Box Office Prediction: ‘Guardians of the Galaxy’ vs. ‘TMNT’

Published 2 months ago by , Updated August 10th, 2014 at 6:00 am,

Guardians of Galaxy vs. TMNT Box Office Prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy vs. TMNT

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Guardians of the Galaxy‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of August 8 – 10, 2014.

This weekend, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles opens in over 3,700 theaters, Into the Storm debuts in over 3,250 theaters, The Hundred-Foot Journey is released in 2,000 locations, and Step Up All In sees a release of 2,000 theaters. On the limited front, we have What If playing on an unspecified number of screens.

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#1 – Guardians of the Galaxy

Look for last week’s champ, Guardians of the Galaxy (read our review), to finish in the top spot again. Setting a new August record with $94.3 million, Marvel’s space opera transformed from obscure comic book property to viable blockbuster franchise over the span of three days. Receiving some of the best critic reviews in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and winning over moviegoers with its combination of humor and heart, Guardians has generated more than enough positive buzz necessary to sustain a long run.

Granted, with a huge opening (not to mention, the $11 million grossed via Thursday night showings), it’s very much in the realm of possibility that this film becomes the latest to suffer from the infamous second weekend decline and see a sizable drop-off. That said, a front-loaded weekend won’t have much negative impact on Star Lord and friends. None of this week’s new releases are expected to see big business, and as audiences continue to rave about the fun adventure, James Gunn’s foray into the MCU should remain the most popular option.

Chris Pratt Guardians Box Office Prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy vs. TMNT

#2 – Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

Our choice for second is Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. The trailers have made sure to emphasize the involvement of producer Michael Bay, and usually his name is box office gold (see: the Transformers movies). However, he doesn’t appear to be having the same effect with this 1980s pop culture mainstay. From the beginning, the adaptation has had to overcome a storm of negativity and it doesn’t rank high on many moviegoers’ radars. Early tracking indicates a $39 million debut; and while that’s solid, it may not be enough to top Guardians.

It’s also worth mentioning that TMNT is the bizarro Guardians in terms of early word-of-mouth. The first wave of reviews are in, and in stark contrast to the rave write-ups Marvel’s latest received, the heroes in a half shell have seen critics take an indifferent stance. This development could sway audiences away from Donatello and Leonardo and back to Rocket and Groot, hurting the potential intake for TMNT.

teenage mutant ninja turtles 2014 michelangelo Box Office Prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy vs. TMNT

#3 – Into the Storm

Coming in third should be Into the Storm. Trailers and TV spots have sold audiences on the prospect of seeing a disastrous storm play out through horrifying found footage, but there isn’t a ton of excitement surrounding the project. Currently projected to make just $12 million, nobody is expecting this movie to become a major crossover hit.

Not only is found footage starting to play out of favor with moviegoers, the lack of any real star power doesn’t help either. Richard Armitage (The Hobbit) will get top-billing, but his name has not been featured in the advertisements and outside of playing Thorin Oakenshield, he’s not that recognizable. It’s unlikely Into the Storm can hang with the competition.

#4 – Lucy

Our choice for fourth is Lucy (read our review). Luc Besson’s action film has had a moderately successful run, parlaying the popularity of Scarlett Johansson into $79.5 million. Like so many other movies this summer, Lucy saw a notable second weekend decline, slipping 58.4 percent while Guardians took over the universe. Given that the demand is no longer there and two new nationwide releases with visible marketing campaigns are hitting theaters, we think this film will continue to slide down the charts.

Lucy Movie Scarlett Johansson Box Office Prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy vs. TMNT

#5 - Step Up All In

Rounding out the top five should be Step Up All In. In the realm of summer franchises, this is far from the biggest draw, but these films still find a way to dance in the top five opening weekend. The last entry, 2012′s Step Up Revolution debuted in the fourth spot with $11.7 million. This new installment is projected to open in the same range, with tracking at $11 million. There’s no way All In becomes a crossover smash, but it’ll fit a niche for this upcoming weekend.

#10 - The Purge: Anarchy

Our tiebreaker this week is The Purge: Anarchy (read our review), which came in seventh place last week.

