Earlier this morning, I was talking about how fans online were nerdgasming over the release of The Incredible Hulk last week.
In case you’re unfamiliar with the phrase, “nerdgasming” is being insanely pumped about the release of something (i.e. usually a movie but it also applies to video games, television shows, etc.) to the point of “knowing” it’s going to be a blockbuster-level smash because of your excitement level and the fact that the Internet is talking about it non-stop.
And a lot of times, it doesn’t happen. Sure, sometimes the item in question does well - but nowhere near our own expectations and we find ourselves asking: “What happened?” That certainly applied this past weekend when the Hulk reboot pulled in a solid $55 million despite claims by many that it would churn out anywhere between $60 to $100 million(!) That was never. Gonna. Happen, folks.
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Now if there’s any film thats going to top the 3-day $100 million opening weekend of Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull this year, it’ll be the much-hyped Batman Begins sequel The Dark Knight.
But the question is… will it? Personally, I don’t think so and I shall explain why.
When Iron Man debuted last month with those 8:00 P.M. screenings, I decided to take two very good friends of mine (a young couple) and their little boys - aged 2 and 3 to see the film. As we left the theatre, we discussed the next “event film” we had to see at the very first screening and it was without a doubt going to be The Dark Knight. When I asked, “Should we take the boys with us?” all three of us thought about it for about a second and quickly said, “No.”
Just looking at the trailers (as great as they have been), it’s clear that this is going to be a much darker film than Batman Begins. Of course there are rumors saying the film actually pushes the limits of the PG-13 rating with its material. And I don’t think my friends and I are the only ones concerned about putting this in front of small children too young to comprehend the subject matter of said film.
There’s also the issue of The Dark Knight’s running length - reportedly at 150 minutes. One wonders if the studios will supply diapers for the audience so they can make it through the whole thing without a bathroom break. Although to be fair, both Pirates of the Caribbean sequels (as awful as they were) chugged out $100 million+ opening weekends and they were around that length - so that probably won’t be a factor.
Don’t get me wrong, ladies and germs. The Dark Knight is going to make a lot of money - easily more than the $205 million gross of Batman Begins. And it will have a huge opening weekend. My guess is the film will gross around $75 to $80 million in its 3-day opening weekend. As for its total domestic box office, I think at the moment we’re looking at a solid $240 to $250 million.
But will it reach anywhere near the $300 million mark that Iron Man has reached and Indy IV is closing in on? That remains to be seen. Let’s just not have a nerdgasm over it…
The Dark Knight opens on July 18th
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138 Comments
To answer your question: no. You’re wrong on this one. And I’m not nerdgasming either… In fact, I think you’ve gone to the entire opposite side of nerdgasm.
Vic, I hate to say it, but you can’t use personal experiences as a basis for the success of a film. Just because you and your friends think the subject matter is too dark to take your kids doesn’t mean their are millions of others who will take them. Additionally, you’re not accounting for the millions of males aged 18 to 34 who will be seeing The Dark Knight and that’s all this needs to pass $100 million in its opening weekend.
If I have to recall stories of my own, I can’t even begin to tell you how often I’ve heard people say that The Dark Knight is the one movie that they actually care about going to see opening weekend in theaters. The viral marketing has been perfect, the hype has been growing and is immense, everything about this is set to open HUGE. And it will, despite you’re own worries.
You’ll see soon enough, but this just seems to be a case of retaliation in opposition to the buzz for The Dark Knight. It will be big, but I’m not going to predict a number. I will just say that you’re very wrong on this one buddy.
Hey Alex, although I happen to agree with the above post - I didn’t write it.
Vic
I WANT to be wrong on this, good Sir. But it’s a legit question to pose to everyone.
Jamie.
Oh… Woops! Well take that Jamie!
Nah, my comment still stands as is. To whoever wrote the article - you’re wrong.
I had just the same concerns about this movie, that it maybe will be to dark for a bigger audience. But frankly, I don’t care, this movie is going to rock and is going to be exactly what it’s meant to be. One thing I know for sure, is that all my friends (well a lot!) will sure to go and see this flick. So maybe, maybe, we’ll see about the numbers. I’m more excited about the movie itself :).
greets
Steven
I have learned not to make predictions on box office here .
but if TDK duplicated The Incredible Hulks take that would be 9 million more then BB did which wouldnt be too bad .
Thats not a prediction,
just trying to put it in perspective.
Another thing to consider is TDK will have a lot of competition For the Superhero audience even though its an original character Hancock is defintely being marketed as a superhero film.
It is being immeadiately followed the next week By Hellboy II.
By the time TDK comes there might some moviegoers who think “oh,not ANOTHER one!
I also think TDK isnt marketing to wommen,
Which is a mistake.
If TDK makes $77 million dollars thats double what BB made in its opening weekend.
thats my definition of a successfuol weekend!
It will be dark for sure, but dark enough to leave the kids at home? I don’t think so.
my Dad let me watch the Alien movies when I was 4. maybe it’s just me but I think everyone is starting to be way to careful about what their children see. now I’m not saying we should take our kids to see the next alien movie. watching those when I was little did scare me, but it made all other movies seem mild in comparison. I don’t think the darker tone will hurt the box office gross of The Dark Knight at all.
C’mon guys a psychotic joker killing everyone in site sadistically and certain female characters being tossed off buildings and a very scarred and disturbing two-face character..this is a no brainer..it will not make 100 million in it’s opening weekend it is just not market friendly enough…
Patrick…Holy Shite man!! 4 watching Alien and Aliens…Gimme a break!! Make no wonder the Gen Y’ers are all so desensitized to everything…Between the violence in movies, video games and TVs we are raising a generation of sociopaths..I find that disturbing, there is no way I would let my 5 year old watch anything like that..Actually they don’t play video games either…
my Dad let me watch the Alien movies when I was 4. maybe it’s just me but I think everyone is starting to be way to careful about what their children see.
