Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Creed‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of December 4 – 6, 2015.
This weekend, Krampus plays in 2,800 theaters and The Letters debut in 1,000 locations. In limited release, Life opens in 12 theaters, while Macbeth, Youth, and Chi-Raq all play on an unspecified number of screens.
#1 – The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
Look for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (read our review) to threepeat in its third weekend. Despite “underperforming” when compared to its predecessors, the young adult adaptation continues to draw in large crowds. Even with several high-profile releases serving as competition over the Thanksgiving holiday, this franchise finale topped them all and made $52 million. Seeing as that there won’t be anything major coming out for another couple of weeks, it’s difficult to see Katniss Everdeen being dethroned. If Pixar couldn’t do it, The Hunger Games has a solid path for another week at #1.
#2 – The Good Dinosaur
In a close race for second, we’re giving the edge to The Good Dinosaur (read our review). Even though it’s not as acclaimed as some of Pixar’s earlier efforts, the family film has still generated positive word-of-mouth, which helped it bring in $55.4 million over its first five days. “Second-rate” Pixar is still better than most movies aimed at this demographic, and since it had a strong enough opening, it’s hard to envision a scenario where it gets knocked off.
#3 – Creed
Our pick for third is Creed (read our review). The Rocky spinoff grossed $42.1 million in its first five days over the Thanksgiving frame, already making its production budget back in domestic gross alone. While the film wasn’t able to top big name properties like Hunger Games and Pixar, it’s still doing very well with audiences. The reviews have been enthusiastic, and Creed has now been thrust into the Oscar conversation (with much attention being given Sylvester Stallone’s performance). It’s something that’s been able to appeal to franchise fans and casual moviegoers, so it should hold well in its second week.
#4 – Krampus
Though it’s listed as the challenger in the headline, our choice for fourth is Krampus, a new Christmas-themed horror movie about a boy who accidentally summons a demon to his home during the holidays. It’s got a premise appropriate for the month, but the odds are stacked against Krampus heading into the weekend. It’s coming into theaters without much buzz, and the cast lacks a true A-list draw to bring people in. In addition, the PG-13 rating could prevent it from becoming a hit with families, especially with other options for youngsters playing. It’s currently projected for a $14.5 million debut.
#5 – Spectre
Rounding out the top five should be Spectre (read our review). 007 continues to hang around, making $12.8 million last week. It’s true that Spectre was not as well-received as Skyfall, but James Bond is holding well with audiences looking for an action flick. Business is slowing down, but it should remain near the top for another week.
Last Week’s Recap
- The Good Dinosaur
- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1
- Victor Frankenstein
- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
- The Good Dinosaur
- The Peanuts Movie
Next Week: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, In the Heart of the Sea, and more!