Notes

We do not expect The Hundred-Foot Journey to crack the top five this week. Right now, tracking is at $11 million, which puts it in line with Step Up All In, so it could conceivably work its way into that fifth spot. However, the film lacks awareness (Step Up is at least an established series) and doesn’t have many big names to draw people in.

That’s it for this week’s breakdown.

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Screen Rant Underground Logo Header Box Office Prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy vs. TMNT

Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it’s time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.

Opening in theaters this week (Wide):

  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles – 3,700+ theaters
  • Into the Storm – 3,250+ theaters
  • The Hundred-Foot Journey – 2,000 theaters
  • Step Up All In – 2,000 theaters

Opening in theaters this week (Limited):

  • What If – unspecified

Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.

Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Guardians of the Galaxy opening): Sal reports PeterGecko2 won with a score of 11 points.

For the record, here are our picks from last week – along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).

  • #1 – Guardians of the Galaxy (3)
  • #2 – Lucy (3)
  • #3 – Get on Up (3)
  • #4 – Hercules (3)
  • #5 – Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (3)
  • #10 – Transformers: Age of Extinction
  • Final Score: 15 points

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Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)

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TAGS: box office

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  1. No respective person born in the 70′s or 80′s would see the new Turtles movie… Just more Bay garbage…

    • *respectable

      • I’m from the south… It’s respective…

    • ^THIS^

      Just as I stayed away from Transformers 4000, I’m staying away from the new TMNT. I’d rather see Guardians for the 3rd time in IMAX 3D.

      • You paid your hard earned money twice just to watch a crap movie starring a pro wrestler and a cartoon squirrel who curses at people? Must be nice to have that kind of money to waste. DO yourself a favor next time you go to the movies and check out something without Vin Diesel in it.

        • ^^awwwww so cranky!! Sorry Guardians was too highbrow for you :) I’m sure another Woody Allen flick is coming to an art house theater near you. Also, as a guy who was born in the early 80s, I want to love TMNT so bad, but have had no reason to. I’ll just rewatch the original tv series and first two movies instead.

        • lol why are you even on this site?

        • Not a crap movie. Just a crap attitude. You need to drop it. Fed up of annoying attention seeking trolls. Back in your hole… Troll!

    • Saw my first Turtles trailer at Guardians and the turtles themselves look okay then there was a Megan Fox scene, my god her delivery was AWFUL, just horrible.

      Nope, nad-ah I’ll be giving Turtles a wide, wide berth

      Still as long as Bay is making explosathons without SS as producer and he’s still going through his mid-life crisis this talentless person (I’m loathed to call her a lady) will be able to get titillation parts.

      Her opening shot in TF2 shows her worth dubious worth to a movie.

      • Bugger, I’ve doubled up on the worth.

        Only one worth peoples, supposed to be just the one……

      • I miss Bruckheimer as his producer.

    • I’m definitely going to see TMNT… im just gonna pay for guardians again and sneak in when I do >:)

      • That’s the smartest thing to do. If you are going to see TMNT, please pay for Guardians. It deserves the money way more.

  2. Gamora will squish Mwgan Fox, while laughing!

    • Who is “Mwgan Fox”? Is that some kind of 3rd rate Marvel character I haven’t heard of? Mwgan Fox – a talking cartoon Fox from outer space who grabs his junk and curses in order to sell lunchboxes to kids. He’ll probably be in the sequel to that Batista movie.

      • kid, you need a d!ck in your @ss right now to stop you from throwing s*** to Guardians…if you don’t like it, don’t watch it!!

  3. I am sorry but I think TMNT will be a big flop … there is absolutely no buzz on this movie … nobody cares and Mr. Bay’s name no longer means anything … moviegoers are getting tired of see the same movie over and over from Mr. Bay … there will be a biggish opening and the next week it will drop to the bottom …

    • Just wait, the buzz will happen when the end credits roll…

      A spaceship crash lands in the Atlantic ocean, and the TMNT go to investigate. They pry open the doors to the F.L.O.U.D.E.R. and inside, THE LITTLE MERMAID!!!