Holy Cow Patrick!! Does anybody else not think that that is a little careless.. I have a six year old and there is no way I would even consider letting him watch somthing like that..I don’t get the violence in video games, music videos, TV, movies…It’s no wonder everything is going down the toilet…Kids are so desensitized to everything now that we are raising a society full of sociopaths..My kids don’t play video games and in fact we have no TV channels so they don’t get it there wither..I know what you are thinking but they don’t miss it..they have watched TV at my sisters place but don’t miss it when we go home after spending a weekend visiting…
There must be something wrong with my PC because I keep have to retype or resend my posts as it just sends me back to the page without my post being there…AAARRRRRGGHHHH!!!!!!
It’s working fine for me, but try hitting the page refresh after you post your comment to see if it appears.
Vic
Im of course looking forward to the dark knight…more than any movie in a very very long time, but I actually agree that it won’t make 100 million it’s opening weekend. Maybe somehting like 70-80 million is a little more it’s speed because of the subject matter.
I actually don’t see anything wrong with a 4 or 5 year seeing Alien, but it all depends on the child. When I was 5 I could have seen Alien and it wouldn’t have affected me in anyway. I saw Jaws when I was 4 and went swiming in Ocean City Maryland not long after, why? Because I knew it was just a movie. Sure some kids are to immature to take to movies like that and parents with those kind of children should know better, but don’t think Patricks father was a horrible perent just because he took his son to see Alien for christs sake.
Kobayashi Maru…
Why???
Let the next 30 commentors explain!
A bathroom break is the excuse I give
the attendant, when they suggest I
upsize my soft drink. :O
Philippines is waiting fot THE DARK KNIGHT
\m/
thanks Ronnie.
greennight333 I think it’s good that you don’t have tv channels. you probably spend more time with your kids than most parents.
seeing aliens when I was 4 didn’t effect me at all while I was growing up, violent movies didn’t either. video games were exactly what they were to me, games. I can see what your saying, and I agree with it to a certain extent, but I think that people can go another way by watching movies like The Dark Knight with their kids, just talk with them about it after wards. make sure they understand that it’s just a movie, and that Batman is awesome. after a few movies like that, and a few chats like that, I’m sure kids would understand. as for Ronnie and I, we were just way ahead of the other 5 year olds =)
Wow! if your going to be a movie critic, know the difference between a good movie and a bad moive. The Dark Knight will be THE BEST movie of the summer, maybe not make the most money but the best actual movie. And 150 Mins? Man if you can’t sit through one of the most anticipated movies ever you should take those bladder medecines on TV!
Oh come on. I remember king kong to be more than 3 hours long, spidy 3 was 156 mins! Looking forward to dark knight. Dont drink too much in the beginning of the movie.
Guys, you DID notice that the article is about how much money the film will make, not how GOOD it will be?
It will make a pile of cash - the question is only how BIG a pile.
And regarding bladder control, I guess you guys don’t recognize humor when you see it…
Vic
In 2003, the R rated Matrix Reloaded made over 130 Million in its four day weekend (90 Million Fri-Mon.) That was when tickets were cheaper as well. R rated 300 made over 70 Million in its opening weekend. That wasn’t even an established franchise. So there is no reason to think that a dark PG-13 movie isn’t capable of making over 100 mil.
Kids don’t determine as much of the box office as most people think. In fact, more adults may be eager to go if they believe there won’t be any annoying six years olds sitting around them.
LOL, Chris, AWESOME point on having a lack of 6 year olds in the audience.
Now if we can only get people to leave their babies with babysitters…
Vic
Personally I agree with the article.
It will make a lot of money. It will be an excellent movie. But it won’t be a major mainstream smash hit.
Personally I’m fine with that. It never sits comfortably with me when the mob loves something the same way I do.
This is the sort of movie that purges the weak and leaves only the strong to acclaim it!
Mind you, I do wonder what the Heath Ledger factor will do to it.
Good. Take the little brats to Kung Fu Panda, where they belong. Save TDK for the grown-ups.
I see Shawn has no kids…and they are not all brats man…Some of them are even cute…Nice ego dude…all about you..
Ronnie,
I didn’t say Patrick’s father was a bad parent I just stated that it was a little careless to let someone that young see a movie like that…Everone knows the PG-13 rating is the way it is because a lot of these movies walk the fine line for that rating and although they say PG is suggested they want your kids asses in the seats so they an make money..I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again..the Gen Y generation are very desensitized to violence in general..So if you think something is not violent when it actually is you just escalate the violence in these types of mass media for audiences to get a thrill. Psychologists have been talking about this for decades dude..it’s not new..There is no way a four year old can understand and process some of the violence in these movies..Cripes man they are 4!!! FOUR!!!! Children at this age are still very innocent and should not be exposed to this type of media this early on in life..My opinion is just an opinion…read what I wrote and try not to make inferences…
ANd guys it’s the images on the screen that leave a lasting impression so when a child wakes up at night from a nightmare because of something he/she has seen in a movie, I think it’s a great move to tell them it was only a movie but they are in no way mature enough to comprehend what you are saying.and yes eventually they will become desensitized but that is not a good thing
I agree Greenknight 333, there’s a global adgenda here. Desensitation is key to making it all work.
Most people won’t even know what I mean. That’s how good its working.
Thanks 790…Agendas abound everywhere…Keep em desensitized keep them simple and keep them entertained and distracted.
Cheers
Patrick
If I offended you or your Dad I apologize as that was not my intention..
We just have a difference in opinion on acceptable levels of violence for 4 year olds..
Cheers
Greenknight333 check out some of David Icke’s dvds.
Tough to say Jamie. TDK is a sequel to a well received reboot movie + the Heath Ledger factor set the stage for a big opening. I’m inclined to think TDK will break $80 mill at least on opening weekend.
Doesn’t matter anyhow - Wall-E will rule all!
790
I know who he is but I think some of his stuff is out there..I thought he was labeled a racist…MAybe you could enlighten me…the whole alien’s seeding the planet and breeding with the blue-bloods of the world…I think the microchipping is quite valid though as well as the New World Order.
