Call me a naysayer, the devil’s advocate or whatever.
There’s a major case of online movie website hysteria sweeping the internet. Everyone is falling all over themselves talking about how The Dark Knight is going to break box office records. A month ago we wrote that we believed that The Dark Knight would most likely gross about $80 million on its opening weekend and we took more than a little heat for it. Of course that was before the Warner Bros. marketing machine went into warp-overdrive over the last couple of weeks.
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Now the debate seems to be whether it will bring in “only” $130MM or whether it will beat the record held by Spider-Man 3: a $151 million opening weekend.
I’m no box office pundit and believe me, I want this film to do great. I’ve seen it (review coming late Thursday) and it’s not like any superhero movie that’s come before it. If you think that Hellboy or Spider-Man 3 are dark, you’ve got a whole ‘nother level of pitch black headed your way with The Dark Knight.
There are people who know far more than I do who are predicting $130 million this weekend. But gasoline is being poured on the box office prediction fire by online ticket site MovieTickets.com, which is sending out all kinds of pre-sales stats saying the movie is outselling Spider-Man 3 two to one at this point in the sales cycle. They also released today the fact that 700 performances of The Dark Knight have sold out already.
Wow! 700 performances! That’s a lot, right?
Well, maybe… maybe not.
According to Fandango.com, about 40% of people they surveyed plan on watching the film in IMAX and about 40% plan on seeing the film at a Thursday night midnight screening. Do you know how many IMAX theaters across the entire country will be showing The Dark Knight?
Ninety-four. Yup, that’s 94 IMAX theaters in the entire United States.
I’ll bet at least half of those sold out performances are IMAX showings. IMAX is finally starting to be recognized more widely as an awesome format for movies and people want to see this hype-laden blockbuster in that format if possible. The buzz is on about how those theaters are adding showings all through the night - now you can see why.
Across all theaters, The Dark Knight is showing on 1500 screens, but are regular theaters having to add 3AM showings? If anyone has any figures on this, please add them below. I’m thinking all this pre-sale hysteria is:
- People who can’t wait and want to see it first.
- People who want to see it in IMAX know there’s a limited number of seats.
- People who due to the first two items are afraid it WILL sell out completely this weekend and they’ll have to wait to see the movie.
Yes, it’s an amazing film - no doubt about it, but it’s NOT your typical superhero movie. I’m not saying that’s BAD, I’m just saying I don’t know how it will “play in Peoria.” This film is closer in spirit to New York City cop/crime dramas like The Departed than it is to Spider-Man. Does the “Batman crowd” turn out to see crime dramas? I don’t know.
And I’m going to refer back to the previous post regarding the power of parents bringing kids to movies: With this one it ain’t gonna happen (or at least, it shouldn’t - this movie really pushes PG-13 right past the line into an R-rating IMHO). So it’s up to the single folks to push this one into the stratosphere. Then again, Hancock did much better than I expected, so what do I know? 
The Dark Knight opens on July 18 (as if you didn’t know).
Source: MarketWatch.com
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49 Comments
I have no idea on this one…I think it’s playing in over 4300 theaters and with the Heath Ledger factor, the buzz being generated I think 90-110 million is not out of the question..It will be interesting to see if its overall box office drops from Fridays debut to Saturday…I think it will average 20,000-25,000 per theater which would give it 90-110 million debut…I hope it does very well and we see Nolan finish the trilogy in the next three or four years….Should be an interesting weekend to say the least..
I read on another thread that 790 is predicting a 160+ million opening weekend…I would like to see that but it’s too dark for that..Spiderman 3 was dark but still in a kid friendly way…This is Godfather or Departed dark and that is not kid friendly…This is a really difficult call..Box Office Guru is pretty good at these predictions and I will use their prediction as my guide…Hai Yah Daniel San!!
i think 130 is a little much,
im sure alot of older folk will wait a week or two, and alot of parents wont take their little ones to see this seeing how ever single news radio report is saying how dark it is.
200 million …nuff said
Vic
I may have to wait until next week–there’s only one good IMAX theater in my area (the other is too far away and is built more for the documentaries than movies–Spidey 3 looked bad), and it’s sold out.
