Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Home‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of April 3 – 5, 2015.
This weekend, the action sequel Furious 7 is released in more than 3,900 locations.
#1 – Furious 7
The easy pick for the top spot this week is Furious 7, the latest installment in the highly-lucratice Fast and Furious franchise. Though the series hit a rough patch in the mid-to-late 2000s, its box office prowess has been reaffirmed by the performance of the last two films. In 2011, Fast Five brought the brand back in a big way with $209.8 million, and 2013’s Fast & Furious 6 topped that figure with $238.6 million. It seems the decision to shift gears (pun) from street racing culture to vehicle-based action heists was a smart move. Moviegoers find these films ridiculously entertaining.
As such, Furious 7 is expected to maintain the franchise’s hot streak. Early reviews have been very positive (which always helps), with critics saying it delivers all the action you’d expect and a touching tribute to the late Paul Walker at the same time. Tracking currently has this film projected to make $119 million during its first three days, which would be the biggest opening for a 2015 film by far. Audiences are desperate for a big blockbuster, and the box office is equally as desperate for a hit. That combination means it will be smooth riding for Dom Toretto and his crew. The only drama is how much Furious 7 will gross this weekend.
#2 – Home
Look for last week’s champ, Home (read our review), to slide to second this weekend. The latest animated film from DreamWorks took advantage of a barren family marketplace and soared to the top spot in its open in frame with $52.1 million. Even though the reception hasn’t been on par with some of their other releases, tapping into that commercially viable demographic has given it success – and there’s no reason to believe it can’t continue. Furious 7 is the only new wide release, and the target audience for that is a little different than the one for Home. This film should continue to post solid numbers.
#3 – Get Hard
Coming in third should be Get Hard (read our review). The comedy represented one of the strongest debuts for both Kevin Hart and Will Ferrell, grossing $33.8 million in its first three days. That wasn’t enough to clinch the top spot, but it was still a noteworthy debut. Like Home, Get Hard managed to appeal to an underserved corner of the marketplace (comedy fans), and with few other options to choose from, moviegoers looking for a laugh will most likely opt for this R-rated affair. Even if it’s not the next comedy classic, Get Hard has proven to be entertaining enough and should hold well in its second week.
#4 – The Divergent Series: Insurgent
Our pick for fourth is The Divergent Series: Insurgent (read our review), which slipped to third in its second weekend, making $21.5 million. That was a 58.8 percent drop from its opening, which was slightly below predecessor Divergent in terms of domestic gross. With franchise crossover appeal limited, and the hype for the project already starting to die down, Insurgent should continue to see a steady decrease in business – especially with Furious 7 out there for those looking for some action.
#5 – Cinderella
Rounding out the top five should be Cinderella (read our review), which came in fourth last week with $17 million. One of the year’s best box office performers, the fairy tale reimagining has parlayed its strong word-of-mouth into a hefty financial haul. There isn’t much left to say about this one. Cinderella continues to display strong legs – and even as its time in the top five comes to an end, it should still have a healthy total this weekend.
Last Week’s Recap
It wasn’t the strongest week for our predictions. We were burned by Home exceeding its modest expectations and scoring $52 million en route to the top spot (we thought it’d be third). That thew a monkey wrench in our guesses, as Get Hard (our choice for the top spot) was second, and Insurgent placed third. Also, Run All Night fell off by a bit – and instead of rounding out the top five like we said it would, it finished in eighth. Here’s to a better week this time out.
Next Week: Furious 7, The Longest Ride, and more!