I really would love to Greenknight but not on this thread. Not really a subject related to Batman.
But I reccomend his dvd presentation, “secrets of the matrix”. Its a 3 disc dvd. 6 hours of hardcore truth.
i was also inclined to think that TDK wouldnt make over 100 mil over a weekend.. but one thing has factored in and i have to say it was Heath Ledger’s death (as sad as it was). i know a few people that (mostly female) that are definitely going to view the movie opening night just for the fact that its Ledgers last piece of work.
Great post, Jamie.
I know I’ll probably get shot down for this by the internet crowd that Jamie mentioned (that makes up less than 10 percent of the movies BO damage), but The Dark Knight won’t be making Iron Man or Indy money, that’s for sure. I think it will do better than Begins, but I hear people talking about Hancock more than I hear them talking about TDK, honestly. I think the film will have a 50-70 million opening weekend, but I may be surprised. I just hope it’s a good comic book movie, I’ve had a lot of doubts with this one and the way Batman has been handeled on film before.
I have always felt TDK will do similar to BBs opening weekend,
we will soon know.
but remember ,
Iron Man was new to the public
Batman certainly isnt.
Whoa…i just typed a comment….where the heck did it go????
Great post, Jamie.
I know I’ll probably get shot down by the internet crowd that is so high for this film (that contributes less than 10 percent of the film’s gross, BTW), but this film won’t be making Iron Man or Indy money, that’s for sure. I think it will make more than Begins, but it won’t be as huge as some have suggested. I hear more people talking about Hancock than TDK, honestly. It’ll probably have a 50-70 mil opening weekend. I just hope it’s a good comic book movie, I’ve had a lot of doubts about this and the way Batman has been handeled on film before. :/
Hopefully it’s as good as Incredible Hulk….damn! That was a great movie.
Quite a controversial article, but, not to be a yes man, but I agree with Jamie here. I’m pretty sure it will make more money than Batman Begins’ opening just because there ARE a lot of adults who will want to see it, as well as have a great opening, but it’s going to be something of a guilty pleasure, I bet.
Crap….I basically typed the same thing twice cuz I thought I hadn’t posted it the 1st time. My bad.
Just a tip, after a submit wait 5 seconds
then hit refresh. If your message doesn’t
come up repeat before reposting. accumulated handshake, reads/writes, backup ops if its late and internet traffic density can delay the fastest connection.
Anybody check out Gothamcablenews.com?
Just some thoughts…
Not a bad piece of low cost advertising. As summer 2008 becomes “super hero summer” advertising and early reviews
will make a difference in TDKs’ weekend gross. That all important Friday newspaper review and an extra article with some yet unused comments from Ledger, Nolan, and Bale would be good. Perhaps if Warner took a Marketing chance like a $2.00 off coupon in the paper for the late Thursday showing in IMAX. Send your kids to Warner’s “Speed Racer” with a $1.00 off coupon when you buy one ticket to see TDK. Gas hit $4.09 a gallon yesterday, a trip to the theater might be cheaper than dragging the boat out Saturday to go to the lake. Pray for rain that weekend.
Hey KEL I’ve been getting that a lot too and hitting the refresh feature doesn’t do it..logging off does however..go figure
Green, your issue was a refresh, with Kel for some reason his comments were caught by the spam filter, although I’m not sure why.
Vic
…..»I was just messin with him….»
LMAO
WOW, well i can honestly say i didnt read every single comment so i might be wrong in part of my assesment(sp).
DO U WANT STATS? hancock? NAH, it only has 2 million views on youtube compared to the dark knight having close to 9 million views…..the dark knight has more buzz than any movie in the last 5 years……mainly bc of heath dying….
the main trailer for hancock has 3,000 text comments…..
the dark knight has over 28,000 text comments…….thats unheard of
as far as i can see, everyone on here is under estimating the LADY factor here as well…….every single girl i know is going to see this movie and they dont even like batman or care for the story, they are goin to see heath ledger in his last role and pay their respect……..
i kno so many people who didnt even see the batman begins or like batman…and want to see this simply to see heath ledger……..
my box office prediction: it will beat spider man’s record and make between 150 to 170 mil opening weekend…..not b/c of the male crowd but b/c of the female crowd and the non-batman fans merely going to see heath’s last horay……you all might say im over estimating but you all, are under estimating…….it wont do less than 130 mil, guaranteed…….
BEFORE HEATH LEDGER DIED = 75 to 95 mil opening weekend
Heath LEDGER DEAD = 150 to 170 mil opening………
I’m not really sure why people would think having a “darker” theme or approach to the film would cripple its financial gains. Have any of you seen the Matrix Reloaded? It’s Rated-R, clearly for the mature audience, and it ended up grossing $90M or so on its opening weekend?
ben, I wish I could bet you money
150 to 170 million opening? Cut that in half my friend. Remember I said that, hehe. It will not make over 100 in its first weekend.
can u give me any stats or reasons why it wont?!!!?!?
this is the most hyped movie in the last 5 to 10 years……..my stats prove it……
This film I believe should gross over 100 million. Mostly everyone I have talked to is going to see this film because of Heath. Myself, being a Joker fan, there is no doubt. I have just been informed critics have seen an early screening of it in New York and have given it “two thumbs up” and say that Heath is “Oscar worthy” for his role as the Joker. That is good news!
Uh . . . Who cares how much money it makes?
That has almost nothing to do with the success of the film.
It’ll make enough to finish the trilogy. Who cares if little kids can go and see it?
Um, I can understand your saying “Who cares how much money it makes?” but that has EVERYTHING to do with the success of the film. Box office receipts are in fact the measuring stick for whether a film is successful or not.
Now it has very little do with whether it’s GOOD, that’s for sure - as many excellent movies make hardly any money and many cruddy ones do.
Vic
Vic I was under the impression that TDK probably would not have been made if Superman Returns had been a better money maker for WB…WHen they looked back at both films they got a much better return on BB so they went with TDK before MOS.I think WB was hoping for Spiderman like BO dollars on SR but it didn’t materialize…I thought BB was the much better of the two movies and I am so glad they continued with the filmmakers of BB..
