Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Furious 7‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of April 10 – 12, 2015.
This weekend, romantic drama The Longest Ride plays in 3,300 theaters. In limited release, Clouds of Sils Maria debuts in three locations, Desert Dancer plays in 25 theaters, Ex Machina debuts in an unspecified number of theaters, and Lost River premieres in three theaters.
#1 – Furious 7
Look for last week’s champ, Furious 7 (read our review), to repeat in the top spot this weekend. The sequel had a record-breaking performance during its first three days, grossing $147.1 million. This series continues to become more and more popular as time goes on – and given the positive critical reception the film has received, it should continue to draw in large crowds. There are still a few weeks to go until The Avengers: Age of Ultron, so viewers looking for some big blockbuster entertainment have few other options.
Tentpoles like this always see significant decreases in their second weekends, but even if Furious 7 takes a noticeable dive, it won’t damage its commercial prospects too much. That debut was much too big for it to start sliding down the charts now. Since it mainly has the box office to itself, Furious 7 has a wide open road to number one once again.
#2 – Home
Our pick for second is Home (read our review). DreamWorks’ latest animated film hasn’t quite reached the heights of some of their earlier works, but it has still been respectable in the midst of a lull in the family movie market. The film brought in $27 million last weekend and has held well through its two weeks of release. As there’s not much else for this lucrative demographic, Home will most likely have another solid outing.
#3 – The Longest Ride
Coming in third should be this week’s lone wide release, The Longest Ride. The film is an adaptation of a Nicholas Sparks novel; a formula that has delivered hits such as The Notebook ($81 million) and Dear John ($80 million). And even when these movies don’t get to those figures, they still have good openings, as was the case with Safe Haven ($21.4 million debut) and The Lucky One ($22.5 million debut). These films play into a popular niche and The Longest Ride should emerge as a counter-programming choice.
The reason we have it down here at #3 is because of tracking. Though the Sparks brand has a lot of clout, Longest Ride is only projected to take in $16 million during its first three days, and marketing for the film has been somewhat limited. The early reviews have also been very poor, which will hurt casual audience interest in the project, since there are better-received films still currently playing. Throw in the fact that this film doesn’t have a bankable lead, and it should have a hard time hanging with the more visible holdovers. Still, its opening take ought to be solid in its own right.
#4 – Get Hard
Our pick for fourth is Get Hard (read our review). The comedy has not become the runaway hit one might expect with Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart leading the charge, but it has done fine to this point in its theatrical run with $57.2 million. That said, the film has struggled to maintain a strong audience, as its second weekend gross was a whopping 61.2 percent decrease from its opening numbers. Since the box office has been very quiet, it should still be hanging around the top five, but don’t expect that to last long.
#5 – Cinderella
Coming in fifth should be Cinderella (read our review). There isn’t much left to say about the box office prowess of Kenneth Branagh’s latest film, which continues to perform well. The Longest Ride should tap into Cinderella‘s young girl demographic, but the fairy tale reimagining has posted healthy numbers throughout its run – and there are no signs that’s about to change.
Last Week’s Recap
It was a strong week for our predictions. We correctly predicted the top three spots, and if we had only switched around Insurgent and Cinderella, it would have been a perfect mark.
Next Week: Furious 7, Child 44, and more!