      The reboot of TLM will be directed, written, and produced by me. It will be about a mermaid who lived on a doomed planet but decided to fly away to find out how to save her planet.

      But on the way, a black hole sucks her into Earths orbit.

      Soon, an evil woman will find some of her mer-alien tech, and use it to make herself an octopus/witch thing bent on destroying the world (she’s mad that she has eight legs) and TLM has to “clean up”.

    • Lol-I doubt that

    • Its’ not like T4 made a billion this year and became the highest grossing in the series.

      • It is trailing behind its predecessors significantly at the domestic box office. It made $300MM in China which has saved its collective bacon from being considered a disappointment. It might become the number one film domestically before The Hunger Games comes out in November, but I doubt it.

        • Okay? Domestic isn’t important. The overall worldwide gross is what determines whether you make back your budget + profits. In other words, determines whether your film flops, which T4 certainly did not.

          • Actually it’s the exact opposite. Most studios don’t factor WW #’s into their decisions. For the most part they only care about Domestic #’s. They usually make around 50% on domestic (give or take 5-10% either way) and they’re lucky if they pull in more than 15% from BO outside North America.

            In reality a movie is lucky if it’s breaks even at the BO. Very few movies actually make a profit at the BO. It’s everything outside the theater that determines if it makes a profit.

          • Wrong, domestic is still important. When you make double
            Your budget in north america you quickly are making profit.
            The big money in china saved t4. Smart comment on who pointed this out.

        • Oh no! A hit movie- which the producers specifically tailored to be popular in the Chinese market -ended up being a huge hit in China! What an embarrassment!

  4. 1. Guardians of the Galaxy
    2. TMNT
    3. Into the Storm
    4. Lucy
    5. Get on Up
    10.A Most Wanted Man

  5. 1. TMNT
    2. GotG
    3. Into the Storm
    4. Step Up All In
    5. Lucy
    10. Planes Fire and Rescue

  6. I think Tmnt might surprise.

    • Me too. The trailers are more frequent, the Pizza Hut commercials and Vanilla Ice macaroni commercials are more frequent. And the last trailer I saw showcased some solid action and nice cgi on the faces.

      I hope it does good.
      Though I won’t be seeing it. Not much of a TMNT after one tried to kill me when I was kid!

  7. I think it will be able to get some 50 million dollars #tmnt

  8. This will be a crucial weekend for guardians chances of being number
    One film of summer and its chances of reaching the coveted 300
    Million dollars domestically. I think to reach figure it has to do at the
    Least 48 million to have chance.

    • I think it will have legs and continue to bring in big numbers. It added another $11.7 million on Monday. Only 2 movies pulled in higher numbers on a Mon/Tues/Wed/Thurs this year and both were on holidays (the Lego Movie and DOFP). For GOTG to pull in a big 11m on a non-Holiday monday is a good sign. Cap2 which basically had the same opening weekend as GOTG only pulled in $6 million on it’s 1st monday. And Cap2 will finish in the 260′s. IF GOTG can match the $41M Caps2 pulled on it’s 2nd weekend I think it can definitely reach the 275-325 range in the end.

  9. Tmnt is gonna crush guardians. Its one of the most popular nostalgic property’s of the 80s mixed with michael bay. It not making money is is impossible. I know a lot of people on this site are optimistic of this bombing but it ain’t gonna happen. Its time for us to suck it up and accept the fact that to the GENERAL PUBLIC michael bay makes good movies that they will pay to see every time. I know its a nasty truth to swallow but the sooner we accept the less angry we will get when it happens again. Brids fly, fish swim, we die and pay taxes and michael bay makes a butt ton of money from crap movies.

    • +1000
      ABOUT GOD FRICKING TIME SOMEONE SAYS THIS! Also, what are brids?

      • Just keep telling yourselves that. Just bear in mind according to RT its running 38% largely due to wait for it….. Terribly underwhelming action sequences. So I wouldn’t hold my breath. Also another thing you can’t ignore, I’m in my early 30′s exactly the demographic they’re shooting for. Guess what neither me nor anyone I know is going to see it. If you don’t believe me check the Facebook feed for anyone over the age of 30 you’re going to find they are less optimistic than you guys. Sorry but without generation X’s nostalgia prompting them to go or take their kids to see it this film isn’t going to do well. As far as the children who might go see this movie go, they moved on from the Turtles to stuff like Spongebob and Digimon a long time ago so you can’t count on them either.