The Hulk did not have the nergasming of the majority of the internet. The Dark Knight does.
Iron man covered some pretty over pg-13 subject matter - maybe you forget the one night stand stuff at the beginning? Or how about the part where you have terrorists, Iron Man on killing sprees, and oh, did I mention.. but enough said. If The Dark Knight is pg-13, don’t you think your kids are going to end up watching it anyway, with their friends?
I dont know what the true expectations are for The Dark Knight so I dont know if they are too high but here are my predictions…..
Batman Begins did $48M opening weekend so I am guessing that TDK will do about double that or close too….I am guessing $95M opening weekend
Its total box office run for the US is probably going to be around $300M.
Batman Begins only made $166 overseas so if TDK makes a little over 2x that it should make around $350M with a total of about $650M Worldwide which would be a huge success.
I dont think the running time for any movie truly matters. I mean look at any of the Lord of the Rings movies….the Return of the King was well over 3 hrs and it made over $1 Billion worldwide.
If people want to see the movie then they will see it regardless of the running time.
I also dont think that the dark tone will effect the movie too much. If a movie like 300 can pull in $450M with a R raiting then I am sure TDK will make much more than that with a PG-13 raiting.
I do have a question for everyone else….
If you had to pick one movie this summer to do better at the Box Office worldwide which movie would you pick, Indy 4 or TDK?
I have a bet going with a few friends for $700 on Indy 4 but I am now starting to worry. Hopefully TDK doesnt touch Indy numbers. : )
Sorry Sahil but the last “trailer” for TDK was better than Indy4.
TDK is going to violate Indy4’s numbers I’m afraid.
Btw,,,,,
The films length does factor into how many times a theater can run it during their normal business hours.
The films gonna break 100 mil easy.
790
I certainly hope you are wrong but we will have to wait and see.
Nothing personal Sahil, I remember you on another site btw.
TDK has an incredible marketing campaign, viral and physical that is unique to say the least.
I’ve never seen a film marketed to such an extent in my life.
This film could do 160 mil if there’s enough theaters showing it.
Its gonna beat Indy4 I’m afraid to say.
But I could be wrong have been before.
$160 Opening Weekend? No way. It could break $100 maybe but $160 is puushing it.
Yeah your prob right Sahil,
but I bet its gonna go past 100 easy.
I really dont care if it makes $100 opening weekend or more. I am just hoping that it doesnt make as much as Indy4. So far Indy is already at $715 and still has some air left….atleast for overseas market….I think it has a shot of going to $750 atleast if not $800.
I know I’m going to see DN in IMAX because a full 18 percent was shot in native IMAX. I give DN about a 5 percent edge on Indy4 because of that and “Batman Gotham Knight” being released july 8. Additionally what is now probably known as the “Heath Factor”, giving DN another 5 percent.
So 825M world wide.
Hey Old Man
Where do you get your facts from? How do you know that a full 18 percent was shot in native IMAX. I was watching the making of TDK and Christopher Nolan said that they only filmed 3 different shots in IMAX so it would look great in the IMAX theater but he didnt say anything about shooting 1/5th of the movie in IMAX.
Wow, now that I’m starting to hear more and more people talking about going to see this movie…I mean people who don’t even go to the movies anymore I’m starting to rethink my 70-80 million prediction. 100 mil might be more within reach and maybe even something like 120-130…I still think thats reaching a little but much more possible than I thought it was just a few weeks ago.
Was thinking it’s final take would be around 250-270 million and now think it can be go to 300-320…once again a few weeks I wouldn’t have thought it was possible but I went and seen Hancock and 1/3 of the place clapped and cheered when the Dark Knight trailer ended, I’ve heard buzz before for a trailer but have to say I can’t remember seeing that kind of reaction to a trailer at least in recent memorey.
I still think Indy4 will be tops for final totals…which more than likely doesn’t boed well for the good taste of movie goers because that movie was ehhh…but a domectic of 300-320 and a total of 600-650 million is actually possible.
Sahil,
I don’t think it’s 1/5th in Imax, but maybe closer to maybe 1/10th. Was only like 3 or 4 scenes
Ronnie
I started reading your predictions for TDK and almost freaked out because it seems like you know what you are talking about……anyways I am really glad that you think that INDY will beat TDK. I am starting to feel like I made a horrible bet but I guess its too late to take it back.
Sahil,
Yeah I still think the final domestic and international for Indy 4 will be slightly higher than The Dark Knight. It’s possible TDK could eek past Indy in domestic but Batman has never been a big overseas draw. Batman Begins only pulled in a little over $166 million outside of north america, Batman Returns barley cleared 100 with $104 million, Batman Forever $150+ million, Batman and Robin $130+ million and the first Batman in 1989 only took in $160. So a $300+ international haul would be a huge jump for the Batman series.
I think double that $166 for Begins is very possible maybe even likely, putting TDK total in around that $650 million mark, but Indy I think has already made more than that.
It is likely this movie could blow up. The buzz is HUGE! Every day I hear more and more from people a $350 million domestic becomes more and more possible. Still don’t see it because of the dark tone of the film. This is tough one to peg, but I think you still have a slightly better than 50/50 chance of winning your bet with your friend. The bet was for world total right?
Yeah Ronnie but the Batman from 1989’s box office of 160 million would equal about 280 million today
Returns 104=172
Forever 150=250
So ronnie if your overseas BO totals are accurate then I think all the Batman movies did actually better than Batman Begins…I think BB did poorly overseas because of the bad mojo created by Batman & Robin..I think TDK will do massive overseas numbers because of all the great buzz generated by BB and also surrounding Heath Ledger’s final performance.The movie will probably make 30 million is Austrailia alone and another 60-75 million in the UK because that is where Nolan, Bale, Caine, and Olman are from…I look for 300-400 million overseas for this film and I think I am being conservative with that…
Indy IV is up to 720 million WOrldwide
Cheers
Ronnie
The bet was for Worldwide.
