Box Office Prediction: ‘The Fault in Our Stars’ vs. ‘Edge of Tomorrow’

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Fault in Our Stars vs. Edge of Tomorrow Box Office Prediction: The Fault in Our Stars vs. Edge of Tomorrow

Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Maleficents opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 6 – 8, 2014.

This weekend, sci-fi film Edge of Tomorrow releases in over 3,300 theaters while cancer romantic drama The Fault in Our Stars debuts in 3,000 locations. In limited release, Obvious Child and The Sacrament get unspecified releases and Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon plays in four theaters. Also, indie comedy Chef expands to 1,298 locations.

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#1 – The Fault in Our Stars

Cancer drama The Fault in Our Stars is our choice to take the weekend. Based on the bestselling book, director Josh Boone’s adaptation has acquired a very large following on social media, leading to high box office projections. The combination of positive reviews and an enthusiastic fan base has early tracking in the $36 million range. Similar titles haven’t always fared as well – 2011’s 50/50 only managed to make $35 million in its entire domestic run – but it appears as if the romance angle and the PG-13 rating will make this tale a little more accessible.

Also helping in that department is the presence of star Shailene Woodley. The actress rose to prominence earlier this year with her turn in Divergent ($148.6 million). While she’s not quite a household name yet, she has appeared in a few hits throughout her career and gives the film a familiar face. Given the subject matter, it will also be a great source of counter-programming for those uninterested in typical summer action fare. Despite not having a notable marketing campaign, we think these factors will help The Fault in Our Stars rise to the top.

the fault in our stars trailer woodley Box Office Prediction: The Fault in Our Stars vs. Edge of Tomorrow

#2 – Edge of Tomorrow

Look for Tom Cruise’s latest sci-fi vehicle, Edge of Tomorrowto finish in second during its opening weekend. In addition to an omnipresent advertising push, the movie has been the subject of excellent reviews, with many critics calling it one of the best films of the year. Coupled with sci-fi’s popularity amongst moviegoers and the intriguing “live, die, repeat” Groundhog Day meets Aliens setup, one would think Edge of Tomorrow would be poised for a huge debut. However, the film is not tracking well, as early projections indicate a $28 million opening. There’s a chance that the word-of-mouth could reverse those fortunes, but for now it looks like the film will have an uphill battle in regards to winning the week.

Cruise isn’t exactly the box office titan he used to be and the performance of his recent outings like Oblivion ($89.1 million) and Jack Reacher (over $80 million) indicate as such. For whatever reason, audiences are starting to tire of the star. Perhaps as a way of combating this, trailers are using director Doug Liman’s involvement as a key selling point. Calling the shots on The Bourne Identity ($121.6 million) and Mr. and Mrs. Smith ($186.3 million), he certainly has credibility with action fans. There’s a lot working in this film’s favor, but it looks like The Fault in Our Stars is too big to handle.

#3 – Maleficent

Look for last week’s champ, Maleficent (read our review) to slip to third during its second weekend. Opening with $69.4 million, the Sleeping Beauty reimagining was Angelina Jolie’s biggest debut by a mile and the film received a positive response from moviegoers. Still, its first three days weren’t as lucrative as other Disney films like Alice in Wonderland or Oz: The Great and Powerful, indicating that the demand isn’t as high as other fairy tale reboots. With its PG rating, Maleficent should continue to bring in families, but in regards to the masses, two high profile nationwide releases will most likely steal its thunder, and the infamous second week fall claims another victim.

June 1 Box Office Maleficent Box Office Prediction: The Fault in Our Stars vs. Edge of Tomorrow

#4 – X-Men: Days of Future Past

Coming in fourth should be X-Men: Days of Future Past (read our review). Critics and audiences praised Bryan Singer’s triumphant return to the Marvel universe, but that did not give it strong legs at the box office. Slipping 64.2% in its second weekend, the superhero sequel managed “only” $32.5 million in its second weekend. As Edge of Tomorrow opens with a similar demographic in mind, those numbers will continue to go down.

#5 – A Million Ways to Die in the West

Rounding out the top five should be A Million Ways to Die in the West (read our review). Seth MacFarlane’s second cinematic effort will not be as profitable as his first, since it made just $16.7 million during its opening weekend. That’s lower than other comedy flops, but fans of the genre don’t have much to choose from right now (22 Jump Street is next week), so it might stay on the charts for one more week.