What I hated with Batman Begins was someone ruined that final moment for me, because I waited too long to see it. Sheesh, that sucked! Same person ruined a few other movies for other people. JERK! I hope TDK doesn’t get ruined by overzealous fanboys.
heath
Why do they always express this in money, money can’t compare to history… ticketprices are always going to get higher. So how about expressing it in people that actually have seen this movie in it’s opening weekend?
With that rule, how many people does 100million stand for nowadays? and how much did it with Spiderman 3, or Titanic, or any other epic box-office hit?
Anyway, too bad the film is going to arrive a week later in here (Belgium), but still planning to see this when it hits the white screen!
greets
I know of a Drive Inn that’s playing “Dark knight”, “Incredible Hulk”, and “Iron Man” all the same night all on one screen! The local IMAX hasn’t yet added more showings Friday morning beyond a single 12:01am showing.
The big comparison is Spider-Man 3, but that only came out last year.
Vic
This my be my last posting under the nowhereman monicker, (unless I can keep it while obtaining a new email address… I dunno…)
Anyhow,I probably won’t get a chance to see this long awaited (and over-hyped) event till sometime in August due to the facts that I’m slammed with my work right now and balancing that with relocating (AAAUUUGH!!! is there anybody out there that hates moving as much as I do???) I get my current abode sufficiently “fung shueyed”, and then he who signs my checks drops the dreadded, “We’re going to give you more responsibility” bomb, and like uncle willie, I’m on the road again!Maybe I should just get it over with and move to Gotham and purchase a stately Wayne like abode and retire into anonimity. Ummm, wait a minute…I’m pretty much anonymous right now…cool! Half way there!
But enough of my yakkin’ lets get on with the show!
Sadly enough, I think plenty of youngsters will drive their folks bonkers if not allowed to go see this movie despite the warnings given here and elsewhere against doing so. Stack that on top of the die hard bat-fans, the morbidly curious, and the “I gotta see this first” crowd, PLUS the “I’m gonna see it again tommorow if it kills me ” gang, and I believe that this film could come close to 300 mil over the weekend. That may seem like an outrageous figure to most of you, but remember, the viral hype has been building steadily for over a year and the movie will, more than likely deliver.
Save some pop-corn for your truely, and keep the faith
M.W.L.
$300 million opening weekend…wow…I don’t even know what to say to that. You’d be talking well over $500 million box office total after it’s run then…nah
I’m thinking something around $100-120 million would be a big number but very possible. I just don’t see it beating 151 mill by Spidey 3. Would be awesome, don’t get me wrong, but don’t see it
If this movie does 300 million over the weekend I will dance naked in Los Angeles at 3am.
There are not that many theatres in america.
EXCELLENT points Vic!
Especially about the “Kiddie” factor .
Both Iron Man And Spider-Man could be marketed to small children.
TDK cant be.
Because of all the hype it may not have an impact this weekend .
But next weekend the non family nature of this film will have a HUGE impact .
we also dont really know How Heath ledgers death figures into this.
dies the public think it is too soon?
there are 4 box office possiblities ,
1 55-85 million
2 103-115 million
3 130 - 200 million or higher .
4 and now the longshot NOBODY expects ,
47-50 million .
And if it does happen that way it probably still will make 200 million
And have HUGE international box office and DVD sales just as BB did .
And yes, there would still be a sequel.
and the LAST thing we want is for it to make 300 million.
WB would press Nolan to have big more “Bankable” stars Robin Williams and the like,
more crazy bat gadgets “We have to sell more TOYS!”( and product placement.) and facing a possible repeat of Batman & Robin,
Nolan would leave as a result.
Okay,okay…spank me for the 300 mil thingie. I’m not the most astute when trying to figure out the movie biz, (obviously or one of my screenplays would be drawing interest…lol)
But one fact that no one has touched on is floating out there, and baby, it’s a doozy!
I do work in the entertainment industry (Live theater and concerts), have been for almost thirty years now, and you know what?
Every time this country is teetering on the edge of a recession or (GASP) depression, the entertainment industry BOOMS! I’m not kidding gang, check the (relative) income for the entertainment industry during the depression, the 1st gas crisis in the 70’s, and over the last four years of the current regime’s occupation of the white house.
Maybe it’s because these momentary escapes from reality become more important than sweating the “Hell in a hadbasket” syndrome that seems to be running rampant these days, y’ know?
Anyhow, TDK may not eclipse the 300 mil mark, but I’m pretty sure we’re goinna see some staggering numbers by monday.