        So no nostalgia + little interest from contemporary kid audiences = flop.

        Don’t hold your breathe waiting for the sequel to be announced fanbois.

        • I’m not a fanboy I hate the movie as much as the next guy im just looking at this a standpoint that no matter how mad the internet gets michael bay and nostalgic property’s make money. I know we all want this movie to be one of the biggest flops of all time and have michael bay never have a hand in flim making again but there has to be a point when we just suck it up and accept the grim realty of things. The new ninja turtles cartoon plus the onslaught of ads nick has been airing for this movie make me think this is gonna make some money. Also digimon hasn’t been relevant sense the late 90s.

        • Scarybottle, please help me with something. My parents want to see tmnt over gotg because their too stubborn to listen to me and reviews. I’m mad because gotg is actually good and the turtle movie is GOING TO BE CRAP.Pretty please give me advice on what I should do.

          • If they’re my age just remind them about Dark of the Moon. That should do the trick….

    • Huge minus for you. You must be michael bay in disguise. No way
      Tmnt beats guardians this weekend. Bay makes good movies, get
      Real. Anyone can direct transformers and it makes a billion.

      • To the GENERAL PUBLIC BAY MAKES GOOD MOVIES. At some point people are gonna have to look at things from the average Americans point of view. plus of anybody else besides michael bay made transformers than it would actually deserves its billions dollars.

        • I’m the general public, and Michael Bay is generally involved with crappy movies. Everyone I know agrees, and that’s dozens and dozens of people. We all love action films, comic book movies, stupid, mindless, fun, and nonsensical crap a lot of the time. But it at least has to seem remotely logical and, more importantly, look awesome while not seeming to want to visually and aurally bash your brains in. Surely some of us are the “general public” about whom you speak, yes? The reason Bay’s films make money is that they are designed to make money. They show you how much money was spent on the screen, they offer a few laughs, and the have more set pieces per minute than other films. It films like you’re getting your money’s worth. He puts the effects front and center, and works with properties/topics that are guaranteed winners. He’s never taken a risky property and over-performed with it–never. That means he’s a shrewd businessman who knows how to manage risk. It doesn’t mean he’s a good storyteller or filmmaker, and it doesn’t mean his films are good except as money makers. Honestly, I’m fine with it since that’s how a lot of other more original and higher quality stuff gets made during the time between Transformers movies. And if Bay is rich, then good for him.

  10. 1- Guardians of the Galaxy
    2- TMNT
    3- Into the Storm
    4- Step Up
    5- Lucy
    10-Hercules

  11. Let’s not forget children. Ninja Turtles is one of the biggest things with kids, right now. The current cartoon is an absolute smash. Not even counting this film, this is the highest point in franchise popularity since the early 90′s. Internet negativity and early reviews have no impact on kids. I’m not saying I disagree with the predictions, necessarily, but this should be considered.

    • Part of the reason that the cartoon is doing so well is because of adults like me (20s-30s) who watch it for the nostalgia. But I’m definitely not going to see the movie. My wife and I are more likely to go see GotG again this weekend than see TMNT.

      The fact that the cartoon is doing well is no indication that the movie will perform similarly well at the box office.

  12. I was looking forward to Into the Storm until I read that it was a found footage flick. Nope. I hate those and I hope they go away forever. I’m so disappointed.

  13. I want GOTG to repeat but I think even though they may leave the theater hating this version of TMNT kids will want to see it.

  14. i predict GotG gets 800m when is said and done.

  15. People don’t watch Transformers because of Michael Bay, they watch because of Transformers. Most people don’t know who the director or other crew/cast of a movie is, they just watch it based on whether the trailer is funny or not.

    • Exactly. All the old folks from the 80′s & 90′s who used to care about directors like Spielberg, Coppola & Scorsese can’t be bothered to care about the filmography of Michael Bay, James Gunn, Edgar Wright etc. The age of the superstars is on its last leg.

