Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The Huntsman: Winter’s Wars opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of April 29 – May 1, 2016.

This weekend, Keanu opens in more than 2,600 locations, Mother’s Day plays in 3,035 theaters, and Ratchet & Clank debuts in 2,891 locations.

#1 – The Jungle Book

We expect The Jungle Book (read our review) to pull off the three-peat. Since it first debuted, Disney’s latest box office smash has been performing very well and holding strong. Last weekend, it dropped only 40.4 percent and is currently at $202.2 million domestically. Thanks to the positive reviews and enthusiastic word-of-mouth, the film has had an easy time drawing in large crowds. It’s something that moviegoers of all ages can enjoy, and that cross-generational appeal will give it an edge over the new arrivals this week.

jungle book 2016 movie mowgli bagheera Box Office Prediction: The Jungle Book vs. Keanu

#2 – Keanu

Our choice for second is Keanu, a new comedy starring Keegan-Michael Key and Jordan Peele. Known as the comedy duo Key and Peele, the two have acquired a large fan base over the years due to their successful sketch show. That’s a fact the highly-visible marketing campaign has made a point to mention, which ideally will make the project appeal to more viewers. The premise of two friends posing as drug dealers to rescue their kitten sounds funny, and the trailers have highlighted the comedic prowess of the film’s leads. Key and Peele seem to be in their element here, and their first feature film should be a treat for fans of their show and the genre in general.

As a result, Keanu should be able to post respectable numbers at the box office over its first three days. Early projections have it pegged for about $15 million for opening weekend, but it could eclipse that estimate. The reviews so far have been positive, with some pundits applauding the movie for its strong sense of humor and surprisingly sweet heart. Casual audiences unsure of what to see this week could be inclined to check Keanu out based on the word-of-mouth. The R-rating will limit its appeal, meaning it won’t be able to unseat Jungle Book, but it’ll do fine on its own.

#3 – Mother’s Day

Coming in third should be Mother’s Day. The movie is the latest “holiday” film from director Gary Marshall, who previously helmed Valentine’s Day ($110.4 million) and New Year’s Eve ($54.5 million). As you can see from those figures, interest in the series has diminished greatly, and there wasn’t high demand for a third “installment.” While Mother’s Day may get a boost by releasing so close to its namesake and the star-studded ensemble, it’s unlikely it finds widespread success. The initial reviews are largely negative, which will only encourage moviegoers to stay away and opt for something else. Tracking indicates a $9.5 million opening weekend, and it’s hard to see Mother’s Day doing better than that.

Julia Roberts and Jennifer Aniston in Mothers Day Box Office Prediction: The Jungle Book vs. Keanu

#4 – The Huntsman: Winter’s War

Our pick for fourth is The Huntsman: Winter’s War (read our review), which struggled in its opening weekend with just $19.4 million. Due to poor reviews and bad word-of-mouth, there isn’t much interest in seeing this fantasy film, and business will most likely take a big hit this week.

#5 – Zootopia

Rounding out the top five should be Zootopia (read our review), which keeps hanging around and continues to perform well. The film has been one of 2016’s top performers so far, illustrating what universal praise can do for a movie’s prospects. It’s still going largely unchallenged for the family demographic, meaning that it will most likely have another strong hold. Ratchet & Clank is a fresh animated movie that could take some audience members away, but the response (and fanfare) for that video game adaptation isn’t high at all. Zootopia is still the family film of choice and should stay that way for another week.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. The Jungle Book
  2. The Huntsman: Winter’s War
  3. Barbershop: The Next Cut
  4. The Boss
  5. Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice

Actuals:

  1. The Jungle Book
  2. The Huntsman: Winter’s War
  3. Barbershop: The Next Cut
  4. Zootopia
  5. The Boss

Next Week: How high can Captain America: Civil War go?

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office Opening Weekend Projections)

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