Earlier this morning, I was talking about how fans online were nerdgasming over the release of The Incredible Hulk last week.
In case you’re unfamiliar with the phrase, “nerdgasming” is being insanely pumped about the release of something (i.e. usually a movie but it also applies to video games, television shows, etc.) to the point of “knowing” it’s going to be a blockbuster-level smash because of your excitement level and the fact that the Internet is talking about it non-stop.
And a lot of times, it doesn’t happen. Sure, sometimes the item in question does well – but nowhere near our own expectations and we find ourselves asking: “What happened?” That certainly applied this past weekend when the Hulk reboot pulled in a solid $55 million despite claims by many that it would churn out anywhere between $60 to $100 million(!) That was never. Gonna. Happen, folks.
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Now if there’s any film thats going to top the 3-day $100 million opening weekend of Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull this year, it’ll be the much-hyped Batman Begins sequel The Dark Knight.
But the question is… will it? Personally, I don’t think so and I shall explain why.
When Iron Man debuted last month with those 8:00 P.M. screenings, I decided to take two very good friends of mine (a young couple) and their little boys – aged 2 and 3 to see the film. As we left the theatre, we discussed the next “event film” we had to see at the very first screening and it was without a doubt going to be The Dark Knight. When I asked, “Should we take the boys with us?” all three of us thought about it for about a second and quickly said, “No.”
Just looking at the trailers (as great as they have been), it’s clear that this is going to be a much darker film than Batman Begins. Of course there are rumors saying the film actually pushes the limits of the PG-13 rating with its material. And I don’t think my friends and I are the only ones concerned about putting this in front of small children too young to comprehend the subject matter of said film.
There’s also the issue of The Dark Knight’s running length – reportedly at 150 minutes. One wonders if the studios will supply diapers for the audience so they can make it through the whole thing without a bathroom break. Although to be fair, both Pirates of the Caribbean sequels (as awful as they were) chugged out $100 million+ opening weekends and they were around that length – so that probably won’t be a factor.
Don’t get me wrong, ladies and germs. The Dark Knight is going to make a lot of money – easily more than the $205 million gross of Batman Begins. And it will have a huge opening weekend. My guess is the film will gross around $75 to $80 million in its 3-day opening weekend. As for its total domestic box office, I think at the moment we’re looking at a solid $240 to $250 million.
But will it reach anywhere near the $300 million mark that Iron Man has reached and Indy IV is closing in on? That remains to be seen. Let’s just not have a nerdgasm over it…
The Dark Knight opens on July 18th
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138 Comments
Tough to say Jamie. TDK is a sequel to a well received reboot movie + the Heath Ledger factor set the stage for a big opening. I’m inclined to think TDK will break $80 mill at least on opening weekend.
Doesn’t matter anyhow – Wall-E will rule all!
790
I know who he is but I think some of his stuff is out there..I thought he was labeled a racist…MAybe you could enlighten me…the whole alien’s seeding the planet and breeding with the blue-bloods of the world…I think the microchipping is quite valid though as well as the New World Order.
I really would love to Greenknight but not on this thread. Not really a subject related to Batman.
But I reccomend his dvd presentation, “secrets of the matrix”. Its a 3 disc dvd. 6 hours of hardcore truth.
i was also inclined to think that TDK wouldnt make over 100 mil over a weekend.. but one thing has factored in and i have to say it was Heath Ledger’s death (as sad as it was). i know a few people that (mostly female) that are definitely going to view the movie opening night just for the fact that its Ledgers last piece of work.
Great post, Jamie.
I know I’ll probably get shot down for this by the internet crowd that Jamie mentioned (that makes up less than 10 percent of the movies BO damage), but The Dark Knight won’t be making Iron Man or Indy money, that’s for sure. I think it will do better than Begins, but I hear people talking about Hancock more than I hear them talking about TDK, honestly. I think the film will have a 50-70 million opening weekend, but I may be surprised. I just hope it’s a good comic book movie, I’ve had a lot of doubts with this one and the way Batman has been handeled on film before.
I have always felt TDK will do similar to BBs opening weekend,
we will soon know.
but remember ,
Iron Man was new to the public
Batman certainly isnt.
Whoa…i just typed a comment….where the heck did it go????
Great post, Jamie.
I know I’ll probably get shot down by the internet crowd that is so high for this film (that contributes less than 10 percent of the film’s gross, BTW), but this film won’t be making Iron Man or Indy money, that’s for sure. I think it will make more than Begins, but it won’t be as huge as some have suggested. I hear more people talking about Hancock than TDK, honestly. It’ll probably have a 50-70 mil opening weekend. I just hope it’s a good comic book movie, I’ve had a lot of doubts about this and the way Batman has been handeled on film before. :/
Hopefully it’s as good as Incredible Hulk….damn! That was a great movie.
Quite a controversial article, but, not to be a yes man, but I agree with Jamie here. I’m pretty sure it will make more money than Batman Begins’ opening just because there ARE a lot of adults who will want to see it, as well as have a great opening, but it’s going to be something of a guilty pleasure, I bet.
Crap….I basically typed the same thing twice cuz I thought I hadn’t posted it the 1st time. My bad.
Just a tip, after a submit wait 5 seconds
then hit refresh. If your message doesn’t
come up repeat before reposting. accumulated handshake, reads/writes, backup ops if its late and internet traffic density can delay the fastest connection.
Anybody check out Gothamcablenews.com?
