The Expanse season 5 has only scratched the surface of how much trouble Earth is in after being struck by asteroids. Based on the novels by James S.A. Corey, The Expanse is renowned for its realistic approach to sci-fi, and tangible depiction of humanity's future. As a direct result of this ethos, Earth is no sleek and silvery utopia of round buildings and transport tubes. Ravaged by environmental disaster and overpopulation, humanity's home is far from the most attractive locale in the Sol system. Around half of its citizens live on welfare, many others are undocumented, and the gap between rich and poor is gargantuan, with the upper classes enjoying opulence and luxury while regular folk scrap to survive.

With Earth in such a dire position already, the last thing the blue planet needed was for a disgruntled terrorist from the outer planets to start throwing asteroids around, but Marco Inaros didn't get that memo. Earth and the Belt have historically been at odds, but began to build bridges thanks to the efforts of the Rocinainte crew, Fred Johnson and others. As an extremist member of the OPA, Marco believes co-existence is impossible, and conspires with Martian rebels to attack Earth with stealth-equipped rocks, three of which hit their target. This daring move has a devastating impact on the planet, but The Expanse has yet to fully explore the extent of Earth's woes both in the immediate aftermath, and in the near future.

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A scientific type in The Expanse season 5's third episode estimates the impact of each asteroid between 1 and 4 megatons, with rocks striking in North America, South Asia and Dakar in Africa. A news report confirms the African impact between 200-300 kilotons, which triggers power outages and tsunamis. The second incident in Philadelphia knocks out communications as far as New York, and flooding begins on the east coast following shock wave damage to structures and buildings. As evacuation to relief centers starts, care homes euthanize those too weak to leave. The death toll reaches millions, and includes half of the UN's leadership.

Baltimore in The Expanse

Evidently, the situation on Earth is critical, but The Expanse is deliberately obscuring the severity of the plight. In the short-term, locating resources will be the most pressing issue. Earth was already struggling in this aspect, but many thousands will now find themselves unemployed after their places of work were blasted away, adding to the high percentage of citizens in need of government relief. Compounding the misery, some of Earth's food and raw materials are sourced from The Belt - a bone of contention among the Outers, but a vital trade route for the blue planet. Now that Marco Inaros has declared war, those supplies could quickly be cut off. Earth faces a worrying crisis of food, housing and medicine, but has even less access to those resources than they did before the Free Navy's attack.

In the mid to long-term, humans will likely turn to tribalism to survive. This process has already started in The Expanse season 5, with Erich stockpiling as much grub as possible, and a doomsday prepper taking refuge in his forest hut. Mass immigration to Europe and other unaffected areas would spread the crisis across the entire planet, causing a knock-on effect for parts of the planet not directly hit by asteroids. As civilization degrades, the UN will need to pour all of their financial muscle into restoring stability - unfortunately, their priority will likely be waging war against Marco Inaros, meaning the population of Earth could be forced to fend for themselves. Thinking longer term, a class divide could emerge, where the rich permanently evacuate to Luna, and Earth is left to fall into a disorganized ruin.

Currently in The Expanse season 5, the effects of Marco's devastating assault are only being seen through the eyes of Amos and Clarissa, or via brief status reports given to Avasarala. Once the dust settles and the Sol system recovers from the immediate shock of the Free Navy's opening gambit, the true extremity of Earth's predicament will become clear, and by then, the death toll could easily rise into the tens of millions.

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