Last week I wrote that I thought it was a ridiculous theory that the release of the Grand Theft Auto IV video game would hurt Iron Man‘s box office numbers. Instead I wondered whether the release of Speed Racer during the second weekend of the armored avenger’s run would put a dent in Tony Stark’s armor.
Well it looks like he’ll be holding up pretty well against the race car flick as well.
The word on the street is that the Matrix-creators’ nostalgia slash acid-trip version of Speed Racer will be lucky if it cracks the $30MM mark this weekend. It’s also being estimated that Iron Man will probably bring in about $45MM in it’s second weekend, which would mean about a 55% drop from it’s premiere last weekend.
Generally a drop anywhere below 60% is a sign that a movie is getting great word of mouth and has “legs.” Personally I’m predicting about $50MM this weekend for ol’ Shellhead.
Among the movie blogosphere, the consensus for the past weeks and months has been that Speed Racer would make big bucks on it’s opening weekend (I thought that myself until very recently) but it’s looking like it may not do so well after all. Perhaps the all out psychedelic assault on the audience’s senses will be too much for the average moviegoer?
On the other hand you’ve got to balance this against the fact that parents are desperate for movies they can bring their kids to without worrying about inappropriate content: and Speed Racer is rated an innocuous PG.
It’ll be interesting to see how this weekend pans out for both of these mega-movies.