Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Hail, Caesar‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of February 12 – 14, 2016.

This weekend, Deadpool plays in 3,558 theaters, How to Be Single debuts in 3,342 locations, and Zoolander 2 opens in 3,394 theaters. In limited release, Fitoor debuts in 147 locations and Where to Invade Next plays in 300 theaters.

#1 – Deadpool

Easily coming in first this weekend should be Deadpool, the new superhero movie that finally does the fan-favorite Merc with a Mouth justice on the big screen. The film has benefitted from a genius marketing campaign that’s sold audiences on the property’s irreverent (and adult) sense of humor, illustrating how this is a project that can appeal to casual moviegoers as well as the die-hard fans. And early reviews suggest that the film lives up to the hype. A majority of the reactions have been positive, and Deadpool was recently given the coveted Certified Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

As such, the film should be well on its way to box office gold. Early tracking indicates a $93 million debut, which would be a new record for the month of February. Any way you look at it, Deadpool is poised to come out on top, making it no surprise that Fox has already green lit the sequel. They’re confident they have a hit on their hands and now they just have to see how high the film can go.

Deadpool is a Proof of Concept for Low Budget Fan Service CBMs Box Office Prediction: Deadpool vs. Zoolander 2


#2 – Zoolander 2

Our choice for second is Zoolander 2, a sequel to 2001 comedy. Though the original wasn’t exactly a box office smash ($45.1 million domestic total), it gained cult status over time and reached a wider audience. Now, there are a number of viewers looking forward to seeing the exploits of models Derek Zoolander and Hansel continue. Zoolander 2 was named one of the 10 most anticipated films of the year by voters in a Fandango poll, so there’s definitely interest. Unfortunately, the followup is no match for Deadpool and should be a distant #2.

Early reviews have been mostly negative, with many pundits saying it isn’t particularly funny and incoherent, relying more on celebrity cameos than actual jokes. In a weekend when Deadpool – which is being praised for its humor – is coming out, that’s a death blow. It doesn’t matter how beloved the original Zoolander is, few things can contend with a critically acclaimed superhero movie these days. Casual audiences could easily pass this one by and go for something else. Projections peg Zoolander 2 for a $22 million opening, which is higher than the first, but not really enough to make it a crossover hit.

#3 – How to Be Single

Coming in third should be the new romantic comedy How to be Single. The film sports a fairly recognizable cast, headlined by Dakota Johnson and Rebel Wilson, who have starred in their fair share of box office hits recently. Johnson was the leading lady of Fifty Shades of Grey last year ($166.1 million), and Wilson is well-known for her role in the Pitch Perfect films (the second of which grossed $184.2 million). While it’s not really designed to be a blockbuster hit, How to be Single should emerge as a solid counter programming option and post respectable numbers in its debut. Tracking suggests $19 million in the first three days.

how to be single rebel wilson leslie mann dakota johnson Box Office Prediction: Deadpool vs. Zoolander 2


#4 – Kung Fu Panda 3

Our pick for fourth is Kung Fu Panda 3 (read our review), which won last weekend with $21.2 million. The latest project from DreamWorks Animation is a family film, and it’s typically smart to be in their favor. That said, Kung Fu Panda 3 has been out in theaters for a while, and is setting new lows for the franchise. There isn’t much demand for it now, so even though it’s one of the few movies targeted at that demographic, it’ll be overshadowed by the new arrivals.

#5 – Hail, Caesar!

Rounding out the top five should be Hail, Caesar! (read our review). The film finished in second during its opening weekend, but now it’s going to take a fall down the charts. Joel and Ethan Coen’s satirical look at 1950s Hollywood doesn’t have much appeal to general audiences. Despite mostly positive reviews, the film scored negative word-of-mouth by viewers, and it only made $11.3 million in its first three days. It’s hard to see how it can turn it around, especially with all the movies coming out on Friday.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. Kung Fu Panda 3
  2. Hail, Caesar!
  3. Pride Prejudice and Zombies
  4. The Revenant
  5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Actuals:

  1. Kung Fu Panda 3
  2. Hail, Caesar!
  3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  4. The Revenant
  5. The Choice

Next Week: Deadpool, Race, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office [1] [2] [3] (Opening Weekend Projections)