#10 – Million Dollar Arm

Our tiebreaker this week is Million Dollar Arm (read our review), which came in eighth place last week.

That’s it for this week’s breakdown.

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Screen Rant Underground Logo Header Box Office Prediction: The Fault in Our Stars vs. Edge of Tomorrow

Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it’s time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.

Opening in theaters this week (Wide):

  • Edge of Tomorrow – 3,300+ theaters
  • The Fault in Our Stars – 3,000 theaters
  • Chef – 1,298 theaters (expansion)

Opening in theaters this week (Limited):

  • Obvious Child – unspecified
  • The Sacrament – unspecified
  • Supermensch: The Legend of Shep Gordon – 4 theaters

Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.

Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Maleficents opening): Sal reports that The Prince That Was Promised won with a perfect 15.

For the record, here are our picks from last week – along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).

  • #1 – X-Men: Days of Future Past (1)
  • #2 – Maleficent (1)
  • #3 – A Million Ways to Die in the West (3)
  • #4 – Godzilla (3)
  • #5 – Blended (3)
  • #10 – Rio 2
  • Final Score: 11 points

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Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!

Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90

Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)

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TAGS: box office

24 Comments

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  1. 1.Edge of Tomorrow
    2.The Fault in our Stars
    3.Maleficent
    4.X-Men: Days of Future Past
    5.A Million Ways to Die in the West
    10.Million Dollar Arm

  2. Def going to see Edge of Tomorrow!!! Hope it kicks the s*** out of Fault of what the heck ever…

  3. Fault in our Stars could surprise us, but I think this one is going to Edge of Tomorrow.

  4. 1.the fault in our stars.
    2.maleficent
    3.edge of tomorrow
    4.x men days of future past
    5.a million ways to die in the west
    10.million dollar arm

    • Maleficent doesn’t really deserve to be in the top 10… Same for Million Ways to Die in the West…

      Note I said deserve, not saying they won’t be…

  5. 1. Edge of Tomorrow
    2. The Fault in our Stars
    3. Maleficent
    4. X-Men: Days of Future Past
    5. Neighbors
    10. Amazing Spider-man 2

  6. 1. Edge of Tomorrow (I hope this comes first, I really want to see it)
    2. Maleficent
    3. The Fault in our Stars
    4. X-Men: Days of Future Past (best x-men film ever)
    5. A Million Ways to Die in the West (I want to watch this)
    10. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (much better than some people say)

  7. Of course TFIOS will be the first..In the long run,I believe EoT will have the last laugh…
    1.TFIOS
    2.EoT
    3.Maleficient
    4.Xmen:DOFP
    5.Million Ways to die in the West

  8. TFIOS will take this week for sure. There is a massive community behind TFIOS, as it was written by half of the prominent vloggers – The vlogbrothers.

    The book has been received very well, and there will be a mass of people in the ‘Nerdfighter’ community that will go and watch it.

  9. Edge of Tomorrow could be number 1 though I expect Maleficent to take the top spot for a second week.

    I say that because despite reviews the trailers are looking very much like the kind of fare Cruise has served up before (as SR has pointed out already). I like him but some of his recent stuff has not been must see. I think the masses will be wary going in and wait for sources closer to themselves to give positive feedback.

    That and some people will never get past him committing the unforgivable sin of jumping over a couch.

    Maleficent is more kid friendly too so I think the broader market will see it at number 1 again.

    The Fault In Our Stars at number 3.

  10. I think that for this weekend:

    1) Maleficent (great movie, Angelina Jolie was awesome)35-40m
    2) Fault in our Stars 26-30m
    3) Edge of Tomorrow ( it reminds me of Oblivion, ELISUM, District 8 and not original at all) 18-20m
    4) x-men Days of futures past 11-13m

    • @jeffrey

      WOW, you are not too much of a movie buff if those are the movies you think of. Were you born within the last 10 years or something? LOL. If anything, the movie is a mix of Groundhog Day, Aliens, and Starship Troopers. But actually, yes, it’s actually pretty original. It has small elements and aspects from those movies, but the plot is definitely its own. It literally has nothing Oblivion about it other than Tom Cruise, and I have no clue how those other two movies you listed even relate to it in the slightest…

      But I like I how you use your own opinions on the movies for your box office prediction. I guess hoping every one else would share your opinion is really important to you??