GreenKnight333
I just checked the updated total on BoxOfficeMojo and Indy4 is at $736.5M….if Indy gets to $744M so about $8 more it would make 2x what BB made $371worldwide. I hope thats enought. I dont see TDK making more than 2x what BB did…..atleast I hope not. Plus Indy still has legs…It could get to $775 or maybe even $800 but I am being optimistic.
Depends on how many markets are left for Indy. For an example I recently read that Germany won’t even get the Dark Knight till August 21st, so Indy might still have 2 or 3 pretty sizable markets left that could push it close to $800 worlwide. I agree, I don’t see The Dark Knight making anymore than double worlwide what Batman Begins did, which would be around $730, so Indy would still beat it out by a nice little amount.
$280 worlwide adjusted for Batman 89 isn’t that amazing. It still wouldn’t be amazing for The Dark Knight…it would be a good little haul but wouldn’t be incredible. I think if it takes in around that domestic and international Warner Bros would be pretty happy with around $600 million worldwide tally.
Batman Begins didn’t perform well at all abroad. It still made a load of money if you factor in worldwide boxoffice and DVD and PPV and rentals. It did incredibly well on DVD when word started to spread just how good the movie was. Your 100% right, Warner Bros had a lot of work to do to revive the series after that horrible Batman and Robin fiasco.
If TDK was to make over 400 million internationaly they would be very VERY happy and I guess you could say Nolan and company have officially brought Batman series back from the dead. Which being a HUGE life long Batman I’d be one happy camper
I wonder what Batman 89’s adjusted domestic take would be, as well as Superman the movie, which back in the late 70’s made something like $130+ million. I would think that one of those two movies would beat out any of the Spidey films attendence totals
Second best thing about TDK coming out next week, no more speculations on what it will make.
Holly Wooden nickels, this is getting boring.
Well, I can’t honestly say I’m much of a “stats” man… though I’m sure it wouldn’t take much google-ing to present some valid predictions based from past revelations.
But what I do think is something that cannot be ignored, at least in my little corner of the globe, is the hype surrounding this film.
I’ll consider myself a pretty big fan of the Batman character… that’s right, the character. The reason I make a point of this particular aspect is because I don’t deem it right to call myself a true fan, as I haven’t afforded myself the opportunity to read A LOT of the lore established through the comics, but have always followed the character of Batman through his various incarnations on the small and big screen. Batman: The Animated Series came to fruition around the time I was about 10 years old - prime cartoon watching age, as well as having set the benchmark for me personally of my expectations for everything “Batman” that followed it. As such, fast forward to the age of 28, and I can guarantee you I will be one those people sitting in that theater opening weekend - with the same anticipation, eyes glued to the screen, like they were some 18 years ago.
The fact is, I love the character of Batman.
But when Begins came out, I waited until it came out on DVD to even bother laying my eyes on it. Why? I must admit, I still had a very sour taste in my mouth left over from the joke that was Batman & Robin.
Once I finally did see Begins, I must say, I was actually pretty pleased…
And I speak of course without the proper context of actual facts to produce…
But as far as I know, a lot of people actually did enjoy & appreciate Nolan’s take.
Enough to warrant their (money’s worth, and) return to see it’s sequel once it hits theaters.
I will go, because to me, it’s the first promise of a well done full featured “Batman” movie, since I saw the first Burton film as a kid.
Of course, I could be wrong… we all have yet to see.
I think Begins was needed… as well as appropriate, and welcomed.
However, for me it was a movie about Bruce Wayne.
I - and a lot of people I either know or have spoken to about this movie… are ready to see the next big Batman movie.
I believe it will do very well - I don’t feel it will break any records, but I think it’s going to do very, very well financially come opening weekend. The kind of momentum it’s gained, I don’t believe will result in just a simply “good” opening; not the best… but likely a noteworthy one. I’m not even generally a movie-goer; but this one makes me willing to step out of my “box” and into a movie theater to watch it.
If not only to see - and experience - one of my favorite characters fleshed out for the first time… on something other than just the television in my living room.
Ronnie
Batman (1989)
US BOX = $251M
Overseas = $160M
Total = $411M
Batman (1989) adjusted for inflation
US BOX = $465M
Overseas = $277M
Total = $742
Superman (1978)
US Box = $134M
Overseas = $166M
Total = $300M
Superman (1978) adjusted for inflation
US Box = $394M
Overseas = $488M
Total = $882M
Spider-man 1 (2002)
US = $403M
Overseas = $418M
Total = $821M
Spider-man 1 Adjusted for inflation
US = $477M
Overseas = $495
Total = $972
I can figure out the estimated attendance but thats way too many numbers.
RevOne
I just have one question…..
If you love the character of Batman then why did you wait for Batman Begins until the dvd?
I know that you already mentioned that you pretty much hated Batman and Robin but still Batman Begins got great reviews for a comic book movie. I think it was like an 84% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Batman and Robin is one of only two films I ever walked out in the middle of…what a horrible movie. The thing is with boxoffice take, dvd and other sales that movie broke even if not made a profit…sad, sad, sad.
Sahil,
I hated Batman and Robin as well, but I was there for the midnight showing of Batman Begins, which was only about half full…won’t be able to say that for this one I bet, lol. I was there and was of course blown away, I ended up seeing Begins about 10-12 times at the movies in four different states, lol. Everytime someone said they were going to see I was like “OH…I’ll go” I just wanted to see their reaction and everytime it was one of being absolutely blown away by how good the movie was.
That along with the hype is one of the reasons I know this movie will be much larger.
Sahil,
So it’s safe to say just looking over those numbers the first Batman and first Spiderman would be neck and neck in attendence in north america. Also Superman the movie did pretty well also, almost $400 million adjusted…wow.
Thanks for the numbers.
who ever thinks that dark night will gross more than indy 4 worldwide is insane!!! it will be lucky to compete with iron man numbers. however i do think it could gross 300 mil domestics and who cares about opening weekend there are movies that have had a bad opening weekend that have grossed over 300 mil domestic. AND yes the darker tone will put parents of going with there kids not all of them but definietly a few.
