Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.

For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from The Mummy‘s opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.

Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of June 16 – 18, 2017.

This weekend, Cars 3 plays in 4,256 theaters, Rough Night debuts in 3,162 locations, 47 Meters Down opens in 2,300 theaters, and All Eyez On Me plays in 2,471 theaters.

#1 – Cars 3

Our pick for first this weekend is Cars 3 (read our review), the latest effort from Pixar. Though this particular franchise hasn’t been the studio’s most critically adored series, it’s still a sizable moneymaker for the animation powerhouse. Back in 2006, the first installment grossed $244 million domestically, and the 2011 sequel earned $191.4 million. Cars 2 is by far the worst-reviewed film Pixar has made, but even that was critic-proof to some effect. What helps Cars 3 is that the word-of-mouth is far more positive than its predecessor, with pundits praising its surprisingly emotional story and beautiful animation. While it hasn’t scaled the heights of some of Pixar’s best offerings, the sequel has still left an impression, which will help its commercial prospects.

Also giving Cars 3 a boost is the fact that its target demographic is one that has largely been underserved so far this summer. DreamWorks debuted Captain Underpants two weeks ago, but that film largely came and went without much fan fare. A new film from Pixar is obviously much more high-profile, and families will be flocking to theaters to check it out. The Cars brand certainly appeals to the juice box crowd, and one should never underestimate that element when trying to prognosticate the box office. Tracking indicates a $56 million opening weekend, which would be a little lower than Cars 2, but still a decent opening.

Lightning McQueen and Cruze Ramirez in Cars 3 Box Office Prediction: Cars 3 vs. Wonder Woman

#2 – Wonder Woman

Look for the two-time reigning champ, Wonder Woman (read our review), to slide to second in its third weekend. The latest installment in the DC Extended Universe has been a rare bright spot so far this season, raking in $227.8 million domestically so far during its run. Given how enthusiastic the response has been, Wonder Woman is sure to be a top earner again over the next three days. However, since it’s had a couple of weeks to itself, the hype is cooling down a bit and it should lose the pole position to Cars 3.

#3 – Rough Night

Coming in third should be Rough Night (read our review), a new R-rated comedy starring Scarlett Johansson as a bride-to-be whose bachelorette party goes south when a male stripper is accidentally murdered. Though the critical reactions haven’t been all that flattering, the reviews can be categorized more as “mixed” than “negative.” Many are in agreement that the main ensemble gives good performances across the board. The cast includes well-known names like Zoe Kravitz, Jillian Bell, and Kate McKinnon (who is a comedy superstar thanks to Saturday Night Live and various film projects). Also, this is a genre that tends to do well at the box office. An obvious comparison is Bridesmaids, which brought in $169.1 million in 2011. With star power and an interesting premise, Rough Night should do well for itself in its opening frame. Projections are currently set at $16 million.

Rough Night movie cast Box Office Prediction: Cars 3 vs. Wonder Woman

#4 – All Eyez On Me

Our pick for fourth is All Eyez On Me, the biopic of legendary rapper Tupac Shakur. Tupac is an artist with a wide following and remains popular to this day (more than 20 years after his death), so there was an interest in seeing a film depicting his interesting life and career. Unfortunately for those hoping All Eyez On Me could be an early awards season contender, the movie has earned mostly negative reviews, with many calling its story unfocused in its execution. That could hurt the film’s box office prospects, since the word-of-mouth isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. Even the most die-hard Tupac fans may not want to see a film that’s so poorly received. Projections point to $20 million in its first three days, but we believe since the reviews are worse than Rough Night, the comedy will top the biopic.

#5 – The Mummy

Rounding out the top five should be The Mummy (read our review), which landed with a thud last week, making $31.6 million in its first three days. There’s very little interest in this Tom Cruise vehicle in the States, and that’s unlikely to change with some more new releases taking attention away. Universal’s Dark Universe has some scary days ahead domestically.

Last Week’s Recap

Our Picks:

  • Wonder Woman
  • The Mummy
  • Captain Underpants
  • It Comes At Night
  • Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Actuals:

  • Wonder Woman
  • The Mummy
  • Captain Underpants
  • Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Next Week: Transformers: The Last Knight, Cars 3, and more!

Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)

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