2 – Jurassic World
Our pick for second is Jurassic World (read our review), which actually came in this spot last week (after initial estimates had it pegged for number one). In terms of big scale blockbuster entertainment, there isn’t much out there with widespread appeal, meaning that the spectacle seekers will have to “settle” for another round with Chris Pratt and his raptor friends. A month into its release, the film is still going strong, posting $29.2 million over the holiday weekend. Chances are it has another respectable outing this week.
#3 – Inside Out
Our pick for third is Inside Out (read our review). Pixar’s latest is quickly becoming one of the studio’s biggest hits, winning the Fourth of July weekend with $29.7 million. While the film should continue to make money, its business is going to take a little bit of a hit with the arrival of Minions. Universal’s animated flick is going after the same demographic as Inside Out is, meaning its days as the top family offering is over. At least Pixar executives made some new Joyful memories while the ride lasted.
#4 – Terminator: Genisys
Our pick for fourth is Terminator: Genisys (read our review), which had a less than stellar debut over the holiday frame with a weak $27 million. Clearly, this film doesn’t have much going for it, as both critics and audiences have had poor things to say about it. Nostalgia for a beloved property can only go so far, and with so many other films playing in the competitive summer season, Arnold being back just lacks the appeal it once had.
#5 – The Gallows
Rounding out the top five should be The Gallows, a new found-footage horror film. Because it has had such a small marketing presence, the filmmakers aren’t going for anything beyond the niche segment that craves horror content constantly. That means Gallows may do fine on its own, but be nothing to write home about, commercially speaking. The film is projected to make $11 in its first three days, and with all the high profile blockbuster out there, it’s hard to see how it does better than that.
Even with Ryan Reynolds in the lead, we don’t think Self/Less will crack the top five. Tracking for the movie is incredibly low, with analysts projecting a $5 million debut. That won’t cut it this time of year.
Last Week’s Recap
We were way off with our picks. Both Terminator: Genisys and Magic Mike XXL underperformed, and those were our selections for the top two spots on the charts. We underestimated the staying power the better-received Jurassic World and Inside Out had, which made our predictions a mess for last week.
Next Week: Minions, Ant-Man and more!