James
I certainly hope you are right. Idk about alot of movies that made $300M that had a bad opening. The only movie that comes to mind is Titanic….I think it had an opening of like $28ish and it made around $600M. But Titanic was a complete freak. Besides that nothing else comes to mind.
@ Sahil:
I was actually pretty excited to hear the news they decided on green lighting a revamp of the franchise; even going as far as following the leaks on it’s development until it’s release. My dad is also a HUGE comic book fan, with one of his own faves being Batman. I wanted to see it opening weekend with him.
I think it was just taking the “wait & see” approach, and then finally once it did release and I hadn’t gone, it just became one of those things I put off until it came out on DVD. I DID however, get it the day it released to home video.
I think the difference for me with this one (The Dark Knight) is that Begins turned out to be such a good movie.
It’s a debatable subject, but I actually feel it was not only a good example of a superhero movie, but when looked at as a medium, it was a pretty damned good FILM.
Basically, for me, THE DARK KNIGHT has BATMAN BEGINS to back it up, where the latter mentioned film, was a shot in the dark.
I think a lot of people, comic fans AND non-comic fans, enjoyed the first movie enough to actually want to go out and see this one; So I think it’ll do pretty well.
I personally think that The Dark Knight will break box office records I don;t ever recall a hype as big as one for TDK. I was at the movie theater this week end and they are already selling ticket for it. With shows started at 12:25 a.m and running all night. There’s shows starting at 4 and 6 friday morning, i’ve never seen that for a movie. I purchased 4 myself and they are for the second showing that starts at 1 the first show was already sold out.
@ Tyler
DAMN! That sucks for me.
I have never seen as much hype for a movie as this one. Spiderman 3 hype was about half the level that the Dark Knight hype is at, plus with rave reviews I think you it will draw huge crowds. Trust me, Indy got over 300 million and had a very weak audience from the younger generation was not nearly as anticipated as the dark knight is (At least from the word of mouth I have heard) Im predicting 300 million plus box office and 120 million plus opening weekend from the Dark Knight…
@ Dan
Iron Man got like a 96% on Rotten Tomatoes which is excellent and it made a huge boat load of money. I think TDK will make around the same amount if not a little more.
Warner Bros is trying to tone down the hype a little, but even they are predicting 90-100 million opening now. Many industry insiders are saying $130 million plus now. When the studio is trying “tone things down” and still saying 90-100 is a more modest projection it’s looking HUGE! Still don’t think it will pass $150 million but looking like it’s more and more possible every day. Here in Baltimore I’ve heard rumors of 3am, 6am and 9am shows at many venues Friday morning.
I’ll still say it’s won’t break Spiderman 3’s three day record but I’ll have to say I think $120 million opening weekend is looking more and more likely now with every passing day. That might actually be conservative, unless the time of the film and the dark subject matter hurts it like some (now less and less) industry insiders think it will.
TDK was a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes a day or two ago and haven’t read a bad review yet and now the bigger name critics reviews are rolling with nothing but praise. It’ll be bigger than Iron Man as long as the dark tone and time (which is a bigger factor because it will lessen the show times per day by one showing per screen) doesn’t detract from the crowds
Sahil,
You can’t compare the box office totals of Titanic to anything now because it was out for so much longer than a movie is now. Most people I know don’t even go to the movies anymore, they just wait for movies to come out on DVD because it will be out in only a bout 3-4 months in many cases. That has really hurt movies racking in more and more money. Now studios are looking to milk as much as possible in the first couple weekends, after that it’s all gravy.
I think the movie industry has really suffered for it to be honest. Movies like The Dark Knight with the hype around it in the old days at these ticket prices running for at least 8 to 10 months your talking about it pulling in something like $500 million at least.
Star Wars in 1977 with ticket prices many place $1.50 and $2 at the most brought in almost $220-240 million in it’s first run in 77 and 78 because there was no video or dvd, no internet for bootlegs. You either went to the movies to see it or you didn’t see it. It’s not like that now.
The Dark Knight will make over $300 million, almost no doubt in my mind. Looking like it will pull in well over $200 million in it’s first ten days alone.
Hey Ronnie,
If we turn out to be wrong, that’s fine. This was a speculative article, not a hard core prediction.
Vic
After watching Hellboy2 in a theater with kids, I have no doubt that the dark tone will have NO EFFECT on the BO totals.
For every responsable family there will be 3 others that don’t give a,,,,
I lost a lot of respect for Vic when he gave Hancock a good review and predicted this movie would only make 60-80 mill. Batman will RAPE mama mia and space chimps, and will also make more money than iron man. 100 mill+ probably more like 150 in the opening. Heaths dead, everyone is marketing this and tickets are being sold out at a ridiculous pace. Doritos and Dominoes both have this in their commercials, I mean wtf.
Yeah dude, real easy now that we’re a week out to make a “prediction” of $150MM with all the info that’s come out in the entire MONTH since this article was written.
Maybe you can wait until the Friday box office numbers come in and then make a more accurate prediction, eh?
So I liked Hancock, big deal. It got weak towards the end but overall it was entertaining. It’s been out only one week and has made over $140MM so I must not be alone in my opinion.
And finally, pay attention: I didn’t write this article.
Vic
Hancock is down 45% as of Friday.
(I’m not aiming this at anyone) but in my opinion, there’s a lot more ppl out there with BAD tatse in movies and tv then there are smart ppl with higher standards in film and Tv.
You can just see this in the reality shows and throwaway movies we get nowadays.
Hancock blew, compaired to HellBoy2. (Imo)
Yeah call me a sellout to big Studios.
(Heehee)
I just saw a Comcast commercial on tv that had a family in Gotham and the daughter walks in with a activated can of Fear Toxin. The father is holding up a copy of Gotham times. The whole ad is sponsered by TDK…
This is getting sureal.
I remember that the first Batman (Keaton) film was just like this for its day.
There was no internet then but the posters and buzz were very much the same for the time.