Stay tuned, and keep the faith
M.W.L.
Thnxs Vic, will look into that soon, just wante to point that out :). And yes Spiderman 3 will be the best way to compare it, I guess.
greets
Okay, everyone in here seems to be alot older than me. So take it form a “kiddie”. if you consider a jobless (barely) eighteen year old living with parents that.
In Miami you cant go like three miles without another seeing another theater. Everyone I know is seeing this thing. As soon as I saw signs up saying that TDK presales could be purchased, which was the day me and a friend saw Iron Man, We started buying.
About two weeks ago when I went to see Walle with a friend who hasnt bought his presale, was outta luck because the five movies in our range were sold out.
I’m not to sure parents will not allow kids to see this. Someone said that kids will be hounding parents for cash for this film…they were right.
I think it will crush sp3….which wasnt all that good. Yeh, I said it.
Heath –
Your “friend” deserves to be obliterated.
Put him out of his misery. He obviously likes ruining other peoples lives. End him now before he affects mine.
… j/k … I guess
Here is my question will space chimps have an impact on how much money or will that movie tank because of the dark knight.
Space Chimps will tank. Not due to TDK but due to the fact it looks like a bore. My 7 year old daughter didn’t even given it a thought after seeing the preview.
Vic
seffy,
You are eighteen.
You are an adult .
I was referring to parents taking their small kids.
I’m with ya, Vic.
Is it better than Iron Man? (I don’t think it will be)
It is selling out showings at regular theaters as well. Check out Wehrenbergs site, I counted 13 sold out shows, not including the one sold out IMAX theater. If you check out Navy Pier’s IMAX site you can see that movie is seeling out for most of it’s shows through the weekend (it is playing 72 hours straight) and is selling out at least one show through the following Friday.
I am seeing it at the Mega Screen where I live and it sold out on Monday, the first time my cities Mega Screen has sold out before the movies release. My bet is the movie makes at least 140 million, if not more.
Check this link out. Would these advanced sales be tallied in the first weekend take?
http://www.reelcomix.com/703-Dark-Knight-Continues-to-Break-Ticket-Records.html
Holy record busters!!!
I personally think the theaters are selling out because it is being reported that the theaters are selling and all the fanboys are saying “Holy freakin’ sellout Batman, I’d better get my tickets now or I’m not gonna be able to see it!”
Hype breeds hysteria, hysteria breeds hype and the machine goes on and on.
Great little system if you can get it going, IMHO.
@INK I believe I said that in my post.
Vic
Doesn’t matter anyway because it will be a smash hit and will make oodles of cashola and spawn another sequel..Good for the fans of CBM…
Gone with the Wind sold more tickets than Titanic…I remember when it cost 3 bucks to see a movie. Now it is 12!! I agree with the post below…Who cares about the money? It should be ranked on overall ticket sales.
is there any way to tell what days people are ordering for these pre sold tickets?
Niiki finke said TDK was 90% sold out .
But for what day?
Sold out for most of the weekend?
it seems like this frenzy about the preticket sales is just being used to get people to buy more tickets.
this all feels like a very manipulated event to me .
I’ve heard recently that The Dark Knight already broke Spiderman 3 record just by the ticket sales before the movie is even in theaters, which is a SHEDDING THE LIGHT news. I hated all 3 Spiderman movies, they were absolutely scripted, cast, and horrible cheap special effects. I hope this movie makes at least around $300 million. If not, then i can only dream.
Spider -Man 3 made 151 million in its first weekend .
thats not even predicted for TDK.
but that Type of report is just what I am talking about.
if it is right now on wednesday doing better in pre ticket sales then Spider man 3 why is it only estimated to make 130 million for the entire weekend ?
Thats 21 million less then SM3s opening weekend.
I am NOT questiong the film quality .
just the pre release hype about the ticket sales.
Glad I saw it twice before writing my review.
And Kel, it’s apples and oranges - it’s like comparing The Empire Strikes Back to Godfather II - they’re two very different films.
Vic
I am glad you liked it so much Vic.
i usually agree with your reviews .
Did you see it in IMAX?
As per your request, I decided to check out your newest post on “The Dark Knight”. I think it’s definitely sensible to approach the box office with a lot of doubt and little understanding. I took a lot of liberties in my own post in assuming things, and I liked your approach a lot. Great post!
