Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Jurassic World‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 19 – 21, 2015.
This weekend, family film Inside Out opens in 3,800 theaters and Dope is released in an unspecified number of theaters. On the limited front, we have Eden, Infinitely Polar Bear, and The Overnight all playing on an unspecified number of screens. Manglehorn debuts in 3 locations.
#1 – Jurassic World
Our pick for the top spot once again is Jurassic World (read our review), which defied even the rosiest expectations and posted the best opening weekend ever, be it globally or just domestically. The film is sitting pretty after bringing in a whopping $208.8 million during its first three days and based on the audience and critical reception, it shouldn’t have any troubles maintaining that high level of interest that steered it to unprecedented figures last week.
Normally, major tentpoles like this see a significant decrease during the second weekend (after the hype has cooled down), but this is a special case. Due to the sheer amount of money Jurassic World made last week, it would take quite the tumble for it to be knocked off of its perch at number one. For comparison’s sake, the only other film to clear $200+ million in an opening weekend – The Avengers – fell 50.3 percent the week after and still made $103 million more. Admittedly, the superhero film didn’t face as much competition as Jurassic World did, but it’s hard to see a scenario where Chris Pratt and his raptor buddies fall from grace so shortly after making movie history.
#2 – Inside Out
Our pick for second is Pixar’s new film, Inside Out, which is the beloved studio’s first new release since 2013’s Monsters University. Many moviegoers are excited to see another offering from the animation powerhouse, especially this original concept that promises to serve as a return to form for the brand. Pixar movies always do extremely well at the box office, but with Inside Out already scoring universally positive reviews (with several hailing it as the next Pixar classic), the crowds will be out in full effect this weekend to check it out. Family films are locks at the box office, but Pixar’s cross-generational appeal makes their projects something else.
So why do we have Inside Out positioned here and not number one? It’s “only” projected to bring in $71 million over its first three days, and unless Jurassic World‘s falls is quite significant, it will be difficult for Pixar’s latest to surpass the dinosaurs. This would mean Inside Out would be the first film in Pixar history to not debut in the top spot during its first week of wide release (so we’re betting against tradition here), but as the estimated numbers show, the studio certainly won’t be hurting for business this week. Pixar will be fine as it always has been.
#3 – Spy
Coming in third should be Spy (read our review), which finished in second last week with $15.6 million. Though the latest Melissa McCarthy vehicle isn’t becoming a runaway blockbuster, it’s still holding well (it only fell 46.3 percent last weekend) and the positive critical reaction will encourage comedy fans that it’s worth a look. There’s not much else playing for audiences looking for an (adult) laugh, so it may very well get a monopoly on that market and have another respectable week.
#4 – San Andreas
Our choice for fourth is San Andreas (read our review). Dwayne Johnson’s disaster thriller lost a lot of its blockbuster audience to Jurassic World, but it’s still doing decent. The $10.8 million gross last week showed that moviegoers are still interested in seeing The Rock battle an earthquake, so it should stick around the top five for another week.
#5 – Dope
Rounding out the top five should be Dope, this year’s Sundance darling that’s opening nationwide on Friday. Though the film will have limited commercial appeal (especially with all the high-profile competition), it could do well as a counter-programming option. Analysts have it pegged for an $8 million opening weekend, which certainly isn’t great, but for a small movie like this that’s strong business.
Last Week’s Recap
We picked the first four spots correctly. That pesky fifth spot was tricky to get right again. We had Mad Max: Fury Road, but it was actually Pitch Perfect 2 that clinched it.
Next Week: Ted 2, Inside Out, Jurassic World, and more!
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