Warner Bro’s just called and said that they want their money back cause I was ragging on the Conmcast AD and my spelling and grammer sucks.
Gheesh.
790,
I agree Hellboy 2 was much better than Hancock…hancock wasn’t that good and I was sad to see it only dropped 45% because it doesn’t say much for moviegoers taste anymore. I was expecting and actually wanting to see a nice big 60% drop for that movie, would have renewed my faith in the movie going public a little more to be honest with you. I think Will Smith is just as cool as the next guy but come on, crap is crap
Vic is entiled to like whatever he wants btw. Hancock was decent till the 3rd act and then it fell apart IMO…see, my opinion. I was really looking forward (and still am of course) to TDK coming out but was only saying it would make 70-80 million about a month ago…looks like I was WAY off now of course and I revised it recently to 120 million which could still be low, but like Vic said I’ll make come in and make my final prediction next Monday, lol
Vic,
Might not have been a hard core prediction on here but I had money on it with someone it wouldn’t break 100 million in three days….how stupid and broke do I look now? lol
Anyone else watching the Gotham Tonight episodes on Comcast on demand? Some pretty cool stuff, better acting than some movies out right now, lol. Being a big Batman geek this is on par or even bigger than 1989 because of the internet. I’m in nerd nirvana, lol
Sahil, sorry about the lapse. I did read this “18 percent” from a pretty good source, but my router went out July RD
and my documents didn’t get the attention they deserved.
By the time I got everything straightened out and I read
your question; I forgot where I’d seen that. I thought it was in the production notes, or an interview with Wally Pfister, when they were shooting in Chicago. I didn’t find it though.
However, Neil Miller posted an article July 7 @ FilmSchoolrejects that pretty much states 20-30 minutes. Last time I checked 18% is somewhere between those two values. So the article I read that from reflects other sources.
Anyway, lesson learned.
I’ll make sure I get my source saved next time.
“Yeah dude, real easy now that we’re a week out to make a “prediction” of $150MM with all the info that’s come out in the entire MONTH since this article was written.
Maybe you can wait until the Friday box office numbers come in and then make a more accurate prediction, eh?”
LOL
Ronnie
“Sahil, sorry about the lapse. I did read this “18 percent” from a pretty good source, but my router went out July RD
and my documents didn’t get the attention they deserved.
By the time I got everything straightened out and I read
your question; I forgot where I’d seen that. I thought it was in the production notes, or an interview with Wally Pfister, when they were shooting in Chicago. I didn’t find it though.
However, Neil Miller posted an article July 7 @ FilmSchoolrejects that pretty much states 20-30 minutes. Last time I checked 18% is somewhere between those two values. So the article I read that from reflects other sources.
Anyway, lesson learned.”
No problem.
790
“Yeah call me a sellout to big Studios.
(Heehee)
I just saw a Comcast commercial on tv that had a family in Gotham and the daughter walks in with a activated can of Fear Toxin. The father is holding up a copy of Gotham times. The whole ad is sponsered by TDK…
This is getting sureal.
I remember that the first Batman (Keaton) film was just like this for its day.
There was no internet then but the posters and buzz were very much the same for the time.”
I saw another Comcast/TDK commercial similar to the one that you saw…it was a mom coming home with her kids and she says “Gothm City is going crazy…there was a joker shooting up this bus”.
If the hype for TDK is similar to the original Batman which made $411M worldwide it would be $712M approximately after inflation. I think the studios would be happy with that amount today.
Right on Sahil,
yeah they could make a movie on the marketing alone for this movie.
There taking little bits from the film in those Comcast ads. Trippy Ads.
According to my sources:
If every seat possible is sold next weekend….the BO gross could be 193 mil. But we shall see soon !
790
“Hancock is down 45% as of Friday.
(I’m not aiming this at anyone) but in my opinion, there’s a lot more ppl out there with BAD tatse in movies and tv then there are smart ppl with higher standards in film and Tv.
Hancock blew, compaired to HellBoy2. (Imo)”
I dont think its fare to say whats good or not and how smart people are based on what they watch in theaters or home.
Hancock could have been the one of the worst movie ever made and it still would have made a lot of money just b/c it has Will Smith and it came out on July 4th weekend.
On the other hand a movie like Hellboy 2 is only going to get a small percentage of Hancock viewers just because there is no big names and it doesnt appeal to everyone.
Every seat possible will not be sold out guaranteed! Some people and I am not talking about hardcore fans here but some people will wait for the crowds to die down a little. It could make alot of money the following m-f and s-s. I am guessing $185 for the first 10 days.
Yeah my official prediction will stay at 160+
Gonna be a great weekend.
@Sahil,
I dont think its fare to say whats good or not and how smart people are based on what they watch in theaters or home.
(Your doing it right now Sahil)
If its not fair to say what’s good or not, there’s not going to be alot to discuss here.
And…..
I can make value judgements based on what I see in relation to my opinions. Do it all the time.
This is Screen Rant, not the Communist China state run movie blog…..
@ 790
I guess what I am trying to say is that
just because YOU didnt like Hancock it doest mean its a bad movie or that the people who liked it were not smart.
And since when does a movie have to be good for it to make money?
Ex.
Norbit = $34M opening weekend
Cloverfield = $40M opening weekend
Meet The Spartans = $18.5M opening weeken
Sahil thank’s for your opinion,,,
Sahil,
I think it will do around $180 to $200 million for the first 10 days. It’s monday total will more than likely will top $10 million alone. Not many movies top that on a non holiday monday that aren’t huge blockbusters. Just say it makes $100 million this weekend and $50 million it’s second weekend it’s monday through thursday totals at an average of around 8 million your talking a 10 ten day total $182 million, very realistic numbers now it seems.
If it does more than $130 million this coming weekend all bets are off, lol.
actually the first Batman made $250 worldwide which with inflation is over 400 million in today’s terms
Given the fact its in a record 4366 venues they have added 1500 plus counting showings there are at least 700-1000 midnight showings sold out some theaters are showing it for 72 hours straight, the hype and the heath factor- it should definitely break Spiderfluff’s record 160 million predication
@ Dave
“actually the first Batman made $250 worldwide which with inflation is over 400 million in today’s terms”
What?
