Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2’s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of November 27 – 29, 2015.

This weekend, The Good Dinosaur opens in 3,600 theaters, Creed plays in more than 3,350 locations, and Victor Frankenstein debuts in an unspecified number of theaters.

#1 – The Good Dinosaur

Our pick for first is The Good Dinosaur, the latest film from Pixar. The studio scored a massive hit earlier this year when Inside Out scored $356.2 million over the summer (including a record-breaking opening weekend). For 20 years, Pixar has been the go-to source for family entertainment, and they appear to have another winner with this film. The early reviews have been positive, saying that even though the story is conventional, it’s still the kind of beautifully-animated, emotional story moviegoers expect from Pixar. While it’s not expected to open as high as Inside Out did in June, The Good Dinosaur is shaping up to be another success. Projections have it pegged for a $60 million opening weekend.

Pixar’s streak of opening #1 ended with Inside Out, but that was because it ran into the juggernaut Jurassic World, which had just set the all-time opening weekend record. Once again, the animation powerhouse is squaring off against a big blockbuster, but the odds are a little more even. Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 had a soft opening (for the franchise’s standards) and isn’t generating the buzz that the earlier installments did. The Good Dinosaur could have a clear path to the top spot.

good dinosaur movie pixar reviews Box Office Prediction: The Good Dinosaur vs. Creed


#2 – Creed

We believe Creed will come in second. The film is a sequel/spinoff set in the popular Rocky boxing drama franchise. The series has always been successful at the box office, with 2006’s Rocky Balboa making a respectable $70.2 million in its domestic run. Using its association with the Rocky brand in its marketing, Creed is expected to be a hit with audiences as well. Tracking has it set for a $24 million opening weekend, but that figure seems a bit low.

The film’s reviews have been enthusiastic, with some calling it the strongest series entry since the beloved 1976 original. That word-of-mouth could give it an edge over some of the holdovers, since moviegoers will be excited to see something new over the holiday weekend. There’s a very good chance that Creed has cross-generational appeal due to the starring tandem of Michael B. Jordan and Sylvester Stallone. In addition, Stallone has been receiving small rumblings of Oscar buzz for his performance, which will only increase interest. Look for Creed to be one of the weekend’s biggest earners.

#3 – The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2

Look for last week’s champ, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (read our review) to fall to third in its second weekend. The finale to the young adult franchise made over $100 million in its first three days, but it set a new low for the series despite being billed as a must-see event. For whatever reason, Katniss Everdeen’s war against the Capitol lost a bit of its spark with moviegoers as time went on, even though the reception to this film was mostly positive. As The Good Dinosaur and Creed enter theaters with critical acclaim and anticipation, there’s a chance The Hunger Games suffers a second-weekend drop-off that’s steeper than most tentpoles. There may not be much demand for it.

The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 Katniss Box Office Prediction: The Good Dinosaur vs. Creed


#4 – Victor Frankenstein

Coming in fourth should be Victor Frankenstein, a retelling of the classic Frankenstein story. The film has a high-profile cast that includes the likes of James McAvoy, Daniel Radcliffe, and Andrew Scott, but neither that nor the source material should help it much at the box office. The film is scoring dismal early reviews, and the marketing campaign did not exactly generate buzz for the project. It’s currently projected to bring in just $13 million in its opening weekend, well behind its fellow new arrivals Good Dinosaur and Creed.

#5 – Spectre

Rounding out the top five should be Spectre (read our review). The latest James Bond film has held well to this point in its run, finishing in second last week. However, with a couple high-profile releases hitting theaters (and Hunger Games only in its second week), business is going to slow down a bit for 007.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
  2. The Night Before
  3. Spectre
  4. The Peanuts Movie
  5. The Secret in Their Eyes

Actuals:

  1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2
  2. Spectre
  3. The Peanuts Movie
  4. The Night Before
  5. The Secret in Their Eyes

Next Week: The Good Dinosaur, Creed, Krampus, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule) and Box Office [1], [2], [3] (Opening Weekend Projections)