Just some thoughts…
Not a bad piece of low cost advertising. As summer 2008 becomes “super hero summer” advertising and early reviews
will make a difference in TDKs’ weekend gross. That all important Friday newspaper review and an extra article with some yet unused comments from Ledger, Nolan, and Bale would be good. Perhaps if Warner took a Marketing chance like a $2.00 off coupon in the paper for the late Thursday showing in IMAX. Send your kids to Warner’s “Speed Racer” with a $1.00 off coupon when you buy one ticket to see TDK. Gas hit $4.09 a gallon yesterday, a trip to the theater might be cheaper than dragging the boat out Saturday to go to the lake. Pray for rain that weekend.
Hey KEL I’ve been getting that a lot too and hitting the refresh feature doesn’t do it..logging off does however..go figure
Green, your issue was a refresh, with Kel for some reason his comments were caught by the spam filter, although I’m not sure why.
Vic
…..»I was just messin with him….»
LMAO
WOW, well i can honestly say i didnt read every single comment so i might be wrong in part of my assesment(sp).
DO U WANT STATS? hancock? NAH, it only has 2 million views on youtube compared to the dark knight having close to 9 million views…..the dark knight has more buzz than any movie in the last 5 years……mainly bc of heath dying….
the main trailer for hancock has 3,000 text comments…..
the dark knight has over 28,000 text comments…….thats unheard of
as far as i can see, everyone on here is under estimating the LADY factor here as well…….every single girl i know is going to see this movie and they dont even like batman or care for the story, they are goin to see heath ledger in his last role and pay their respect……..
i kno so many people who didnt even see the batman begins or like batman…and want to see this simply to see heath ledger……..
my box office prediction: it will beat spider man’s record and make between 150 to 170 mil opening weekend…..not b/c of the male crowd but b/c of the female crowd and the non-batman fans merely going to see heath’s last horay……you all might say im over estimating but you all, are under estimating…….it wont do less than 130 mil, guaranteed…….
BEFORE HEATH LEDGER DIED = 75 to 95 mil opening weekend
Heath LEDGER DEAD = 150 to 170 mil opening………
I’m not really sure why people would think having a “darker” theme or approach to the film would cripple its financial gains. Have any of you seen the Matrix Reloaded? It’s Rated-R, clearly for the mature audience, and it ended up grossing $90M or so on its opening weekend?
ben, I wish I could bet you money
150 to 170 million opening? Cut that in half my friend. Remember I said that, hehe. It will not make over 100 in its first weekend.
can u give me any stats or reasons why it wont?!!!?!?
this is the most hyped movie in the last 5 to 10 years……..my stats prove it……
This film I believe should gross over 100 million. Mostly everyone I have talked to is going to see this film because of Heath. Myself, being a Joker fan, there is no doubt. I have just been informed critics have seen an early screening of it in New York and have given it “two thumbs up” and say that Heath is “Oscar worthy” for his role as the Joker. That is good news!
Uh . . . Who cares how much money it makes?
That has almost nothing to do with the success of the film.
It’ll make enough to finish the trilogy. Who cares if little kids can go and see it?
Um, I can understand your saying “Who cares how much money it makes?” but that has EVERYTHING to do with the success of the film. Box office receipts are in fact the measuring stick for whether a film is successful or not.
Now it has very little do with whether it’s GOOD, that’s for sure – as many excellent movies make hardly any money and many cruddy ones do.
Vic
Vic I was under the impression that TDK probably would not have been made if Superman Returns had been a better money maker for WB…WHen they looked back at both films they got a much better return on BB so they went with TDK before MOS.I think WB was hoping for Spiderman like BO dollars on SR but it didn’t materialize…I thought BB was the much better of the two movies and I am so glad they continued with the filmmakers of BB..
The Hulk did not have the nergasming of the majority of the internet. The Dark Knight does.
Iron man covered some pretty over pg-13 subject matter – maybe you forget the one night stand stuff at the beginning? Or how about the part where you have terrorists, Iron Man on killing sprees, and oh, did I mention.. but enough said. If The Dark Knight is pg-13, don’t you think your kids are going to end up watching it anyway, with their friends?
I dont know what the true expectations are for The Dark Knight so I dont know if they are too high but here are my predictions…..
Batman Begins did $48M opening weekend so I am guessing that TDK will do about double that or close too….I am guessing $95M opening weekend
Its total box office run for the US is probably going to be around $300M.
Batman Begins only made $166 overseas so if TDK makes a little over 2x that it should make around $350M with a total of about $650M Worldwide which would be a huge success.
I dont think the running time for any movie truly matters. I mean look at any of the Lord of the Rings movies….the Return of the King was well over 3 hrs and it made over $1 Billion worldwide.
If people want to see the movie then they will see it regardless of the running time.
I also dont think that the dark tone will effect the movie too much. If a movie like 300 can pull in $450M with a R raiting then I am sure TDK will make much more than that with a PG-13 raiting.
I do have a question for everyone else….
If you had to pick one movie this summer to do better at the Box Office worldwide which movie would you pick, Indy 4 or TDK?
I have a bet going with a few friends for $700 on Indy 4 but I am now starting to worry. Hopefully TDK doesnt touch Indy numbers. : )
Sorry Sahil but the last “trailer” for TDK was better than Indy4.
TDK is going to violate Indy4’s numbers I’m afraid.
Btw,,,,,
The films length does factor into how many times a theater can run it during their normal business hours.
The films gonna break 100 mil easy.
790
I certainly hope you are wrong but we will have to wait and see.
Nothing personal Sahil, I remember you on another site btw.
TDK has an incredible marketing campaign, viral and physical that is unique to say the least.
I’ve never seen a film marketed to such an extent in my life.
This film could do 160 mil if there’s enough theaters showing it.
Its gonna beat Indy4 I’m afraid to say.
But I could be wrong have been before.
$160 Opening Weekend? No way. It could break $100 maybe but $160 is puushing it.
Yeah your prob right Sahil,
but I bet its gonna go past 100 easy.