Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Deadpool‘s opening weekend and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of February 19 – 21, 2016.

This weekend, Race opens in 2,369 theaters, Risen plays in 2,915 theaters, and The Witch debuts in 1,800 locations.

#1 – Deadpool

Coming in first once again should be Deadpool (read our review), which broke various records during its opening weekend last week. The film is off to a rousing start, grossing $172.3 million domestically as of this writing. In addition, Deadpool has benefitted from strong word of mouth, winning over audiences and critics alike. It is easily the most high profile of the movies playing in theaters and has very little competition in its way. While it will be interesting to see how strong Deadpool‘s hold is, there’s no denying that it’s popular enough to maintain the top spot.

deadpool movie tv spots clips year monkey Box Office Prediction: Deadpool vs. Race


#2 – Kung Fu Panda 3

Our choice for second is Kung Fu Panda 3 (read our review), which came in this spot last week with $19.7 million. While the third installment hasn’t been as commercially successful as its predecessors, it’s still one of the few options available for the coveted family demographic, which is why it’s still hanging around. It only saw a 7 percent drop from its second to third weekend gross, so there’s still some interest in seeing it.

#3 – Race

Coming in third should be the Jesse Owens biopic Race. The story of the famous track and field star is an interesting one, but there’s some question regarding how much appeal it has to a mainstream audience. It’s entering theaters with very little buzz, as projections have it pegged for just an $8.3 million opening weekend. Early reviews have been generally positive, but Race is not earning nearly enough acclaim to turn many heads. It’s also hampered by the lack of big names in the cast. SNL alum Jason Sudeikis is perhaps its biggest star, but that won’t be enough to bring in large crowds. Race should do fine on its own, but it won’t be a crossover hit.

Stephan James Race interview Box Office Prediction: Deadpool vs. Race


#4 – How to Be Single

Our pick for fourth is How to Be Single (read our review). The romantic comedy opened in third place last week with $17.8 million. Business will go down slightly in its second weekend, but it debuted big enough that any fall should be too drastic at this juncture. It’s true that the film did not get the most favorable reviews, however, since many of this week’s new arrivals are coming in under the radar, it’s possible that How to Be Single sticks around.

#5 – Risen

Rounding out the top five should be the religious drama Risen. It has to overcome a minimal marketing campaign and a relatively low-key cast, but faith based movies have found success at the box office before. Though it probably won’t be able to break out of its niche appeal, Risen could post respectable numbers in its opening. Estimates suggest something in the $8.5 million range. That is slightly higher than Race, but the Owens biopic has been more visible with TV spots recently.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  1. Deadpool
  2. Zoolander 2
  3. How to Be Single
  4. Kung Fu Panda 3
  5. Hail, Caesar!

Actuals:

  1. Deadpool
  2. Kung Fu Panda 3
  3. How to Be Single
  4. Zoolander 2
  5. The Revenant

Next Week: Eddie the EagleGods of Egypt, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office [1] [2] (Opening Weekend Projections)