And you definitely took a little heckling because of your $80 million opening weekend calculation, didn’t you?
(as I was one of the heckling…)
As i said before to the article you posted a month ago…..
The major factor here is that, the people aren’t going to see the movie for the main character or for the movie in general……BUT to see the man who died not so long ago in his 2nd last role…
Out of all the women i have talked to about the dark knight, most expressed that they were interested in seeing it and that they didnt even like batman at all..but b/c of heath ledger passing….
If this does break spider man 3’s record it’s b/c of heath…..
This is definitely going do the $130MM this weekend and will do better than Batman Begins. I watched it with a crowd last night and they really loved it.
Vic
Vic do you think it could break the opening record of Spider -Man 3?
Vic
I hope you are right Vic .
Box Office Report is predicting 118 million.
Box Office Guru is predicting 132 million.
I’m going to be the rebel and see Hellboy 2 this weekend instead of TDK. I bet the theaters aren’t as full next weekend for TDK, although I would bet it’s going to be the #1 movie for at least 3 weeks in a row. I really don’t the The X-Files is going to be able to knock off the Bat.
the thing about Spiderman 3 is that it pretty much sucked, so it didn’t get the multiple viewings it could have gotten opening weekend, which could have put it at least at 160 million. that will not be a problem for the dark knight. not only will people want multiple viewings, but they WILL bring friends. Word of mouth will be Very strong.
did u really just say 94 is half of 700?…
This is from Box Office mojo.
‘Dark Knight’ midnight opening: $18.489 million at 3,040 theaters.
Tops ‘Revenge of the Sith’s $16.5 million record.
I was messging around with numbers on the calc, and if you say 3,040 sold half a theather full of people and had a min 5 showings I said about 46m + dollars, lets say it does just as well on sat that would 110 million and cut those numbers in half for sunday because generally ticket sales are down it would come out to be 133 million. Wow that wwould be close to wgat a lot of predictions say. Well i could be wrong what ever, because i didnt include cheaper prices during the day or night showings get more people blah blah.
BUT I loved it and I am going to go see it again tom.
I was one of the lucky few to see it for free on tuesday night (at an imax no less) so I wont be helping those totals rise for at least a few more days. Granted…I am really excited to see it again. This is one of those movies that I wont mind sitting through twice (or three times if my friends have their way). But I do enjoy the fact that it will do well. Will it break records? Whos to say. My delorian is in the shop after all. But if this week is any indictation, there will be another Nolan helmed Batman film. Here here says I.
Thought you guys might get a chuckle out of this one…
I was running a follow spot for a rock show at the orange county fair last night. The show had three acts and started about half an hour before sunset (which made operating the lamp pretty much useless for the first band….
After the opener finished, a pretty good chunk of the crowd headed for the exits. Those of us on the com system were kinda wondering what was up when my cell phone rang right before the second act started their set. I answered, and it was a projectionist buddy of mine (who’s part of the same Local), asking if the crowd at the concert had thinned noticably. I was stunned that he knew what was going on! He was about 12 miles down the 405 fwy. at the Irvine Spectrum IMAX! He told me he had a hunch that the crowd jamming the front of the theater had just come from the O.C. fair. Sure enough, about 2 1/2 hours later ( in the middle of the headliner’s set no less…) ANOTHER MASS EXODUS! Although I have to admit the headliner was uber weak…I suspect that there might have been maybe 400 people left in the 5000 seat venue when the house lights came on! I’ve worked this venue for many moons and have never seen the like. I’m working the same venue tonight and will be really curious as to how TDK effects “The tides” for tonight’s shows.
I can’t wait to see this thing…sometime…
Peace,
M.W.L.
TDK set one day box office records at $66.4 million, beating Spiderman 3 by almost 7 million. There’s no chance that spiderman will keep its title for best opening weekend. Let say TDK does the same number for saturday and you get $132 million then add another $30 million for sunday and you get $162 million. Thats $10 million more the Spiderman 3, but I am thinking that the numbers will be more around $175 million when all is said and done this weekend.
$155.3 million is what is being projected. We’ll see for sure tomorrow but looks like TDK has beat Spiderman 3’s three day opening record
Well, guess this answers everything. The Dark Knight smashed through the records (and Spidey).. let’s see what other records will fall. Best..movie..ever..BTW
hAHaHahahhahha!!!!
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