Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend – in collaboration with the Screen Rant Underground podcast Box Office Battle – to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Tammy‘s opening weekend – and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our previous picks measured up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge that our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of July 11 – 13, 2014.
This weekend, sci-fi sequel Dawn of the Planet of the Apes debuts in 3,800 theaters. On the limited front, Boyhood and Land Ho! both get unspecified releases.
#1 – Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Coming in first this week should be Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. In 2011, Fox rebooted this classic sci-fi property to surprisingly successful results. Not only did Rise of the Planet of the Apes score big at the box office ($176.7 million domestic total), it was also well received by critics. With audience goodwill left over from the first installment and the follow-up generating strong reviews to this point, anticipation for the sequel is through the roof. Dawn is projected to open in the $68 million range, a noticeable increase from the $54.8 million Rise made in its first three days.
While the franchise has gone through a director change (Matt Reeves takes over for Rupert Wyatt) and has drafted a new human cast, this should not have any negative impact on the film’s numbers. Newcomers Jason Clarke and Gary Oldman are both fan-favorites; Clarke’s star is rising after many supporting roles and Oldman has lent his talents to blockbuster films several times before. Also, the real main attraction here is mo-cap maestro Andy Serkis, who brings series protagonist Caesar to life once more. People will line up just to see him. When you add in the 3D factor, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is set for a big debut.
#2 – Tammy
Our choice for second is Tammy (read our review). The new comedy starring Melissa McCarthy opened softer than her previous efforts at $21.5 million. Still, she’s well liked amongst moviegoers, meaning that audiences could continue to support her for another week. The arrival of Planet of the Apes will take a lot of business away from Transformers, so even though there was a big gap between weekend grosses last week, Tammy could surpass Optimus due to the robots in disguise being in limited demand.
#3 – Transformers: Age of Extinction
Look for last week’s champ, Transformers: Age of Extinction (read our review), to fall to third. Despite repeating, Michael Bay’s latest took a massive 63 percent hit during its second weekend, which is on par with the decreases several other summer releases have seen. When compared to previous entries, Age of Extinction is also behind by a wide margin. Through 10 days, it has grossed $175.3 million, while Dark of the Moon made $228.8 million at the same point in release. This hints at a sense of franchise fatigue plaguing the Transformers films. With a better-received sci-fi action film going after a similar demographic, Age of Extinction’s numbers will continue to plummet.
#4 – 22 Jump Street
Our pick for fourth is 22 Jump Street (read our review). The comedy sequel has been one of the season’s best holds, finishing in third place last week with an additional $9.8 million. With a new wide release taking away most business, the film will continue to slide down the charts. However, its strong performance indicates that comedy fans aren’t through with Schmidt and Jenko just yet.
#5 – How to Train Your Dragon 2
Rounding out the top five could be How to Train Your Dragon 2 (read our review). The animated movie never connected as well as originally thought, but it’s hung in there, making $140.2 million through four weeks. It finished about $1 million behind Deliver Us from Evil last week ($9.7 million to $8.9 million), but horror movies typically see a large drop-off after opening weekend. We expect the police procedural/horror hybrid to take a big dive in its second week, opening the door for DreamWorks’ latest to finish in the top five again. As one of the only family films currently playing, it still has a corner on a key demographic.
#10 – Jersey Boys
That’s it for this week’s breakdown.
Now, if you want to participate in the weekly Box Office Battle, it’s time for you to make your picks! In the comments section below, post what you think will be the top five movies this weekend at the box office as well as your own number ten tiebreaker. Then, tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the results and find out who won.
Opening in theaters this week (Wide):
- Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – 3,800 theaters
Opening in theaters this week (Limited):
- Boyhood – unspecified
- Land Ho! – unspecified
Box Office Battle Scoring Rules: You get three (3) points for each direct match with the weekend actuals and one (1) point for each movie placed within one spot of the exact position. A perfect score is 15 points. Tie-breakers are not worth any points but, in the event of a tie, the person with a tie-breaker selection closest to the number 10 spot will be awarded the win.
Last Week’s Official Box Office Battle Reader Winner (Tammy‘s opening): Sal reports that there was a two-way tie between PeterGecko and memo grajeda, who both scored 9 points and had the closest tiebreaker.
For the record, here are our picks from last week – along with the corresponding amount of points we received for each pick (listed in parenthesis).
- #1 – Transformers: Age of Extinction (3)
- #2 – Tammy (3)
- #3 – Deliver us from Evil (1)
- #4 – 22 Jump Street (1)
- #5 – How to Train Your Dragon 2 (3)
- #10 – The Fault in our Stars
- Final Score: 11 points
Make sure to check back later this week for the official box office results and tune into the Screen Rant Underground podcast for the weekly winners!
Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisAgar90
Source: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule)