Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Krampus’ opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of December 11 – 13, 2015.

This weekend, In the Heart of the Sea debuts in more tan 3,050 theaters and Legend gets an unspecified nationwide expansion. In limited release, The Big Short plays in 7 locations.

#1 – The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2

Our pick for the top spot once again is The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (read our review). The (apparent) franchise finale is trailing its predecessors commercially, but the film is hardly a flop, raking in $230.5 million since it opened. Mockingjay is losing business by considerable margins as the weeks have gone on (it saw a 63.7 percent drop last week), yet it remains the go-to option for moviegoers. None of the other films playing are generating any kind of noticeable buzz, so Hunger Games could make the most out of what’s shaping up to be a quiet weekend.

The Hunger Games Mockingjay Pt. 2 Reviews Movie Box Office Prediction: Mockingjay Part 2 vs. In the Heart of the Sea


#2 – In the Heart of the Sea

We believe that new release In the Heart of the Sea will open in second. The film comes from director Ron Howard, who has had a number of box office hits throughout his career (though, his track record has slipped since 2009’s Angels & Demons). In addition, Thor himself – Chris Hemsworth – is the leading man, giving the project a recognizable face for moviegoers to gravitate towards. Though, the actor’s non-Marvel filmography is decidedly lacking a hit. Earlier in 2015, he headlined the massive bomb Blackhat ($7.8 million), and his last collaboration with Howard, Rush, made just $26.9 million domestically.

In the Heart of the Sea is unlikely to reverse those fortunes. While it may not be an outright failure, it doesn’t look like it will be a smash hit either. Early reviews have been somewhat mixed, and even with the scope of the film being praised, that may not be enough to bring people to the theater. It’s also lacking the Oscar talk that’s crucial for a film like this during what is the thick of awards season. Tracking currently has it pegged for a $14.5 million debut.

#3 – Krampus

Coming in third should be Krampus (read our review). The Christmas-themed horror flick grossed $16.2 million in its first three days, surpassing expectations and becoming a surprise success. It clearly doesn’t have widespread appeal to become a crossover sensation, but it’s doing just fine for itself. As Christmas is right around the corner, the premise of this film should keep it relevant, as some moviegoers may be looking for a different kind of holiday film to check out.

krampus movie review adam scott Box Office Prediction: Mockingjay Part 2 vs. In the Heart of the Sea


#4 – Creed

Our pick for fourth is Creed (read our review). The boxing drama continues to perform well, making $14.9 million during its second weekend. It’s been boosted by enthusiastic reviews and awards discussion for Sylvester Stallone’s emotional turn. It should remain one of the top earners at the box office thanks to these factors, since audiences have responded very strongly to it and continue to support it.

#5 – The Good Dinosaur

Rounding out the top five should be The Good Dinosaur (read our review), which has not had the same kind of box office luck Pixar’s other endeavors have had. The family film took a huge 60.9 percent drop after its opening weekend, and is struggling at $77.5 million domestically as of this writing (or, less than Inside Out‘s first three days). The Pixar brand is strong enough to keep it hanging around, but this is far from the norm for the studio.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
  2. The Good Dinosaur
  3. Creed
  4. Krampus
  5. Spectre

Actuals:

  1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
  2. Krampus
  3. The Good Dinosaur
  4. Creed
  5. Spectre

Next Week: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Sisters, Alvin and the Chipmunks 4, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule) and Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)