Everyone is buzzing about how the release of Grand Theft Auto IV (do people who like that game even know how to interpret Roman numerals? Ok, ok… don’t get all mad) is going to hurt Iron Man box office in it’s second week of release. The word is that GTA 4 is set to bring in $400 million in it’s opening weekend, and that gamers will stay home to play that instead of leaving their darkened bedrooms to go see the awesome Iron Man movie (yes, I’ve seen it).
I don’t buy the logic.
The last time a movie doing poorly was blamed on the launch of a video game the same weekend was when Halo 3 was released on the same weekend as… um… some Ben Stiller movie.
Yeah, right. That’s like blaming cow farts for global warming. Oh, wait…
Anyway, I think that there’s something else that could put a bigger dent in Iron Man’s armor than Grand Theft Auto 4:
Speed Racer
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I know a few guys who are heavy into video games, and do you know what they talk about when they’re not talking about games? Iron Man, that’s what.
Face it, Iron Man is a freaking cool movie, aimed squarely at the typical videogame demographic. Does that make for a conflict? Why should it? Are people not going to tear themselves away from a console for a couple of hours to see one of the three biggest hits of the year?
If they won’t, here are two words of advice: Seek help.
What I think may affect Iron Man’s second week box office receipts is Speed Racer. I haven’t seen it yet and won’t catch an early screening because I want my first look at it to be in Glorious IMAX on opening night.
Why the conflict? Because parents are starved for cool movies they can take their kids to. Starved, I tell ya. And where they might opt to go catch Iron Man next week if they missed it on opening weekend (where I’m now thinking it will probably pull in $80MM ), they’ll now have two choices instead of one. And with Speed Racer being PG, for those with littler ones, and the ability to take them safely (no sex, cartoon violence) to see a movie by the folks who made the uber-cool Matrix – I’ll bet the decision will be a no brainer vs the sometimes intense PG-13 Iron Man.
And even the older kids in the say, 11-13 range may think that the Mach 5 and it’s surrounding LSD-like exploding colors is a better bet than a playboy billionare with a cool set of metal jams.
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23 Comments
Very insightfull thread Vic,
I agree Speed Racer will have a great weekend, however (imo) Iron Man will still make over 300 mil domestic in the first month no prob.
Prob 800 mil worldwide within 3 months.
Same time I predict, Speed Racer will break the record for its opening weekend, 70 million easy. Going on to make at least what Iron Man makes.
And also (IMO) there’s no way in (video game HELL),, the new GTA game,will make 400 mil. its first week domestic!
If GTA is lucky it will make 10 mil domestic at best.
If it does even that it will beat Halo3’s record.
No this is clearly Iron Man and Speed Racers month, with Indy4 capping it the last week of the month into May.
^
And Vic you were dead on about the gap in logic with the GTA crowd. ;-/
correction,
Indy 4 capping off the month of May into June.
Because of the PG rating, I have to agree, SR may hurt IM. I have my tickets and am counting down: T-minus 34 hours and 19 minutes 20 seconds.
Hmmm, Either you had a rather unfortunate typo 790 or your info is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off. Halo 3 made $170 million in the first 24 hours and totaled $300 million opening weekend. Now I’m not really a fan of GTA, but the reviews have been amazing especially compared to Iron Man’s reviews. I think there is serious weight to the argument that GTA will impact Iron Man, it’s the EXACT same core demographic.
Just my 2 cents.
I guess that didn’t work, oh well, i’ll know not to use url tags next time. lol.
Hey Azure, I fixed your tags. You forgot quotes on the second href tag.
Regarding review of GTA 4 compared to Iron Man – you make it sound like Iron Man is getting hammered by critics/average folks and GTA is on a pedestal. Yes, GTA is getting lots of 10/10 reviews but if you check around Iron Man is up around the 9/10 range, which isn’t exactly terrible.
Vic
400mil weekend or 24 hour period?
, because they don’t really reflect the nature of ether mediums.
Azure, let’s forget the numbers for a second.
One is a game, one is a movie.
They are about the same as reading a book or going swiming.
There are a lot of examples and factors I could attempt to go into but (In My Opinion) GTA will have no effect on Iron Man because,,,
#1_The game came out yesterday. Most of the hardcore GTA players have been playing it for the last 24 hrs. There going to want some Visine and a break around friday….
Most of these same GTA players are the same people that see movies like Iron Man opening weekend. (Perfect example why I go during the week. Eechmm).