  11. 1. Edge of Tomorrow
    2. The Fault in our Stars
    3. Maleficent
    4. X-Men: DOFP
    5. A Million Ways to Die in the West
    10. The Amazing Spider-Man 2

  12. 1) The Fault in Our Stars
    2) Maleficent
    3) Edge of Tomorrow
    4) X-Men: DOFP
    5) A Million Ways to Die in The West
    10) The Amazing Spider-Man 2

    TFIOS could go for 50m+, which will make this the fourth weekend in a row featuring a 50m+ debut. And the fifth in a row with a 49m+ debut. Seeing as how HTTYD2 or 22JS will likely break that mark as well, 2014 will, after a slow may summer start, at least break some sort of record.

    Maleficent’s strong A+ cinemascore and lack of children’s movies competition, will likely give it a slow drop. Although YA female’s and adult women’s without children will likely pass on this story for TFIOS. I’d still give it the edge over Edge of Tomorrow, but not by much.

    Also, after featuring much much stronger drops than Million Dollar Arm, I think TASM2 will be the one falling to the 10th place.

  13. I agree, saw it in a screening and it is a great movie. I hope it gets number 1, it’ll be a shame if it doesn’t. Nothing against “The Fault in Our Stars” but I actually think Edge of Tomorrow is still a more unique film even with its Groundhog Day meets Aliens feel. The love story with cancer thing actually has been done MANY times before… And honestly, it deserves to keep being a topic because it’s important, but I just don’t see it as a “theater” movie. I mean, do you really need a 50 foot screen and a 20,000 watt sound system to watch that movie? It would be a Netflix or Redbox movie for me…

    Edge of Tomorrow, on the other hand, is definitely a movie best experienced on a huge IMAX screen and with the volume cranked all the way up.

    And I am loving this new trend in female characters that have a strong character and a sharp tongue. I fell in love with Emily Blunt’s character the first scene she was in, lol.

  14. Oh, and Dave, do you agree that the VERY LAST scene, don’t want to describe it to not spoil it for anyone, but the literal last 10 seconds before the screen goes black, was the best scene ever?? Maybe I’m the only one, but to me, that was the absolute best way to end that movie…

  15. We need a spoiler discussion thread for that movie, I want to talk about it, lol.

  16. I definitely agree that it’s more of an at home experience, whereas EoT should be seen in a theatre. I hope it gets #1, especially with all the good reviews. I hate to see a film like that lose money.

  17. First of all agree, one of the best films of this summer and maybe one of the best summer films of all time.
    I have a question though that I hope someone will answer here it will not ruin anything except 2 jokes maybe so …ummm..
    (EoT Joke Spoiler Alert!!)

    I live in a small country and in the very begging in the News clips they used our own local news for it. (It was very surprising and made a good laugh for everybody in the theater). Plus when he is trying the suit for the first time and it askes him what language the first option its my country language. and I’m pretty sure that they embedded my country’s flag behind the General at one point.
    So I guess the question is did they do it everywhere or was it something local here???

    The reason I ask this is because I wonder if this together with CA:TWS switching lists between countries is the first step for customized film per country. Any thoughts?

  18. That last few secondw almost ruined the movie for me. Nothing spoilery about it, to just mention it, I think.

  19. You sir have just persuaded me to go watch edge of tomorrow, I was on the fence since it seemed interesting but didn’t feel like using money but screw it. Gots to see this.

  20. Um, I have no idea, for several reasons, I don’t know what country you’re from, I don’t remember what flags were in the room in the clips with the General, and I don’t remember what country the first news clips were from.

  21. @Lionel

    I hope you enjoy it. I just saw it again today in another screening. Had a screening today for The Purge: Anarchy, which I haven’t yet seen, but decided to skip it to watch EOT again, lol. Well worth it, what a great movie. :-)

  22. @St jack

    It definitely is a spoiler… So don’t say anything… I don’t want to ruin it for anyone.

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