      My mother doesn’t know these people. My cousins don’t even know or care to remember these people. It’s easier for us when we have more of an online presence than others, but all the general public knows is that there’s a new Ninja Turtles coming out. If they think it looks good, they go see it. If not, they don’t, and life goes on.

      Movies and celebs/famous people are not that big of a thing to a lot of people I know.

  16. 1. TMNT (I hope not, but I think it will have a strong opening weekend then fall way down in the second)
    2. Guardians of the Galaxy (I want it to be first, but I think it will be a very close second)
    3. Into the Storm (looks like a good DVD rental)
    4. Lucy (another DVD rental)
    5. Step Up All In (garbage)
    10. Planes: Fire and Rescue (more garbage)

  17. 1. Guardians of the Galaxy
    2. TMNT
    3. Into the Storm
    4. Lucy
    5. Step Up All In
    10. Hercules

  18. TMNT hits $100 million.

  19. Some of you need to quit making predictions out of your
    Rear. It takes me about the time it takes a studio to produce
    Four trailers before i make predictions.

  20. 1. guardians of the galaxy
    2. teenage mutant ninja turtles
    3. step up:all in
    4.into the storm
    5.lucy
    10.the purge:anarchy

  21. 1- Guardians of the Galaxy
    2- Into the Storm
    3- Ninja Turtles
    4- Step Up All In
    5- Lucy

    10- The Purge Anarchy

  22. TMNT might surprise, but it won’t beat Guardians. I had been thinking it’ll be very close, but having seen the numbers for Monday and Tuesday this week, Guardians is holding up exceptionally well.

    Captain America 2 opened to the same amount as Guardians, and on its first two days of the week made $6.2 million and $7.0 million, respectively. Guardians, on the other hand, has made $11.7 million and $11.9 million, respectively. That’s 70% higher than Cap’s.

    In its second weekend, Captain America 2 made $41 million. If the weekend follows the same pattern, Guardians could have a second weekend of $69 million. That’s in line with the second weekend of Iron Man 3, which had nearly identical Monday and Tuesday results to Guardians.

    Having a second weekend at $70 million sounds crazy, but the fact of the matter is, Guardians appears to have amazingly strong legs. It’s possible that a lot of this is down to kids being out of school and going in the week instead of the weekend, so it probably won’t reach that $70, but I think it’ll get pretty near.

    All in all, I predict Guardians to have a $60+ million second weekend. TMNT might do well but it can’t beat Guardians.

  23. #1 Guardians of the Galaxy
    #2 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
    #3 Into The Storm
    #4 Lucy
    #5 The Hundred-Foot Journey
    #10 Hercules

  24. #1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
    #2 Guardians of the Galaxy
    #3 Into the Storm
    #4 Lucy
    #5 The Hundred-Foot Journey

    #10 A Most Wanted Man

  25. Alright, Marvel fans and/or movie fans in America. LlSTEN UP. You are all doing a great job with keeping Guardians of the Galaxy at #1 with more than $11.9 million dollars a day even today. So, let’s step it up. Today, let’s get Guardians to gross $12.35 million so GOTG will end up with $139 million grossed so far after it’s first 7 days in theaters. Then, when the weekend comes let’s make sure Guardians beats TMNT for the #1 spot, with Guardians winning at #1 with $48 million dollars ($23 million on Friday, $17 million on Saturday and $8 million on Sunday) and TMNT beaten at #2 with $42 million dollars ($20 million on Friday, $15 million on Saturday, and $7 million on Sunday). SO, C’MON GUYS. DON’T STOP. KEEP GOING. HURRY, BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE. LET’S DO IT. Don’t let Guardians lose to another Michael Bay crap movie. Okay, thanks. ;)

  26. I’m not agreeing with this at all!I predict Ninja Turtles will surpass expectations and SHELL in about 65-70 million and overthrow GOTG. Hopefully it will make enough to garner a sequel. Without Michael Bay getting his greedy little hands on it! Give the franchise over to someone with passion for the franchise and hopefully we’ll get a better movie next time, cuz this one was a COWABUMMER!