The original Batman made $411 worldwide before inflation. After inflation it is $712M.
1000 midnight shows sold out? what is that 500 seats each? at $10 a pop is still only $5M right? thats only a small percentage of the total weekend gross. Offcourse the midnight shows are sold out! I’ve said this b4 that they shoulda opened this movie on Wed or maybe even Thurs. That woulda been better overall for the WB.
Looks like you were wrong, good sir:
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117989204.html?categoryid=13&cs=1
$60 million in the first 24 hours alone. BETTER than Spider-Man 3 (likely due to the fact that it’s…well, better than Spider-Man 3). It could gross only a third as much for the next two days and still reach a hundred million.
Personally, I’m thinking it’ll finish somewhere in the $125-130 million range, which is actually a bit more conservative than what some of the fanboys are saying. Believe it or not, I’ve seen a couple of yahoos make predictions as high as $200 million.
There’s no question that The Dark Knight will become the third movie this year to break $300 million - the question is by how much. I think it’ll bow out with about $375 million - about as much as Spider-Man 2 made.
@ BBQ Platypus
Thats a pretty good observation. What do you think will make more Indy 4 or TDK? For Worldwide that is. Indy is currenty at $775M
Hey, if it turns out we were wrong I’ll be glad - TDK deserves to make a ton of money. And as to the prediction being off… if we could predict the future we wouldn’t be writing about movie news - we’d be playing the stock market.
Vic
160 1st weekend
70 2nd weekend
42 3rd weekend
25 4th weekend
15 5th weekend
10 6th weekend
6 7th weekend with a final domestic box office tally of
450-460 million dollars whuuu-ha-ha-ha!!!
Wow…just got back from seeing the movie and thats all I can say right now is WOW. What an incredible film!
So back to the box office stuff, 66.4 million first day is what is being thrown around right now and while the next two days will see nice sizable declines of course it’s still looking like $150 million is very possible…but still think 120-130 mill is a safer bet.
I went to an 11am show which was about 80% full but when I bought the tickets this morning all the 5pm and beyond shows were already sold out in advance…at 9:10am!!! HUGE is about the best way to sum it up right now.
Can’t wait till I’m in Vegas next week so I can see it in IMAX at the Palms…sure I’ll more than likely see it at least once in between as well, lol.
IMAX showings are sold out this weekend in my area.
@ greenknight333
160 1st weekend
70 2nd weekend
42 3rd weekend
25 4th weekend
15 5th weekend
10 6th weekend
6 7th weekend with a final domestic box office tally of
450-460 million dollars whuuu-ha-ha-ha!!!
All that only comes out to $318M. How did you get to $450? Even when it makes money after the 7th week it wont be another $120M.
Well, looks like the author was totally incorrect.
@Vic Holtreman
What’s the point of predicting B.O. numbers at all then, when by your own admission, you don’t really know what you’re talking about? I’ll tell you why anyone does it: To get fanboy bragging rights at predicting failure.
It’s symptomatic of the whole ‘Have a movie website = expert on movies’ phenomena that’s plaguing the ought’s pretty heavily.
Articles like this, make your site just another misinformed, off the mark, uneducated fanboy site.
And btw, I came here because Jaimie was plugging this article on CHUD, I can only assume to brag about his correctness had TDK performed below par.
Not writing when you don’t you don’t know your subject matter: something to think about. Seriously.
@brosef
Holy SHite Dude!! It’s called an opinion…Don’t be a misinformed misanthrope who mitigates masochistic morals and marginally makes this medium a moronic display of your ignorance. You’re like all the other fanboys who come to this site and try to start immature arguements because you disagree with someone’s opinion..I have a mathmatics degree, a health sciences degree and I read four - five books a month(so I am well read)… not fiction BS either..I read books about things that I want to get more informed about. Your comment of “make your site just another misinformed, off the mark, uneducated fanboy site” was way off the mark. This is one of the few… and I mean few places…where we are allowed to have adult opinions on things without having to resort to your “high School” antics..Really, I mean, grow-up ‘Bro” and state your case in a more polite and educated manner…Now go lie in the corner by your dish until your master beckons you…GOOD BOY!!!
Sahill…Weekday numbers dude which usually account for another third of weekend BO receipts…
brosef, I think your a…………………….(Spam Filter Mark.V 7.3) has altered your comment 790 !……………………Poopy face!
@brosef I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The above article was speculative opinion, not the @$@%ing word of God - got it?
Now unless you have biblical-level prophetic powers, I’d advice you to stop throwing stones.
I was just being forthright in my comment above and I’m big enough to admit when I or one of my writers is wrong. But if you feel the need to be disrespectful - by all means if it makes you feel like a bigger man.
Vic
@ brosef, I want to be on your film website which so accurately predicted “The Dark Knight’s” weekend take. It’s clearly so much better than here. I know you must be a great insider. You must have been one of those astute suits that is responsible for all those commercials aimed at kids under 13 I’m seeing on TV that pumped up TDK’s numbers.
Insiders like that sicken me!
Yeah… Well, your probably not one of those, but you have a pretty narrow view or maybe you feel like Vic hit too close to home with the Nerdgasm crack.. I think Vic was hoping some people would show some restraint! What I saw at my viewing of TDK, in a right wing town, I might add, were plenty of small kids under 13 sitting in the audience which I thought was very disappointing. Disappointing, that parents didn’t know that much about the movie. How do I know? I listened to people before, and after the showing. Working mothers and fathers are so very busy, family time is reduced to a 2.5 hr expo. that would have made Aldous Huxley shake his head. I’m not trying to take anything from TDK either. It just shouldn’t be marketed this way. I hope you left your kids under 13 home or they have enough trust and rapport with you to feel comfortable to talk about what they saw.
Good luck on your site and let every one know who you are. I, for one, want to make sure I&#