#2_GTA does have the same core demo with one exception the ladies are also into Iron Man. And they will be coming out geekoids so think twice about the suit.
#3_The economy is tanking right now and spending 60 bucks on a game that will be around forever and will only get cheaper dosnt win, going up against an 8 dollar movie ticket.
Game Over.
Speed Racer HOWEVER poses a very dangerous threat to Iron Man. Much like Iran…. :_/
But seriously Iron Mans gonna be huge. I’m not conerned about its success.
Btw just picked up the UK magazine (Total Film) there’s a SMOKING HOT picture of Christina Ricci on the cover.
Is she the hottest actress right now or is it just the Trixie outfit?
Oh yeah there’s also an article in there something.
Thanks Vic. Actually that’s what I thought, that Iron Man was getting 6’s and 7’s. Guess I needed to check my own facts, although I didn’t state specific numbers for that. A 94% Fresh on RT is pretty darn impressive. I still say GTA will impact it, but how much or even if it does at all we will never know so the point is kind of moot.
Also, 790 we’re not comparing apples and oranges, we’re asking if sales of apples will affect sales of oranges which is perfectly legitimate.
I have no intention at all of seeing Speed Racer. I couldn’t stand the cartoon and the movie looks just as nauseating. That being said, I think it will eat into IM’s numbers in week 2, basically for the reasons stated by Vic. I might go see IM again that weekend because once it’s off the big screen, it won’t be the same!!
May is going to be an awesome month, though. Iron Man, Prince Caspian and Indy…I better go get a personal loan for the tix and the gas money for the theater….
LOL, Azure – I think they’ll be buying both apples AND oranges on that weekend.
Andy… May? Hell, this is turning out to be an awesome YEAR for the kind of movies we love.
Vic
I can’t argue with that, Vic!!!! Believe it or not, I am also looking forward to the new Mummy movie. I thoroughly enjoyed the first 2, despite their shortcomings.
“The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor”, is supposedly a reboot.
Also there are no Mummys this time around. Instead its the first Emperor and his army that have been awoken from a 2000 year curse.
Brendan Fraser is also in “Journey to the center of the Earth 3D”. It looks like he’s playing the same character in both films??
Yeah, Iron Man comes in a troubled time – it will be shred to pieces by GTA IV and Speed Racer, which are just bigger news… And that’s a shame, because I love Iron Man comic book and I hoped that this movie will do sooo well.
We can only hope that IM and Speed are in different enough demographics to support both.
If you look at the stars, the material, how it’s going to be presented, I just can’t venture a guess except to the fact that they’re both aimed at the 30+ crowd who were fans of both.
Then again, this is the typical race to the big screen amongst studios and IM won.
Come on guys Speed racer isn’t really going to efect Iron Man, Indiana Jones will. Iron Man was just as kick @$$ as I thought it would be though. What’s up with Grand Theft Auto though, I played it once and it wasn’t that good. Iron Man should kick whoever that guy is in the game’s @$$!!!!!!
Let me lay it all out for you:
Halo 3 > Grand Theft Auto IV
Iron Man > Grand Theft Auto IV
Indy4 > Grand theft Auto IV
Speed Racer > Grand Theft Auto IV
who here doesn’t agree?
How could a movie called the mummy not have mummies? I just don’t get it.
Ok, I was off on the date that GTA 4 would be released, but I’m still right: GTA apparently had NO effect on Iron Man’s box office. What a load of crap this rumor/story was. I don’t know how people even picked up this idea as even being vaguely valid.
Blaming a videogame release for the failure of a movie at the box office is just one more way of avoiding admitting that you’ve made a movie that sucks.
Vic
Halo 3 > Grand Theft Auto IV
Iron Man > Grand Theft Auto IV
Indy4 > Grand theft Auto IV
Speed Racer > Grand Theft Auto IV
Grand Theft Auto 4 > Battlefield Earth
Grand Theft Auto 4 > Howard the Duck
And I don’t any know anything about Grand Theft Auto.
)
Uh oh! rottentomatoes.com has SR at 38%. Not looking good but it’s still early.
Looks like Iron Man’s second weekend is about $50 million, and Speed Racer’s opening weekend is maybe $20 million. Doesn’t look like SR put much of a dent in Iron Man. But neither did GTA4, which helps prove that The Heartbreak Kid did badly because it sucked, not because of Halo 3.
“which helps prove that The Heartbreak Kid did badly because it sucked, not because of Halo 3.”
EXACTLY!
Vic
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