Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Don’t Breathe‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of August September 2 – 4, 2016.

This weekend, Morgan opens in 2,000 theaters and The Light Between Oceans plays in 1,500 locations.

#1 – Don’t Breathe

Look for last week’s champ Don’t Breathe (read our review) to repeat in the top spot during its second weekend. The horror film got off to an impressive start in its first three days by grossing $26.4 million and it has been leading the daily charts during the week. It has been able to parlay its strong critical reaction and audience response into a nice box office haul, and there’s little reason to think it will fall off. This is typically a slow time at the movies, and the new releases are arriving with little fan fare. Don’t Breathe has a clear path to the number one position again.

Stephen Lang in Dont Breathe1 Box Office Prediction: Morgan vs. Dont Breathe

#2 – Suicide Squad

Our pick for second once again is Suicide Squad (read our review), which came in this spot last week. Its time at the top of the box office may be over, but with few major studio tentpoles currently playing, the latest installment in the DC Extended Universe remains the blockbuster of choice for certain audiences. It should continue to post decent numbers, taking advantage of the limited competition.

#3 – Kubo and the Two Strings

Coming in third should be Kubo and the Two Strings (read our review). The latest from Laika hasn’t grossed high numbers, but the positive word-of-mouth has encouraged viewers to check it out. It only fell 37.8 percent in its second weekend last week, indicating that it has relatively nice legs.

Kubo and the Two Strings1 Box Office Prediction: Morgan vs. Dont Breathe

#4 – Morgan

We expect Morgan to open in fourth. The sci-fi/horror hybrid sports an intriguing premise (and a script that was on the Black List), but that doesn’t appear to be helping its commercial prospects much. Projections have it pegged for just $6.9 million in its first three days, which is very low. Morgan lacks a recognizable box office draw, and there’s little buzz surrounding the project. Fox ever forewent Thursday night preview screenings for the film, indicating that demand could be very low. Genre fans may be inclined to check it out, but it doesn’t have much appeal.

#5 – The Light Between Oceans

Rounding out the top five should be The Light Between Oceans, a new drama from director Derek Cianfrance, who is best known for Blue Valentine. This film is obviously not set up as a commercial play, but the pairing of Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander should draw the interest of viewers looking for a reprieve from the big summer movies. Those two leads are famous faces that should give this project a boost in awareness. Additionally, the reviews have been mostly positive, with the performances being praised. Tracking indicates an opening weekend of $5.9 million.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Predictions:

  1. Don’t Breathe
  2. Suicide Squad
  3. War Dogs
  4. Kubo and the Two Strings
  5. Ben-Hur

Actuals:

  1. Don’t Breathe
  2. Suicide Squad
  3. Kubo and the Two Strings
  4. Sausage Party
  5. Mechanic: Resurrection

Next Week: Sully, The Disappointments Room, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office Opening Weekend Projections)

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